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AK TPTK in position on draw heavy board

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snowboard_31

01-26-2008, 02:43 AM Post subject: AK TPTK in position on draw heavy board

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Mar 2007

Posts: 206

No reads, after a cap pre I put his range as AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQs, JJ. I had no read so i kept JJ in though i think its a bit of a stretch.

Full Tilt 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K

, A

.
3 folds, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP3 caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) K

, 9

, J

(4 players)
MP3 bets, CO folds, Hero raises, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 6

(3 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero .....

This line seems pretty set heavy but its a must c/c down right?

1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
-soupie
"If you can pinpoint a player's range, you can own his soul."
-Bond18

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DrivingDog

01-27-2008, 12:59 AM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Yes. Folding here is just plain bad. The main reason is that a large part of his range is AK, and we are guaranteed to split the pot in that case. Also AQ hearts is in most player's turn raising range and so it is a must call down situation.

Our equity vs. his turn raising range:

AA (3 hands): we have 2 outs
KK, JJ (4 hands): we're drawing dead
AK (4 hands): guaranteed split - equivalent to 22 outs
AQ hearts (1 hand): villian has 12 outs - we win on other 32 cards but villian will usually check behind if he misses the river.

So we are up against 12 possible hands, with an average of 10.5 outs for us. We're presumably going to put in one more bet on the turn and river regardless (raising a river A is of no value since AA, KK, JJ will 3bet us, raising a river K is neutral EV as JJ will 3bet and AA will just call). That means we're paying 2 more bets for the chance to win 15.75 and with ~ 23% equity calling down is +EV.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

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AK TPTK in position on draw heavy board

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