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AK catches turn King

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Hermann the Lombard

11-19-2007, 04:23 AM Post subject: AK catches turn King

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, K

.
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 8

, 5

(5 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (8.25 BB) K

(5 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero...

New to the table and though I've seen two of them before I don't have meaningful notes. MP1 is 40/6.7 in very few hands, MP2 has been 69/5.6/1.3 and I've seen him raise PF with air. Mp3 is 63/2.9/0.7. All in all passive postflop.

So, was I overly wimpy checking with my two OC and BDFD after 4 checks? Now I have TP but there may be a flush. An overcall doesn't seem right so it seems like I should raise to protect my alleged best hand, or fold because there are two in already and I'm not last to act. I prefer to raise but it seems I've been getting in trouble with post-flop aggression.

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

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KoRnholio

11-19-2007, 06:37 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

There is nothing wrong with just calling. You can't bet to "protect your hand" when both villains are at least going to call since they already have one bet in the pot.

Call turn, and then fold river if it's a 4th club, bet/raise if it's K or 5, call otherwise.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

DrivingDog

11-19-2007, 11:50 AM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

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Posts: 923

I don't see any point in betting the flop with this many opponents. It's unlikely you'll win UI.

On the turn I'm tempted to raise and fold to a 3bet, but it's close and I don't really mind calling down either. By raising you might convince someone with a weak club to give up, and you charge anyone with a lone club to draw.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

pokerfanatic

11-19-2007, 02:35 PM

#4 (permalink)

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betting the flop you get called basically 99% of the time against this many payers and especially at 0.1/0.2, not c-betting here is completely fine...

calling is not hateful on the turn, if another club hits dump the hand, and if they get crazy on what seems like a blanked river dump the hand...

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord

arborman

11-19-2007, 04:40 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

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Posts: 300

I tend not to bother c-betting flop with more than 2 opponents - someone almost always hit a bottom pair or something and calls.

The exception is when there is a scary flop like this - then there is a decent chance of everyone folding, so I might c-bet half the time here.

If everyone checks the flop you might see people donking just about anything on turn, so it is worth calling down. Against some opponents it is worth raising.

littleogre

11-19-2007, 06:03 PM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2004

Posts: 1,344

littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past

Am i the only one that thinks the fact that the op paired his K on the turn is not that important? If the villans don't have the 5 or a pocket pair A high is likely good. Don't get me wrong i like pairing the K to over take anyone that limped pf with a pocket pair but in the grand scheme of the things however much we win with the turnt kings we win almost as much with out pairing the K and just showing down A high

arborman

11-19-2007, 06:51 PM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

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Posts: 300

Quote:

Originally Posted by littleogre

I'm more worried about the flush than the King. I hope he paired his king and will pay off. I hope he didn't complete a flush - or if he did I hope to see a King or 5 on the river

The point being that even against a flush you have a few outs, and the odds are very good that he just paired his king. Never fold this, and it is a toss up whether to call or raise - depending on the opponents. Yes, sometimes you are paying off, but the odds make it worth a call. If river is a club you can probably let it go.

littleogre

11-19-2007, 07:06 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,344

Quote:

Originally Posted by arborman

Quote:

Originally Posted by littleogre

I'm more worried about the flush than the King. I hope he paired his king and will pay off. I hope he didn't complete a flush - or if he did I hope to see a King or 5 on the river

Actually i was talking about you and not the villan. OP=original post or original poster. I'm saying the fact that you paired your king is almost irrelevant in this hand . If nobody has the 5 then you can win with just A plenty of times. Realy all you did by hiting your K was overtake people who limped in with a pair A'k is actually a decent hand unimproved when the board pairs. By pairing your king though you did do a few things.

1 you gave yourself a fh draw if they have a flush
2 You are now blocking a bluffer from wining by pairing his hole cards on the river.

pokerfanatic

11-19-2007, 09:50 PM

#9 (permalink)

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well little there are so many other hands out there that beat you anyways him having a naked K in a multi way pot is likely to be beat as your AK is...

55 has the nuts KK 2nd, 88, K5, 85, then a flush, then you have basically TPTK and the board happens to be paired... a ton of hands out there beat you badly... i think you over looked that he FD also hit given a person has 2 i nthe hole, if someone has 1 in the hole they can effectively see the river in this pot for any amount... so raising is a complete mistake... only plays i consider is call or fold...

littleogre

11-19-2007, 11:13 PM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2004

Posts: 1,344

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

I know there are lots have hands that beat us. I did not mean to imply that we suddenly had the nuts. Sorry if it sounded like that. I sometimes have a hard time articulating my point.

