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AJ TPTK faces bet on blank river

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Pelion

04-18-2006, 07:28 PM Post subject: AJ TPTK faces bet on blank river

#1 (permalink)

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Call or raise this river?

PokerStars 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, J

.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) J

, 8

, 3

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) T

(3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 2

(3 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero . . .

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

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pokerfanatic

04-18-2006, 07:35 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Umm interesting... 0.02/0.04 I wouldn't be surprised to see him show two pair with a 2 in his hand, maybe 79 god only knows but either way i don't think he bluff donks into 2 players here your TPTK no good IMO... but you are getting 10.5:1 on your call so I guess you could make that call...

I’m not a fan of making a raise here because it’s not likely he bluffs with the donk bet on the river… Your options are call or fold given this is 0.02/0.04 IMO...

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thenonsequitur

04-18-2006, 07:57 PM Post subject: Re: AJ TPTK faces bet on blank river

#3 (permalink)

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With so many people in the pot his chances of donking the river with a hand weaker than yours are low, and I'm not sure how the microlimits affect it, but they probably also decrease his chances of going agro without two pair or better. But the pot is big enough to make a crying call.

If this hand were heads-up through the whole hand and not microlimits, a raise would be more reasonable because then villian might be playing a WA/WB line.

spoonitnow

04-18-2006, 09:17 PM

#4 (permalink)

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I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

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Xanadu

04-18-2006, 10:05 PM

#5 (permalink)

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From my experience at the low limits, this is an easy call with no read. Enough weaker Jacks will check call and wait to bet til the river out of fear of the flush draw and overcards. You will also catch a few % of bluffs. With a caller in between, raising is a bad idea.

pokerfanatic

04-18-2006, 11:20 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

just because you have the odds to make a play doesn't make it the right one all the time...

spoonitnow

04-18-2006, 11:49 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

just because you have the odds to make a play doesn't make it the right one all the time...

Of course. To clarify, the fact that villian is a 0.02/0.04 player is what leans me SLIGHTLY towards calling here.

Edit: When I mean it makes me lean towards calling, I mean in the decision between calling or folding, again just to clarify.

elipsesjeff

04-19-2006, 01:37 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

just because you have the odds to make a play doesn't make it the right one all the time...

You know, I could have fun trying to make you explain yourself but I think you said something else than what you meant.

When would it ever be the wrong play when we have correct odds?

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spoonitnow

04-19-2006, 02:26 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

just because you have the odds to make a play doesn't make it the right one all the time...

You know, I could have fun trying to make you explain yourself but I think you said something else than what you meant.

When would it ever be the wrong play when we have correct odds?

I was under the impression that the correct odds in situations like this are hard to really put a finger on, and that it becomes more of a judgement call based on what you know about the players. I may have a misconception.

In this particular situation, I'm having a hard time seeing even a semi-clear cut call or fold decision given the pot odds. Now, had the pot odds been like 1 to 25, the decision would be easier for me.

I'm leaning more towards fold everytime I come back to this thread. I just can't see beating two other hands here except on very rare occasion, perhaps more rare than our pot odds allow us, even if it is 0.02/0.04

pokerfanatic

04-19-2006, 04:40 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

just because you have the odds to make a play doesn't make it the right one all the time...

You know, I could have fun trying to make you explain yourself but I think you said something else than what you meant.

When would it ever be the wrong play when we have correct odds?

haha yea you know me too well...

euphoricism

04-19-2006, 05:03 AM

#11 (permalink)

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This is an easy thread:

You can fold this river approximately never.
You can often raise this river, but not at .02/.04.

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euphoricism

04-19-2006, 05:13 AM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

What?

On pot odds alone: the pot is 10.5BB. It costs you 1 more. Unless you think you lose this over 90% of the time, you can (err.. HAVE TO) call.

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outphase

04-19-2006, 05:29 AM

#13 (permalink)

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the only catalyst in this hand is that you'd be making an overcall... anything else, i suck it up and call

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

spoonitnow

04-19-2006, 09:09 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

What?

On pot odds alone: the pot is 10.5BB. It costs you 1 more. Unless you think you lose this over 90% of the time, you can (err.. HAVE TO) call.

I don't think that's very unreasonable against two opponents on this board with the betting.

pokerfanatic

04-19-2006, 09:54 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

What?

On pot odds alone: the pot is 10.5BB. It costs you 1 more. Unless you think you lose this over 90% of the time, you can (err.. HAVE TO) call.

i once heard Erick Lindgren say in a “the circuit” interview which you can find here: http://www.cardplayer.com/audio/thec....php?page_form[t_id]=&pageID=2&PHPSESSID=3ba93c893d9f3fe14a699e90c1d88 98c it's the first clip (you might have to open that link with IE)

Anyways he says towards the end (46:08) "The top players win a lot in limit Hold’em... They have no problems... they are very good at throwing away hands... lots of time on the river card in limit Hold’em... the guy bets alright, let's just say 1000/2000 ok? so the guy can only bet 2000... well there has been betting and raising to that point and there is 24000 in the pot... I'm not a math major but that's 12:1... it's very hard to lay that down but the it's just impossible the guy is bluffing..."

Note: obviously a great read on your opponents....

I’m not saying that you should always call or always fold but it's something to think about this game is more then math...

it’s a game of math in the long run but it is also a game of people in the short run… if a play that is say not the most mathematically correct play in the long run however is the way that you can win the most profit given your opponents I’ll take the one that increases profit... you can’t sit there and say that you ALWAYS play the hand the same way because that’s just not true.

