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elipsesjeff

06-14-2006, 03:57 AM Post subject: Ace high on river

#1 (permalink)

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What percentage am I good here?

Villain is 40/10/1.5, thinking postflop player, not too much time at the table. This is my last hand on the table as my fish got up and left.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T

, A

.
Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5

, Q

, 8

(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J

(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, BB raises, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 2

(2 players)
BB bets, Hero ?....

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6high

06-14-2006, 10:45 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Even with the double gutter, I would not bet that turn.

You're never good on the river.

elipsesjeff

06-14-2006, 03:57 PM

#3 (permalink)

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I'm gonna let others respond before I reveal too much, but being the preflop and flop aggressor, in this game, you've got to follow through with a turn bet also or you'll give up way too many pots. There are so many players that will just 'peel one' then fold the turn with any two. If it was only a gutshot, then probably I would check through but the double gutter I've got enough folding equity to go with it, along with the one overcard, that betting it is nearly always correct.

And, against players that will routinely check/raise flush draws on turn instead of the flop, you'd be surprised at how good Ace high is on the river, especially in a game where players play too many hands, too aggressive with those hands, and then try to bluff way too many times.

Example:

Villain is 33/11

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, 7

.
2 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 3

, 9

, 5

(3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4

(3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB folds.

River: (6.50 BB) 5

(2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Results in white below:
BB has Qs 8d (one pair, fives).
Hero has Ac 7s (one pair, fives).
Outcome: Hero wins 8.50 BB.

I probably could have raised the turn (and do sometimes but not always) and then check/behind the river but this guy's line into a preflop raiser usually means he has jack shit. Its actually a standard live blind defense line instead of checkraising like we see online and usually If I've gone to the river with my ace and the pot is giving me like 7-1 or higher I'll see the showdown. Probably why I'm seeing like 42-44% showdown this month already.

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elipsesjeff

06-14-2006, 04:00 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Heres an example of where guys peel with any 2 on the flop:

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4

, A

.
4 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 3

, T

, 7

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 5

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) J

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6 BB

Results in white below:
SB has 6c Kh (high card, king).
Hero has 4d Ah (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins 6 BB.

Not betting the turn is a mistake, but its an easy bet/fold in most cases (not this one again with the double gutter). I went through a period a couple months ago where I stopped c/betting the turn, and my winrate dropped dramatically.

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Xanadu

06-14-2006, 04:23 PM

#5 (permalink)

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I've started taking this bet/bet/check line with position heads up with A-high hands and sometimes KQ, KJ against the players who will call to the river with any 2, and will fold the river with no pair but will call with any pair. The flop and turn bets are very high +EV because the chances are they missed the flop and don't have a pp. Firing again on the river (which I used to do) is -EV because they almost always fold when beaten and call with a better hand.

pokerfanatic

06-14-2006, 04:36 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 6high

Even with the double gutter, I would not bet that turn.

You're never good on the river.

you must have never played 10/20...

nothing aganst you but that comment sounds like someone would say that has never seen the BS lines that players pull at this level 10/20 i mean.

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6high

06-14-2006, 05:13 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 136

It's one thing to say that you see BS lines at 10/20. It's another to say that Villian peels this flop w/ retarded shit and then checkraises the turn after the UTG PFR has just bet into 2 players on both the flop AND the turn on a QJxx board AND expects to get a fold out of it.

If Hero called this river, he's got information that he hasn't given us.

chardrian

06-14-2006, 06:06 PM

#8 (permalink)

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No - I think he has given us all the information we need:
"Villain is 40/10/1.5, thinking postflop player."

A thinking player will raise that turn on a semi-bluff with a draw or occassionally even with air (especially versus another thinking player.

After you make a bluff on the turn out of position, you can't really just give up when you are called or u are just dumping chips. So our villain needs to be bluffing about 10% of the time (the hero needs to call 1 BB to win almost 10BB by the river) for our Hero to make this a +EV call.

As long as you don't let the 90% of the time you are wrong put you tilt (one of my probs) than making this call is fine.

6high

06-15-2006, 10:36 AM

#9 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

"Villain is 40/10/1.5, thinking postflop player."

A thinking player will raise that turn on a semi-bluff with a draw or occassionally even with air (especially versus another thinking player.

