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AK hits in an out of control pot.

  
 
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Fnord
Old 06-10-2005, 11:02 AM     Post subject: AK hits in an out of control pot. #1 (permalink)  
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I think every post-flop street is debateable.

UTG is kinda TAggy
BB is even tighter and also pretty aggro

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is Button with K, A.
UTG raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Fnord 3-bets, SB calls, BB caps, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Fnord calls, SB calls.

Flop: (28 SB) K, 2, T (7 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Fnord calls, SB calls.

Turn: (17 BB) 7 (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG raises, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Fnord 3-bets, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls.

River: (24 BB) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Fnord bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 26 BB

I will poop on anyone that says "raise the flop" without backing it up with a good argument.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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stuck
Old 06-10-2005, 12:40 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I think it looks OK. No point in pumping whatever draws people have by raising the flop. I like the 3-bet on the turn - gets the showdown to headsup at least. I guess BB had something like QQ and you and UTG both split with AK?
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TylerK
Old 06-10-2005, 12:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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SSH says not to raise the flop here with a vulnerable hand against a bunch of opponents, but they're talking about hands that are easily counterfeited like TT as an overpair. I think here it's clear what cards constitute scare cards on the turn, and what draws are likely. I think that, knowing how many cards are likely to come that beat you, you should raise the flop for value. There is an AA hand in SSH that I think is similar to this one.
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TylerK
Old 06-10-2005, 01:04 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Meh, just flat calling the flop LOOKS right, but I really want to say a raise is right. I need to think about this one more.
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TylerK
Old 06-10-2005, 02:36 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Pokerstove was eating my PC so I had to stop it, but here's what it came up with. I gave UTG a reasonable range and BB an extremely tight range to cap with.

465,563,304 games 449.436 secs 1,035,883 games/sec

Board: Kd Td 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.6139 % [ 00.46 00.01 ] { AsKc }
Hand 2: 05.9489 % [ 00.06 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 07.8424 % [ 00.08 00.00 ] { AA-QQ, AKs }
Hand 4: 06.3125 % [ 00.06 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 5: 16.6482 % [ 00.16 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 6: 16.6341 % [ 00.16 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 06-10-2005, 03:06 PM #6 (permalink)  
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i'm raising the flop.

calling the flop and waiting for the turn only applies if doing so can enable your turn raise to make 4 outers call unprofitably, whereas if you raised the flop they could call profitably on the flop and turn.

the pot is so fuckin huge that you MUST push your edge here because no matter what you do, EVERYONE has odds to call. no amount of waiting for this or that can enable you to protect your hand.

hand protection should go out the window. push your pot equity. raise.

edit: calling the flop vs raising the flop should depend on the likelihood that your opponents will bet/raise the turn. if they're gonna be a bunch of sissies and call down after your flop raise, it's better to call the flop and pop them on the turn like you did here.
 
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outphase
Old 06-10-2005, 03:40 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I like the call on the flop. The hand is more profitable on the BB streets and raising the flop only gives your opponents the right odds to call the bet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
 
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TylerK
Old 06-10-2005, 04:04 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by outphase
I like the call on the flop. The hand is more profitable on the BB streets and raising the flop only gives your opponents the right odds to call the bet.
Whether he calls or raises the flop, his opponents have odds to draw to just about anything.
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ChezJ
Old 06-10-2005, 10:54 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 i think what everyone seems to be missing here is that fnord was in LP and the original bettor on the flop was the BB. this means that everyone was already in the pot by the time the action got to him. a raise would have driven out absolutely nobody and given pot odds to every drawing hand to keep calling to the river.

if fnord had been UTG, then a raise on the flop probably would have been the right move b/c it would force the remainder of the field to call two bets cold. totally different situation.

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|~|ypermegachi
Old 06-11-2005, 02:16 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChezJ
if fnord had been UTG, then a raise on the flop probably would have been the right move b/c it would force the remainder of the field to call two bets cold. totally different situation.

ChezJ
given that it was 7 way capped preflop, even if everyone checked to the button who bets, and fnord utg raises, everyone still has odds.

the pot is 28SB on the flop. if button bets, utg raises, that's 31:2, or 15:1 to call.

even if CO bets, button raises, UTG 3bets, everyone after still gets 34:3, or 10:1.

basically, position doesn't change anything here.
 
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TylerK
Old 06-11-2005, 02:33 AM #11 (permalink)  
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I'm with Hyper on this one.
TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
 
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Gatlin Dan
Old 06-11-2005, 06:58 AM #12 (permalink)  
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One TAggy player UTG raises and an even tighter Aggro player cold-caps. Even with Fnord holding AK you have to strongly consider high pairs out against you. Given the reads of the raisers, a set of Kings or AA or both is a real possibility. With seven people seeing the flop, someone is likely drawing for diamonds. Raising the flop here is building a pot you're not going to win very often. Straight draws are a better possibility than what you might first think also. All those callers pre-flop, suggests a higher than normal distribution of high cards. I don't think you can raise the flop here. Too many ways to be beaten.

Semi-dangerous flop with lots of callers in a huge pot with two other TAG's also raising...
TPTK is pretty unattractive.
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StinkyBeaver
Old 06-11-2005, 12:27 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatlin Dan
One TAggy player UTG raises and an even tighter Aggro player cold-caps. Even with Fnord holding AK you have to strongly consider high pairs out against you. Given the reads of the raisers, a set of Kings or AA or both is a real possibility. With seven people seeing the flop, someone is likely drawing for diamonds. Raising the flop here is building a pot you're not going to win very often. Straight draws are a better possibility than what you might first think also. All those callers pre-flop, suggests a higher than normal distribution of high cards. I don't think you can raise the flop here. Too many ways to be beaten.

Semi-dangerous flop with lots of callers in a huge pot with two other TAG's also raising...
TPTK is pretty unattractive.
But If you cannot bet the flop, b/c both AA and KK is real possibilities, why is it then correct to 3-bet a non scare card on the turn.?

3-bet is not going to keep any flush draws out of this pot.

Do you fold to a cap on turn (kind of a silly question I supose since I'll almost never fold TPTK in such a huge pot)
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