At 0.02/0.04 you can make this call and probably break even, it’s ABC poker… but you move the stakes to say 10/20 and you have a read the player wont run that line without having you totally bet I don’t see why a fold isn’t ok…

You can debate this all you’d like… it’s only about maybe adding 0.2-0.5bb/100 to your win rate… it could however easily back fire on you and end up going -0.5-1bb/100 off your win rate if you are not good at reading people… it’s a really marginal high level of thinking type play so really you should probably disregard this notion unless you are 95% or more sure your read is accurate…

that's sort of what i was getting at earlier but worded it badly...

Pelion

04-19-2006, 10:29 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

if a play that is say not the most mathematically correct play in the long run however is the way that you can win the most profit given your opponents I’ll take the one that increases profit...

The only reason they are different is because you are assuming the mathematical long term case is against a range of opponents whereas the short term case is against a specific opponents with specific tendancies.

The mathematically correct play is the one that maximises expectation. You have to take player characteristics into account here. If you have a player who is a calling station then you assign 0% to your fold equity when trying to work out the correct play.

The mathematically correct play is the same as the play that maximises short term expectation. (It may not maximise short term profit as you may get outdrawn).

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

pokerfanatic

04-19-2006, 10:34 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

if a play that is say not the most mathematically correct play in the long run however is the way that you can win the most profit given your opponents I’ll take the one that increases profit...

ummm yea... your not telling me anything i don't already know... but maybe it will help other though...

edit: sorry i sound like an ass, that's not really how it was spoz to come off...

Pelion

04-19-2006, 10:39 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

if a play that is say not the most mathematically correct play in the long run however is the way that you can win the most profit given your opponents I’ll take the one that increases profit...

ummm yea... your not telling me anything i don't already know... but maybe it will help other though...

edit: sorry i sound like an ass, that's not really how it was spoz to come off...

yea i figured you probably got it. There was a post a little while ago in the NL forums about what to do when the long term correct play is different to the short term correct play... I just wondered if there were any others who thought that was possible.

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

pokerfanatic

04-19-2006, 10:47 PM

#19 (permalink)

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well, my style of play has a stats background no doubt but since i play 6max all the time now my main focus is reads and switching gears and shit like that given a situation and the current table play... there was a post about shifting towards a 30/20 in the SH topic that has a lot to do with my thinking of playing the other players and my current table image to increase win rates...

ABC poker will net you probably around 1bb/100 from 2/4 to I’d say 0.5/1 and even some good games at 0.5/1 are this way you can make 1.5-2.5bb/100 playing ABC downward... as you move up more technical ideas such as the one i describe become more an issue but playing 0.02/0.04 I nut camp lol...

euphoricism

04-19-2006, 10:55 PM

#20 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

What?

On pot odds alone: the pot is 10.5BB. It costs you 1 more. Unless you think you lose this over 90% of the time, you can (err.. HAVE TO) call.

I don't think that's very unreasonable against two opponents on this board with the betting.

lol. Well, I can't help ya there. The overcall means just about dick at .02/.04.

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spoonitnow

04-19-2006, 10:58 PM

#21 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I call there because of the pot odds offered, though it's a close decision for me because I'm not even sure if those odds offered actually quite cover it.

What?

On pot odds alone: the pot is 10.5BB. It costs you 1 more. Unless you think you lose this over 90% of the time, you can (err.. HAVE TO) call.

I don't think that's very unreasonable against two opponents on this board with the betting.

lol. Well, I can't help ya there. The overcall means just about dick at .02/.04.

I call easy there, was seeing what kind of response I'd get :P

Fnord

04-20-2006, 08:20 AM

#22 (permalink)

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Live Poker != Online Poker

No fucking way you fold. I'm either raising or calling depending on what I think of the donk who led the river.

In my experience, you're good here a lot and with another guy in the pot I would quite often bump it up one time.

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euphoricism

04-20-2006, 12:28 PM

#23 (permalink)

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Quote:

At 0.02/0.04 you can make this call and probably break even, it’s ABC poker… but you move the stakes to say 10/20 and you have a read the player wont run that line without having you totally bet I don’t see why a fold isn’t ok…

At 10/20 I'm raising here a LOT.

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spoonitnow

04-20-2006, 09:28 PM

#24 (permalink)

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Dude. Holy shit.

The whole time I've thought it was the 2c on the river.

I'm such a fish.

Ragnar4

04-21-2006, 10:30 PM

#25 (permalink)

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I'd like to toss in that Mason and Malmuth in SSH both suggest that while it's significant to lose 1bb, paying off to a someone else winning, it's absolutely devastating to lose a large pot because you laid a winner down. I'd rather be a little pissed than a lot pissed in this situation.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

spoonitnow

04-22-2006, 09:22 PM

#26 (permalink)

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So what's your BR these days?

Ragnar4

04-22-2006, 09:43 PM

#27 (permalink)

Full House

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My bankroll? I play pretty comfortably with 600 bucks in a 3/6 limit game. Ever since I started reading (and re-reading) SSH. When I do well, I win very big When I do ok, I win a little. When I have a bad night, I quit 20 down.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

littleogre

04-26-2006, 09:07 AM

#28 (permalink)

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past

Call the bet you are likely behind but the pot is big enough to make a crying call. Also an asstute player will take notice of the fact that you fold on the river for 1 big bet in a large pot. I personally don't like raising as a penny player isn't gona a bluff often enough to make a raise +ev imo.

Also if you don't plan on posting the results of the hand here could you please pm them to me? I'm guessing you lost when the other guy donk striked 2 pair on the river. Just curious to find out if i'm right

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