.

pokerfanatic

11-20-2007, 01:22 AM

#11 (permalink)

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nah i prob just skimed your post i have a habit of doing that at times...

to answer you thoughts on the following...
1) it's 4 outs, assuming you have a lone K if someone else has one it's gonna be less and you're drawing at 1/2 the pot...
2) i would consider if the betting opponent was silly enough to even try a bluff into so many opponents, my guess in this case and a majority the time in gen. players will give up or not bluff 2 rounds with that many callers on the flop... so imo i feel that the player will be holding a decent hand majority the time... besides he'd have to have a pocket pair other then AA, KK, 88, or 55 for him to hit a hole card and beat you... if he has A8 i guess he could spike an 8 but he wont fold anyways... pots to large... if he has say AJ you win regardless if he hits a hole card, you see what i;m getting at here i think...

this is one of those situations where you are either slightly ahead or WAY behind... if the pot was not so large I'd probably just fold... given that we figure to have 4 outs majority the time, and once in a great while be thinly ahead this pot needs to be holding at least 9bb imo for a call to be correct...

KoRnholio

11-20-2007, 01:32 AM

#12 (permalink)

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I like a call mostly because if the villain does have a hand that we beat (ie KT or A8), he will bet or check-call the river when we look up his bet or bet ourselves after he checks. And if the villain has the flush/5x/K8 we save monies.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

DrivingDog

11-20-2007, 11:07 AM

#13 (permalink)

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There's not much chance of someone having two clubs, little chance of a 5 , even less chance of 88, and things like K8, K5, 85, and 55 are very unlikely. I would be amazed to see someone having KK here given the action and the fact that we have a K in our hand and there is one on the board.

We are ahead often enough to make raise/fold correct imo. I would not be at all surprised if one player had a lone club and the other KQ or KJ. No-one is likely to 3bet without a hand that crushes us, so if we get 3bet and fold it costs the same as just calling down, and if a non-club card comes on the river we can bet again for value.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

pokerfanatic

11-20-2007, 01:48 PM

#14 (permalink)

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lol please explain how this is true:

Quote:

There's not much chance of someone having two clubs

also you flop a set 1 in 9 times about so explain how this is also true...

Quote:

even less chance of 88

Also i agree that you are right in part of this statement but only with 55

Quote:

nd things like K8, K5, 85, and 55 are very unlikely.

Given MP1, MP2, MP3 all open limped they probably also going to call just about 98% of there limping hands maybe you get 1 fold with that 3bet preflop once and awhile... so whatever weak hand they felt was good enough to limp they feel they are committed to a flop... so please explain to me how you figure that one of those hands you said were "not very likely" as i quoted above are this way to me clubs are EXTREMELY likely to be floating around out there...

Quote:

I would be amazed to see someone having KK here given the action and the fact that we have a K in our hand and there is one on the board.

it's still a possibility, you have never seen the case card hit before? might not be highly likely and probably as likely as the 55 being out there...

Quote:

We are ahead often enough to make raise/fold correct imo.

that's a mistake, you fonna only get 3 bet by a bettor hand and you tossed away the pot, where if you let a weaker hand bluff not only do you get the same amount of bets in by calling down you also win a pot you would have lost... tell me what's a bigger mistake folding the best hand in a huge pot (in this case a 9.25bb pot, you raise making it at least 11.25 he 3 bets assuming no callers 12bb) or calling 2bb in a large pot and your call invokes more callers a lot of times... thus pot probably gets larger when you call then when you raise... hmm least risk bigger pot... how is raising correct here?

if another club comes on the river you can easily safely lay down your hand because even with your raise on the turn IT DOESN'T PROTECT YOUR HAND!!! like i said before it's a situation we are either slightly ahead... or WAY behind to the FIELD, we might not be slightly ahead of one player or way behind to the same player but to all of them this fact holds true...

and with the stats below i think i have shown and my thoughts have proved that a raise and a fold are big mistakes... the line here is c/c, c/f if another club hits the river...

PokerStove Data:
MP1 is 40/6.7
MP2 69/5.6/1.3
Mp3 is 63/2.9/0.7
i wish i knew what CO's stats were but given he open raised LP i'm gonna go with 20/16 to be safe...

Code:

   6,037,316  games   229.188 secs    26,342  games/sec

Board: 8c 5c 5h Kc
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	41.476%  	38.30% 	03.18% 	       2312145 	   191950.67   { AhKh }
Hand 1: 	16.459%  	14.96% 	01.50% 	        903172 	    90551.00   { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 	14.111%  	13.32% 	00.79% 	        804033 	    47915.50   { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 	13.594%  	13.03% 	00.56% 	        786853 	    33874.67   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 4: 	14.359%  	13.73% 	00.63% 	        828971 	    37932.17   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }

as you can see sure we are ahead of any ONE player but 60% of the time we 're behind and drawing to the field, and given that the pot is so large no one is going to fold any sort of draw...

just for shits and giggles this is what your numbers looked like on the flop...

