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Am I ever good here?

  
 
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midas06
Old 01-12-2006, 01:23 PM     Post subject: Am I ever good here? #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A.
1 fold, MP calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7, T, 2 (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, CO calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 7 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (11 BB) T (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero ?
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koolmoe
Old 01-12-2006, 01:39 PM #2 (permalink)  
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You are good sometimes, but not often enough against two hands that will call to bet. I check behind every time.
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G_host
Old 01-12-2006, 01:55 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by koolmoe
You are good sometimes, but not often enough against two hands that will call to bet. I check behind every time.
That and BB bets the flop also checking behind.
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Old 01-12-2006, 05:55 PM #4 (permalink)  
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you take it down more than 33.(3)% of the time at my stakes because 99.8% of the time check on the river means "I have crap, but I'll call you"
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koolmoe
Old 01-12-2006, 06:29 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
you take it down more than 33.(3)% of the time at my stakes because 99.8% of the time check on the river means "I have crap, but I'll call you"
You have to be good more than 1/3 of the time.

First, you won't always get two callers. 89 will fold the river. So even if you aren't raised, you still have to good maybe 40% of the time or so.

Second, you will get check-raised by a T every time someone holds one. If you plan to call down, that further increases the percentage of time you must be good.
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elipsesjeff
Old 01-12-2006, 06:40 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 If I'm playing 100% correctly, I value bet this but if I'm running bad I'd probably check behind too to further increase my running badness. I think he's good here without a read against your opponents, the BB is likely donking the flop correctly with a pocket pair, say 66-99 or even worse and the CO is more likely to have two overcards or an Ace that will still call you, as will a King sometimes too.

I don't like checking behind on situations where you are getting 2/1 on all your bets with a good hand. Also, you don't have to win this 33% of the time to be profitable, i'd say its around 20% or less with my fuzzy mental math.

First, sometimes you'll bet and get both callers and will net you 2 bets. Othertimes you'll bet and get 1 caller and will net you 1 bet. Thirdly, you can bet and get no callers netting you zero but your hand remains a mystery to your opponent. Finally, you bet and get check raised, costing you 2 bets. Its no longer a win one lose two situation.


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JJDylan
Old 01-12-2006, 07:38 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
If I'm playing 100% correctly, I value bet this but if I'm running bad I'd probably check behind too to further increase my running badness. I think he's good here without a read against your opponents, the BB is likely donking the flop correctly with a pocket pair, say 66-99 or even worse and the CO is more likely to have two overcards or an Ace that will still call you, as will a King sometimes too.

I don't like checking behind on situations where you are getting 2/1 on all your bets with a good hand. Also, you don't have to win this 33% of the time to be profitable, i'd say its around 20% or less with my fuzzy mental math.

First, sometimes you'll bet and get both callers and will net you 2 bets. Othertimes you'll bet and get 1 caller and will net you 1 bet. Thirdly, you can bet and get no callers netting you zero but your hand remains a mystery to your opponent. Finally, you bet and get check raised, costing you 2 bets. Its no longer a win one lose two situation.

interesting....i still dont know if i could bet that river though
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koolmoe
Old 01-12-2006, 08:40 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I don't like checking behind on situations where you are getting 2/1 on all your bets with a good hand. Also, you don't have to win this 33% of the time to be profitable, i'd say its around 20% or less with my fuzzy mental math.
I don't think your logic is correct.

When you get called in two places, you have to be good 33% of the time. Suppose the percentage of time you are good is x1.

When you get called in one spot, you have to be good 50%. Suppose the percentage of time you are good is x2.

When you get no calls, you are good by default. No better hand is folding. Suppose the percentage of time you are good is x3.

The rest of the time you are check-raised (1-x1-x2-x3). Assume that you are behind 100% of the time when you are check-raised (not necessarily true) and that you call the raise. Further assume that you will never have to call more than one raise to see a showdown.

The percentage of time you are good is x1 + x2 + x3.

Your EV on your river bet is:

EV = 2x1 + x2 - 2*(1-x1-x2-x3).

If x1 + x2 + x3 = 0.2 then this simplifies to

EV = 2x1 + x2 - 1.6

If x1 = 0.2 (can't be greater than this) then x2 = 0 and EV = -1.2

If x1 + x2 +x3 = 0.33 then

EV = 2x1 + x2 - 1.33

Again, if x1 = 0.33 then EV = -0.67.

If x1 + x2 +x3 = 0.5 then

EV = 2x1 + x2 - 1

If x1 = 0.5 then EV = 0.

Since some of the time you will only win one bet and some of the time you will win no bets, you have to be good more than 50% if you plan to call a check-raise. For example, if x1 = 0.2, then x2 = 0.4 gives the minimum percentage of time (for a total of 60%) that you must be good.
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ArcticKnight
Old 01-13-2006, 12:57 AM #9 (permalink)  
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If I had to guess it looks like the CO missed a draw but the BB might have 10/9 and be worried about kicker problems and thus checked the turn, and then would have to be slow playing the river hoping for a CR.

But, having said that, BB would have played all three streets incorrectly with his 109. Is that likely??

IMO Is it more likely that there is an AX out there than a 10x.

I can't see the BB or Co playing any 7 this way either.....

This is an odd one,
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koolmoe
Old 01-13-2006, 01:09 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcticKnight
If I had to guess it looks like the CO missed a draw but the BB might have 10/9 and be worried about kicker problems and thus checked the turn, and then would have to be slow playing the river hoping for a CR.

But, having said that, BB would have played all three streets incorrectly with his 109. Is that likely??

IMO Is it more likely that there is an AX out there than a 10x.

I can't see the BB or Co playing any 7 this way either.....

This is an odd one,
Small pairs are possible, but only 88 and 99 are calling. 22-66 just got counterfeited.
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midas06
Old 01-13-2006, 02:48 AM #11 (permalink)  
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I checked behind, and both the CO and BB had 89 on the OESD.

If the turn didn't pair the board, and they both checked/called the turn, it would have given their hands away, yet it looked like slowplaying trips.
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Mike_Ann
Old 01-26-2006, 07:08 PM #12 (permalink)  

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I would Check here.
At least 1 of them have fullhouse. Why try to win 1 BB and could have lose 2 BB by check raise. Since you chance winning so minimal. 1 of them might wait for your bet to check raise you. Low Limit it happen all the time
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