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Nehmer
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06-15-2006, 05:56 PM
Post subject: AA vs obvious KK...
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Villain is a very standard Tag that I play with a lot...16/11/1.9 stats...Is there any way I can fold this turn? I am almost positive I know exactly what he has as soon as he raises the turn, but can't bring myself to fold it...should I?
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , A .
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 raises, 5 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, MP1 caps, Hero calls.
Flop: (9.33 SB) K , 5, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls.
Turn: (7.66 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls.
River: (11.66 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 13.66 BB
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6high
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 136
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AK = 6 combos
KK = 3 combos
AA = 1 combo
Even if you discount AK to only 1 or even .5 combo, you still have the odds to calldown.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 6high
AK = 6 combos
KK = 3 combos
Even if you discount AK to only 1 combo, you still have the odds to calldown.
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The number of combos for each hand doesn't really do us any good here though...It's more a matter of would he ever play AK like that? How aggressive does a player need to be to raise that turn into a tight player who 3-bet that flop after it was capped preflop? Essentially it comes down to if he is capable of raising the turn instead of capping the flop or just calling down with AK, then it is an easy calldown. How often do you see a Tag make this play with AK though? A maniac or a Lag, it's an easy calldown, but I think I might start making this fold vs the slightly more passive postflop Tags. He's essentially telling me exactly what he has and I'm failing to use the info.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Pots too fold for online read.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Pots too fold for online read.
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So the question is then, at what point can I trust my reads? Here is a situation where I have to put in 2 BB to win 11 BB and I feel like I know he has KK...It's not like I think he has KK, based on previous play with this guy, I feel I know what he has, but I call anyway and find out I was right. This happens to me over and over again where I go against a read because the pot is too big or my read can't possibly be that good online, but it seems like my read is almost always right.
Maybe I'm just thinking about it too much, but I feel like I'm ignoring my gut too often in situations similar to this lately, but really have no way of checking my stats to find out what percent of the time I would have been right.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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In the last 3 months I've only seen one flop capped w AK and that was by an obvious maniac, not the "very standard TAG" you describe. Anyone who knows what they're doing seems to cap pf against a thinking opponent (such as yourself) largely w AA and KK. Once the flop comes with a K I don't think it's too tight with your hand to just check call to the river, and if you do bet and get raised on the flop, why not just put the brakes on and call to the river (assuming you're not going to fold)? It's not good practice to try to squeeze every last dollar out of every hand, and it can't be done anyway. It might also help you trust your reads if you check call on the occasional hand similar to this--you'll get to see what your opponent had and thereby a sense of whether your reads are generally correct.
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sinky
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: SCOTLAND
Posts: 295
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
So the question is then, at what point can I trust my reads? Here is a situation where I have to put in 2 BB to win 11 BB and I feel like I know he has KK...It's not like I think he has KK, based on previous play with this guy, I feel I know what he has, but I call anyway and find out I was right. This happens to me over and over again where I go against a read because the pot is too big or my read can't possibly be that good online, but it seems like my read is almost always right.
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You have pretty much answered your own question. You have to put in 2 more BB to win 11.66 BB. So you have to have > 85% confidence that your read is correct. From everything you have said above it looks like you are about 99% certain he has KK.
Now if only I could listen to my own advice. Calling turn raises with top pair or an overpair against tight opponents is certainly my biggest leak.
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samcheeseman
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: London
Posts: 9
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I know exactly what you mean. If you feel you have a good read on someone, there's this urge inside of you to find out if you're right or not.
And if you are right, there's not much reward, because you just lost an extra $1.50 or whatever limit you play at... And if you fold to the read, there's a big chance you'll never find out what they actually had.
Curiosity killed the cat, I suppose. Takes a lot of discipline to just fold in that situation.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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Just remembered some good advice I read in a thread recently. It was to the effect of, if you want to work on your reads, spend hours watching some good, high stakes players play, and as each hand develops, work on figuring out what each player has. Seems like a great way to practice getting reads without the stress of losing.
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zilch
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 156
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Here's something that worked for me when I want to see how good my reads are.
Make a note of every read you make and a note of the actual cards if they are shown. You can then get a good idea of how good/bad your reads are and where they are failing. When I first did this it showed that my reads for hands that I were not invovled in were a lot better than those I was in. It took me a while to work through that, but I have got to a stage where I can usually trust my good reads.
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