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Aces hold up (no content)

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Xanadu

01-24-2006, 02:41 AM Post subject: Aces hold up (no content)

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

We've all heard players bitch and moan about their pocket aces never holding up. I was just looking through poker tracker and noticed that I have won the last 20 hands with AA. 20!

That's really not too crazy. Against random hands, assuming 10 hands heads up and 10 hands 3-way, it's about 1% that Aces hold up 20 times in a row. I would have thought it was much less likely. I wouldn't be surprised if someone with several 100k hands has a streak in the 30s.

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ihategnomes

01-24-2006, 04:21 AM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Louisiana

Posts: 1,225

It goes the other way too, with my last 33 AA hands, I have netted 2.5BB total! But I have had runs off 30 hold up before too.

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

Shark Bait

01-24-2006, 05:18 AM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 481

The last time I got pocket aces I hit a set and lost 5.5 BB. before that it was 12 wins in a row.

<a500lbgorilla> Limit is poker with training wheels!

Pelion

01-24-2006, 10:45 AM Post subject: Re: Aces hold up (no content)

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 3,206

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xanadu

Against random hands, assuming 10 hands heads up and 10 hands 3-way, it's about 1% that Aces hold up 20 times in a row.

You arent against random hands heads up, or random hands three way. You are against random hands 10 (or 9 or 6 depending on what you play) handed and only the best of those are calling you preflop. I think you have to work out the chance you are ahead against 10 hands and then add a bit more because most of the hands that will suckout actually fold preflop.

Thats probably quite a bit less than 1%. Congrats for beating the percentages

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

01-24-2006, 04:58 PM

#5 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

note that any hand against aces does as well as a random hand... at most 20% chance to suck out

Xanadu

01-25-2006, 01:47 AM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

Yes, a random hand is as good a measure as any against Aces ... KQ and 23 both fare the same except for 5 flush boards. And the 2.5 average is fairly accurate playing 5 handed.

BumpTing

01-25-2006, 01:34 PM

#7 (permalink)

Join Date: Nov 2005

Location: Garner NC

Posts: 39

Last time I hit AA, I hit quads, but when I made a move got caved on. not much net.

#Game No : 3421903714
***** Hand History for Game 3421903714 *****
$0.25/$0.50 Texas Hold'em - Monday, January 23, 07:46:08 EDT 2006
Table Beginners #1108059 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: dougmumford ( $7 )
Seat 2: CiviCsi9900 ( $18.60 )
Seat 3: Mr_Flopy ( $11.05 )
Seat 4: payday2006 ( $12.25 )
Seat 5: TWOSIS2ELS ( $5.25 )
Seat 6: drizzler69 ( $14.48 )
Seat 7: harleybish ( $11.87 )
Seat 9: willseyAAA ( $31.54 )
Seat 8: BumpTing ( $12.25 )
Seat 10: Motzi0910 ( $12 )
Mr_Flopy posts small blind [$0.10].
payday2006 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BumpTing [ As Ah ]
TWOSIS2ELS folds.
drizzler69 calls [$0.25].
harleybish folds.
BumpTing raises [$0.50].
willseyAAA calls [$0.50].
Motzi0910 folds.
dougmumford folds.
CiviCsi9900 calls [$0.50].
Mr_Flopy folds.
payday2006 folds.
drizzler69 calls [$0.25].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ad, 7s, 7h ]
drizzler69 checks.
>You have options at Beginners #1111861 Table!.
>You have options at Beginners #1112855 Table!.
BumpTing checks.
willseyAAA checks.
CiviCsi9900 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ac ]
drizzler69 bets [$0.50].
BumpTing raises [$1].
willseyAAA folds.
CiviCsi9900 folds.
drizzler69 folds.
BumpTing does not show cards.
BumpTing wins $3.70
Game #3421905578 starts.

Nobody is always a winner, and anybody who says he is, is either a liar or doesn't play poker
"Amarillo Slim"

Xanadu

01-25-2006, 01:47 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

I think your turn raise was a big mistake. You slow-played, and got a bet out of your opponent, then raised, announcing a slow played ace and everyone folded. Smooth call with 2 behind you and the river to come. If the other 2 call, and this guy bets the river again, probably just call again going for overcalls.

Xanadu

01-26-2006, 01:36 AM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

Funny, I lost with my first AA after posting this thread.

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Aces hold up (no content)

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