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Am I just paying off this river every time?

  
 
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epic
Old 08-06-2008, 02:44 AM     Post subject: Am I just paying off this river every time? #1 (permalink)  

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epic
I had no real read on the guy-hadn't really done anything worth noticing until this hand...

After the preflop, flop, and turn action, I couldn't fathom losing to this, but I probably shouldn't have capped the river.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB caps, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) , , (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

River: (20.50 BB) (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Final Pot: 31.50 BB

Results in white below:
BB has 4c 3c (straight, six high).
Hero has Qh Qs (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: BB wins 31.50 BB.
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Old 08-06-2008, 02:47 AM #2 (permalink)  
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there's a ONE CARD straight on the board
just call river
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okiman
Old 08-06-2008, 04:22 AM #3 (permalink)  
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okiman
Take more experienced players' advice before you take mine and this is where one of my major leaks is going to show (too damn much river aggression). Having said that...

First, I'd raise the flop. BB showed enough pf strength, you don't need to wait for the turn to raise. Besides, at these levels most players wait for the turn to raise w/ strength anyway, so a flop raise is often interpreted as weaker than a turn raise and is a good way to build a big pot while driving out the trash hands.

On the river, I raise too. I know BB had a 4, but given the pf and flop/turn action, I just can't put BB on a 4. It's just you and a person who capped pf. Jam it!
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Old 08-06-2008, 05:31 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by okiman
Take more experienced players' advice before you take mine and this is where one of my major leaks is going to show (too damn much river aggression). Having said that...

First, I'd raise the flop. BB showed enough pf strength, you don't need to wait for the turn to raise. Besides, at these levels most players wait for the turn to raise w/ strength anyway, so a flop raise is often interpreted as weaker than a turn raise and is a good way to build a big pot while driving out the trash hands.

On the river, I raise too. :oops: I know BB had a 4, but given the pf and flop/turn action, I just can't put BB on a 4. It's just you and a person who capped pf. Jam it!
I can put him on a 4 because he's bad.
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KoRnholio
Old 08-06-2008, 05:44 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Note that the BB capped preflop. This is an overplayed aces probably about as often as 4x/44.

I like a flop smooth call because we don't want to fold out anyone with an Ax type hand. If they hit that ace (or lower set!) you'll get a ton of action to make up for the delayed raise. I raise the river but just call the 3bet though.
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Old 08-06-2008, 05:59 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Yes, I definitely don't cap; this is just spew. Raising is debatable.
If you just call, result = 0 BB

If you raise:
If the villain has a straight, he 3-bets and you call. Result = -2BB
If the villain has AA/KK, he calls. Result = + 1BB

he has to have AA/KK 66%+ of the time for this play to be profitable

if it's as often as a 4, then raising is not worth it
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DrivingDog
Old 08-06-2008, 09:16 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
I can put him on a 4 because he's bad.
You sensed that before you looked at the results? Amazing...

I'm capping this river every time. He's spewing AA or KK here waaaaaay more often than sucking out with 4x.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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Fnord
Old 08-06-2008, 10:18 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Raise the flop.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-06-2008, 01:41 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Yes, I definitely don't cap; this is just spew. Raising is debatable.
If you just call, result = 0 BB

If you raise:
If the villain has a straight, he 3-bets and you call. Result = -2BB
If the villain has AA/KK, he calls. Result = + 1BB

he has to have AA/KK 66%+ of the time for this play to be profitable

if it's as often as a 4, then raising is not worth it
These calculations are somewhat correct, but you're not incorporating the times he has 66/33 here for a lower set. There are way more combinations of AA, KK, lower set out there than the number of possible hands that include a 4 in his range. In fact I would rarely expect a 4 in his range after previous action. I like the river raise and frankly I'd have a hard time not capping this river too given the action on the previous streets. Capping the river probably has the least amount of risk to it because our villain is calling 100% of his range and can't 5 bet us.


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Old 08-06-2008, 04:41 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
I can put him on a 4 because he's bad.
You sensed that before you looked at the results? Amazing...

I'm capping this river every time. He's spewing AA or KK here waaaaaay more often than sucking out with 4x.
I know he has the four when he 3-bets on the river, at least. It takes a huge hand to make a fish raise.

In terms of a lower set, if you can put him on 66, you can put him on 44.
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epic
Old 08-06-2008, 09:43 PM #11 (permalink)  

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epic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Raise the flop.
I think if the SB had been before me and called BB's bet, I would have.

Ordinarily, given the preflop action, I want to keep them both around as long as possible. After playing a few rounds with BB after this hand, I found he was just bleeding chips all over the place-he basically limped every hand and went to the turn/river with any flopped pair/3-draw. Had he been at the table a few more rounds before this hand, I would have jammed the flop.
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