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AKs, second thoughts on the river

  
 
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G_host
Old 06-07-2006, 07:52 PM     Post subject: AKs, second thoughts on the river #1 (permalink)  
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Starting to begin playing a bit more after had a unwanted break due to my lousy ISP. Was going for a checkraise on the river but started to have second thoughts when it was time to raise. This is a sure reraise or?

Opponent is 20/12 over 40 hands, seems like to open raise LP with anything halfgood, otherwise my read is just normal tight Aggro.

FulltILT 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K.
5 fold, CO raises, Hero raises, 2 fold, CO calls

Flop: (7.50 SB) K, K, Q (2 players)
CO bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 5 (2 players)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO raises,Hero calls

River: (10.75 BB) 8 (2 players)
CO bets, Hero ??
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Nehmer
Old 06-07-2006, 08:06 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I'm probably just capping the turn and seeing if he still bets out the river.
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thenonsequitur
Old 06-07-2006, 08:23 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I also cap this turn.

And at the end of this orbit I'd consider finding a better seat. Sounds like this guy isn't giving easy money to you, and is probably good at taking stabs at your blinds. Not a fun place to sit.
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G_host
Old 06-07-2006, 08:48 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Well the reason for the call on the turn was to get him to bet on the river but then I hesitated to reraise. Shoulda gone for the cap instead.
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euphoricism
Old 06-07-2006, 10:26 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Cap it, call one on the river.
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Fnord
Old 06-07-2006, 11:57 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Cap the turn because you're good here a lot and when you're not he can't 5-bet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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6high
Old 06-10-2006, 04:24 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Call/call is my preferred line here against a sane opponent.

These situations will come up often and unless you are against a complete maniac, call/call gives the best profit ratio. You've told this guy you've got a strong hand and he doesn't care. AK, KQ, QQ, AA and KJ are going to be his most likely hands.
You beat 10, lose to 9 and tie w/ 3. If you discount AA or KJ by 1 combo, it's a tied ballgame.

This hand (like many others you will face) is about keeping that 50:50 balance from tipping into your opponents favour.

If you call/call: you will win 4BB when ahead and lose 4BB when behind.
If you call and raise the river: you will win 5BB when ahead but lose 5-6BB when behind.
If you cap the turn and call a river bet: you will win 5BB when ahead and lose 5BB when behind. But he is much more likely to check when behind, so this is not as appealing as it seems.
If you cap the turn and bet the river if checked to: you will win 5BB when ahead and lose 5-6BB when he checkraises the river with his better hands.

So as you can see, call/call will produce the most consistent results.
Obviously the more wild your opponent is, the wider his hand range is and the more the equation swings in your favour and capping or waiting to raise both have their advantages depending on how wide his range is. If you can add KT and K9 to his hand range, any of the other line options are going to produce better results because the ratio is now better than 50:50. In this case (adding K9/KT) it's 60:30:10 and will overcome the 6:5 or 5:4 deficit.

BTW.
There is one more thing to think about in hands like this. You have outs on the turn when behind.
So against QQ and KQ your opponent doesn't have 100% equity.
You have an average of 3.66 outs against these hands on the turn. So effectively you are putting in only 91% of a BB when behind.
But this also works in reverse. His AA has two outs and KJ has 6 outs(3/3).

Though not so important in this hand it can make a difference in strategy, especially if your opponent will always try for a c/r on the river with his better hands. It does come up occassionally where a "free showdown cap" is the best play.
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G_host
Old 06-11-2006, 05:45 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Well shoulda capped and call the river. Now I didn't dare to reraise as I originally planned and just called the river. He showed A4o and I left when the blinds came to me.
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outphase
Old 06-11-2006, 02:20 PM     Post subject: Re: AKs, second thoughts on the river #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G_host
Starting to begin playing a bit more after had a unwanted break due to my lousy ISP. Was going for a checkraise on the river but started to have second thoughts when it was time to raise. This is a sure reraise or?
maybe it's just semantics, but your terminology is off here.

how do you check/raise in position and you can't reraise when there is only 1 bet in front of you
Quote:
Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
 
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G_host
Old 06-11-2006, 04:10 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Yeah it got a bit wrong there. But hey people got my meaning anyway
Such a smart bunch here at FTR
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