A thinking player would not semibluff this turn.

euphoricism

06-15-2006, 11:25 AM

#10 (permalink)

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I do bet the turn -- absolutely. Double gutshot, maybe an overcard, and some folding equity. Fire away. But I fold the river. Yeah, Ace high might be good here once in a while. But Ace high, facing a checkraise from the BB on a QJxxx board. Yeaaah. I'll take a fold.

If your opponent suddenly thinks he can start checkraising the turn on a bluff, he'll more than pay you off harder when you hit, so that is fine with me.

If I held top pair, this would be an easy call, and villain would be paying dearly. Frankly, I can find a better spot to invest my money.

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elipsesjeff

06-15-2006, 01:18 PM

#11 (permalink)

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[quote="6high"]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

"Villain is 40/10/1.5, thinking postflop player."

A thinking player will raise that turn on a semi-bluff with a draw or occassionally even with air (especially versus another thinking player.

A thinking player would not semibluff this turn.[/quote

I never said how much he thinks or good of a thinker he is, but check/raising the turn is getting to become more standard these days. And, check/raising this turn on a flush draw isnt bad always and has it spots. Usually against tight thinking players like me is a good place for it.

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chardrian

06-15-2006, 04:08 PM

#12 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 6high

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

"Villain is 40/10/1.5, thinking postflop player."

A thinking player will raise that turn on a semi-bluff with a draw or occassionally even with air (especially versus another thinking player.

A thinking player would not semibluff this turn.

Why not?

pokerfanatic

06-15-2006, 04:45 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Not to sound like an ass but let me elaborate a little on my comment...

I guess my chose of wording saying "BS lines" wasn't clear... what I meant is at this level you see lines that a "thinking player" wouldn't make at say 1/2 or something, but 3/6 I see semi-bluffing turn a little 5/10 you see it more and as Jeff said the c/r on the turn as a semi-bluff or pure bluff at 10/20 is not all that uncommon...

what i was hinting at is it sounds as if you are projecting what a typical 40/10 would do at small stakes, onto a high stakes platform, and that is nothing but a recipe for disaster and misreading opponents...

10/20 is one of those levels that I like to call "fancy play syndrome" 5/10 has this a little but I see it a ton at the 10/20 level... you get players like a 40/10, 50/10 something like that that will typically check and call at small stakes, but at these levels are the first levels where these players try and get what I call "cute" with you...

Players will regularly bet and raise, it's like they finally realize that checking and calling the hole way is not the best play, and they know that more player can fold on the turn or flop then at small stakes so they run crazy ass bluff lines, lines that make no since at all...

For example I was playing 10/20 FR ohh about half a month ago... I got capped on the flop by a guy on bottom ass pair and a back door straight draw... stick part is he got the runner runner for the straight... that's just something you don't see at small stakes very often instead they call down and then when they river you some wont even raise the fucking nuts...

We split the boards at 5/10 and 10/20 because of this, the games are just played differently... and I see players trying to bluff you a lot more often in a 10/20 game... So this is why I thought that you hadn’t been around a 10/20 game much if any, nothing against you it just sounded like you were thinking Small Stakes poker…

6high

06-15-2006, 05:50 PM

#14 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

Quote:

Originally Posted by 6high

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

"Villain is 40/10/1.5, thinking postflop player."

A thinking player will raise that turn on a semi-bluff with a draw or occassionally even with air (especially versus another thinking player.

A thinking player would not semibluff this turn.

Why not?

What is Hero's hand range here?
What % of it is folding on this turn?

chardrian

06-15-2006, 06:01 PM

#15 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

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Posts: 4,524

Meh - I told you my rationale already.

A thinking player versus another thinking player in the 10/20 games I have played can easily make a play on the turn here - in fact that is where most thinking players do make their moves vs other thinking players because they know that good players can actually fold to a turn raise, whereas they are unlikely to get a fold by checkraising the flop.

So villain could easily have 9x here, Tx, a flush draw, AK, or nuttin.

I have no idea what you mean by what % of it is folding on this turn? Villain either has our hero beat or he doesn't. Hero cannot fold that turn. So the real question is can/should he fold that river. I think a call is fine because I think the villain could be bluffing enough times there that the call is worth it in the long run.

You have not provided any real response other than just over-simplified generalities which does nothing to help me think of how to play this hand.

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6high

06-15-2006, 06:19 PM

#16 (permalink)

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If the jeff had said anything other than "thinking postflop player", I probably wouldn't have even responded in the thread.
Yes, there are plenty of morons who try to spring shit like this in the 10 game all the time.