Code:

6,066,325  games   221.813 secs    27,348  games/sec

Board: 8c 5c 5h
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	19.493%  	17.46% 	02.03% 	       1059394 	   123143.92   { AhKh }
Hand 1: 	22.032%  	20.72% 	01.31% 	       1256851 	    79681.25   { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 	19.333%  	18.18% 	01.16% 	       1102653 	    70166.42   { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 	19.342%  	18.43% 	00.92% 	       1117844 	    55543.92   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 4: 	19.800%  	18.84% 	00.96% 	       1142777 	    58375.50   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }

arborman

11-20-2007, 06:29 PM

#15 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 300

Calling gives you a chance to either improve on the river or get out if another club falls. It also protects you from unprofitable 3bets, because with 4 outs you would still have the odds to call that 3bet - and probably lose if you are unimproved on the river or a club falls. The pot is big enough that nobody with any kind of draw is folding but anyone who is ahead will 3bet or even cap you and make it hurt.

Painful, whereas a call will protect your chips while also keeping you in the hand. This seems to be one of those 'way ahead/way behind' situations where calling down is the rule, unless you hit another king or a five.

DrivingDog

11-20-2007, 07:34 PM

#16 (permalink)

Full House

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Location: UK

Posts: 923

Responses to each point at the bottom.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

1. lol please explain how this is true:

Quote:

There's not much chance of someone having two clubs

2. also you flop a set 1 in 9 times about so explain how this is also true...

Quote:

even less chance of 88

3. Also i agree that you are right in part of this statement but only with 55

Quote:

nd things like K8, K5, 85, and 55 are very unlikely.

Quote:

I would be amazed to see someone having KK here given the action and the fact that we have a K in our hand and there is one on the board.

4. it's still a possibility, you have never seen the case card hit before? might not be highly likely and probably as likely as the 55 being out there...

Quote:

We are ahead often enough to make raise/fold correct imo.

5... tell me what's a bigger mistake folding the best hand in a huge pot (in this case a 9.25bb pot, you raise making it at least 11.25 he 3 bets assuming no callers 12bb) or calling 2bb in a large pot and your call invokes more callers a lot of times... thus pot probably gets larger when you call then when you raise... hmm least risk bigger pot... how is raising correct here?

6. if another club comes on the river you can easily safely lay down your hand because even with your raise on the turn IT DOESN'T PROTECT YOUR HAND!!!

and with the stats below i think i have shown and my thoughts have proved that a raise and a fold are big mistakes... the line here is c/c, c/f if another club hits the river...

PokerStove Data:
MP1 is 40/6.7
MP2 69/5.6/1.3
Mp3 is 63/2.9/0.7
i wish i knew what CO's stats were but given he open raised LP i'm gonna go with 20/16 to be safe...

Code:

   6,037,316  games   229.188 secs    26,342  games/sec

Board: 8c 5c 5h Kc
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	41.476%  	38.30% 	03.18% 	       2312145 	   191950.67   { AhKh }
Hand 1: 	16.459%  	14.96% 	01.50% 	        903172 	    90551.00   { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 	14.111%  	13.32% 	00.79% 	        804033 	    47915.50   { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 	13.594%  	13.03% 	00.56% 	        786853 	    33874.67   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 4: 	14.359%  	13.73% 	00.63% 	        828971 	    37932.17   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }

7. as you can see sure we are ahead of any ONE player but 60% of the time we 're behind and drawing to the field, and given that the pot is so large no one is going to fold any sort of draw...

just for shits and giggles this is what your numbers looked like on the flop...

Code:

6,066,325  games   221.813 secs    27,348  games/sec

Board: 8c 5c 5h
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	19.493%  	17.46% 	02.03% 	       1059394 	   123143.92   { AhKh }
Hand 1: 	22.032%  	20.72% 	01.31% 	       1256851 	    79681.25   { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 	19.333%  	18.18% 	01.16% 	       1102653 	    70166.42   { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 	19.342%  	18.43% 	00.92% 	       1117844 	    55543.92   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 4: 	19.800%  	18.84% 	00.96% 	       1142777 	    58375.50   { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }

1. Chance of any two cards both being suited is 1/4. Assume people are more likely to play suited cards make it 1/3. Three clubs on the board means any given opponent holding two suited cards is less likely to have clubs – given they have two suited cards, it’s about 1/5 they will be clubs. 1/3 (suited cards) * 1/5 (their suited cards are clubs) = 1/15. With four opponents you can make that 4* 1/15 = 4/15 that one of them has clubs, or about 27%.

2. There’s 1326 possible starting hands using two cards in a 52 card deck. Someone who plays 30% of their hands outside of the blinds will play about 400 of those. 3 of those possible starting hands make a set of 8s on the flop: 8d8s, 8d8h, 8h8s. 3/400 = <1%.

3. Well maybe the people in these games limp K8, K5, 85 (16 possible hands), but if they do then presumably they also limp hands like KJ, KT, K9, K7, K6, 87, 98, T8, J8, Q8, A8, 86, 76 (124 hands). So 16/140 of these hands are beating us, that makes 11%.

4. One way to have 55 and one way to have KK out of all the possible starting hands is also <1% .

5. I don't see too many passive players bluff 3bet boards like this. It's a close call as to whether it gets bigger when you call down vs. raise the turn.

6. This is a raise for value because there’s a good chance you have the best hand, it's not a raise to protect your hand. You can still fold on the river if a club comes, but that will only happen about 1/5 times.

7. The problem with this analysis is it doesn’t tell you who is winning on the turn. If you sum the numbers for 1-4 above you'll see that we are behind to one or more opponents about 40% of the time on the turn, meaning we are ahead of everyone 60% of the time. The 1/5 chance of a club coming on the river is what drops our equity to 40%.

It's certainly not horribly wrong to take the conservative route here, but with such passive opponents i prefer the raise/fold on the turn.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Hermann the Lombard

11-20-2007, 11:45 PM

#17 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

Whew! I swear I didn't know it was loaded when I picked up my hand! Thanks for the advice. This general situation comes up fairly often. I think I'll take that call, c/c line.

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

arborman

11-21-2007, 01:02 AM

#18 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 300

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hermann the Lombard

Whew! I swear I didn't know it was loaded when I picked up my hand! Thanks for the advice. This general situation comes up fairly often. I think I'll take that call, c/c line.

The meta question - and I ask it of myself sometimes - is "what were you hoping for on that turn?". Since you got what you wanted, folding seems a bit silly at this point. Since it isn't exactly what you wanted it is a call rather than a raise.

On the button with AKs and a potentially scary flop I often (not always) bet if it is checked to me, regardless of whether I actually hit. That lets me find out three things:

1. If someone hit hard and checkraises, I'd rather he do it on the flop and save me the big bet on the turn.

2. If anyone has a draw (they will almost always call).

3. If nobody else hit the flop. I win a fair number of small pots on the flop, when the flop looks exactly like this - especially if I 3bet preflop and nobody capped (few people cap without AA or KK).

On the button, betting a missed flop gives you a chance at a free card on the turn as well. It also gives you more information when somebody does bet into that 3flush board on the turn - it means they aren't afraid of you raising them.

DrivingDog

11-21-2007, 09:08 AM

#19 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Flushophobia= lost profits.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Hermann the Lombard

11-21-2007, 08:19 PM

#20 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

Flushophobia=The toilet is backed up.

:P

I often bet when I the flop misses my AK, and not just on the button. Depending on the villains (how many and my reads) I may do so OOP as a semi-bluff and I find that in these cases I win without a showdown more often than not. I get in more trouble when I hit the flop but don't hit hard enough.

Just yesterday I was looking at my recent AK hands. There were 74 (obviously a tiny sample). I won four preflop, hit 24 times and missed 46 times. I won 19 of 24 hits with all of the losses (and 14 wins) coming at showdown. I won 12 of the 46 misses, mostly folding on the flop (14) or turn (13). None of this means I'm playing well. I'm breaking even on the AKs hands and am marginally profitable (about 1 BB/100) with AKo. So it seems I'm not getting enough value out of my good AK and I'm putting too many bets behind the bad AK hands.

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

pokerfanatic

11-23-2007, 04:24 PM

#21 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: 6max limit tables

Posts: 1,968

DrivingDog,

raising this turn card is gonna add to your variance a ton, as i showed with my numbers where you stand in the field of players is either slightly ahead but more likely WAY behind... the pot is large enough already to draw at a 4 outer, which is what you probably have, i just see no reason to wait to raise and possibly have it 3bet oe capped on you...

i'd have to say that you line might win you a few extra bets when you do hit but it's gonna lose you more bets long run (don't know exact EV numbers) but i'd venture to guess it's a a break even EV spot to a -EV...

DrivingDog

11-23-2007, 05:22 PM

#22 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

ok.. I think it is pretty close either way.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

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AK catches turn King

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