But this just isn't a profitable semibluff spot for villian at all.
A thinking villian would know that Hero never holds a hand that will fold the turn, given his action. So, he then knows, that in order to get Hero to fold a better hand, he needs to invest 3BB turn/river. The pot is small on the turn and a 3BB investment to win a 9BB pot is not a prospect a "thinking player" would undertake when taking into consideration Hero's range, the board and preceding action.

This is a dumb spot for a semibluff from villian. When a "thinking player" checkraises the turn here, it's for value.

Maybe the only difference in thought here, is our definition of a "thinking player".

chardrian

06-15-2006, 06:37 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Yeah - fair nuff.

I actually don't think it is that dumb of a spot though.

Hero's range UTG could be AT+; JQs+; 22+.

In that range, hero's betting pattern fits and the villain could conceivably knock him off of hands like 22-44; 66-TT; AJ, AK, and JK on the turn. Are there lots of hands that villain is crucifying himself with on a bad bluff? - sure, but there are lots of hands that he can push off as well and against a tight opp I see this line, heads-up often enough that you can't AUTOMATICALLY give the villain credit for a made hand (usually he has one - but not always).

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elipsesjeff

06-15-2006, 07:14 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 6high

This is the only reason why I did fold in this hand. I saw his stats, I saw the board and I couldn't really put myself at being ahead here more than 12 % of the time for my call to be correct given the board. If I had AK there is a higher probability for me to be ahead, but me getting to this river with AK given his line is also a small problem.

In more easier situations, say if I were getting like 12 or 14-1 I make this call moreso than getting 8 or 9-1. I just wanted to make sure my thought process was pretty similar to what you guys said, but you have to remember there is always a chance with Ace high that we are ahead. I literally took the time bank almost to zero to make this decision, and I am glad I did regardless of the result. This was my last hand at the table and night for that matter but villain showed

, for a busted flush and gutshot draw (as well as pair if he hit) which IMO was more than enough to try for a checkraise on the turn. My comparisons of pot size to equity has grown to be pretty good and I am still positive I'm not good here 12 % of the time as 6high has said.

Thanks for the responses.

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chardrian

06-15-2006, 08:42 PM

#19 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

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Dammit - I hate it when I am wrong.

I put villain on

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euphoricism

06-15-2006, 08:51 PM

#20 (permalink)

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I was thinking he was a charetard with 22.

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6high

06-16-2006, 03:40 AM

#21 (permalink)

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Although unprofitable, I did think of the posssibility of both 9

and 9

.
Both now double gutted flush draws.

But they still don't make up 10% of his hands.

elipsesjeff

06-16-2006, 04:48 AM

#22 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 6high

Although unprofitable, I did think of the posssibility of both 9

and 9

.
Both now double gutted flush draws.

But they still don't make up 10% of his hands.

Check raising OESFD on the turn is definately +EV.

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jmontis

06-17-2006, 02:19 AM

#23 (permalink)

Full House

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all relative to the villians play style. Against the right opp, i'll call or even raise him with ace high, but other players I'll fold to a flop bet.

I am beginning to believe being able to spot these bluffs from agro players is what seperates the winners in low to middle limit games. Barry Greenstein recommends check raising your draws on the turn into players like this.

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

6high

06-19-2006, 10:05 PM

#24 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2005

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Quote:

Originally Posted by 6high

Although unprofitable, I did think of the posssibility of both 9

and 9

.
Both now double gutted flush draws.

But they still don't make up 10% of his hands.

Check raising OESFD on the turn is definately +EV.

I'll happily admit when I'm proven wrong but the only way to do that is to prove it.
In order to do so, can you give us a hand range here for yourself Jeff, given your play up until now.
Then tell us which hands you fold, call down and 3bet here.
Then we can calculate whether it's +EV.

My reasoning:
With an OESFD villian will have 32% equity on the turn.

This means that a c/r has to be successful 18% of the time to be immediately profitable.
I think this is overly optomistic, especially when you take into account, that this also assumes that you will never get 3bet.

elipsesjeff

06-19-2006, 10:49 PM

#25 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Koolmoe

As a result, you only need a fold about 9% of the time. It doesn't have to work very often to be profitable.

From: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ight=max+bluff

A thread that I made a year ago, you're going to have to scroll down through a lot of bullshit and retarded hands I posted showing off the game but the last hand there that I posted incited some really good discussion.

The search feature works great.

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