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Nehmer
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09-16-2006, 05:30 PM
Post subject: AA turn fold...
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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UTG+1 is 15/9 and plays solid postflop over a big sample size. UTG is an idiot over a small sample size...Is my fold good or too tight? I felt like KK and QQ are the only hands that make sense for him to have here, just have a hard time believing it's AK or KQ.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , A .
UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 5 folds, Hero caps, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: (13.33 SB) Q, 2 , 2 (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.
Turn: (8.16 BB) K (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds, UTG calls.
River: (13.16 BB) 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG folds.
Final Pot: 14.16 BB
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Harry
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
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How can you know he doesn't have AQ, AK, KQ? I call down here.
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PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
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ripjohngotti
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,191
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Your AA would beat his qk.
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30%
Still looking for my royal flush.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
Your AA would beat his qk.
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I know, that's why I said that I can't imagine he has KQ here. Just seems like a Tag that 3-bets in early position and gets capped by another Tag and then check calls the flop and check raises the turn has to have a monster in this situation. Maybe I am being a bit tight though in situations like this though, which is why I wanted to hear what some others have to say about it.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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... i threebet ...
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
... i threebet ...
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So if you had AK in his situation, how would you play postflop assuming your read on me was a 15/11 Tag that plays fairly solid postflop and goes to showdown about 34% of the time? I am assuming this guy uses poker tracker, because I play vs him a lot and he does fairly well for himself. My capping range vs him preflop here is JJ-AA, AKs. He doesn't know that is exactly it, but I would guess he doesn't have me pegged too much off that. Would you seriously check raise me here with KQ or AK? Maybe I am giving people with similar preflop styles as mine too much credit for playing postflop similar to me, because I would definately not be check raising that turn with AK.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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i didn't know it was ever correct to fold AA in lhe.
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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back to the nl forums boy
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UTG+1 was 3-betting UTG, which you said wasn't a very good player
I mean, I would be surprised if he didn't 3 bet AK in his position
and you folded after you bet and got raised
so it's a huge pot, one bet to you, your hand isn't even dead if he has a set, but that's less likely than your average two pair/TPTK
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Suppose you are only ahead 10% of the time. Also assume that if you are ahead, you will still be ahead after the river to simplify things and that you will make 1 more bet on the river. When behind, you will win 1/22, but will make 4 more bets on the river for a total of 17 bets. When behind and you lose, you lose 1 more bet on the river calling down.
wins: 0.1*14 + .9*17/22 = +2.1
losses: .9*2 = -1.8
For a net gain of 0.3BB
So even if you are 90% sure you are beat, you still make money calling down. The combined effect of the huge pot and your chances of making Aces full on the river make this impossible to fold. Especially when you have a read that this is a solid, observant player that could have 3-bet with a looser than usual range preflop because UTG is a donk.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
So even if you are 90% sure you are beat, you still make money calling down. The combined effect of the huge pot and your chances of making Aces full on the river make this impossible to fold. Especially when you have a read that this is a solid, observant player that could have 3-bet with a looser than usual range preflop because UTG is a donk.
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I think this is my problem though. Yes, villain is an observant player who would have 3-bet preflop with AK or possibly KQs(both hands that I beat on the turn). However, it is the fact that he is a thinking player that makes me think he doesn't have either of these hands based on the flop/turn play. If he has AK, he is smart enough to realize that he doesn't have anything in my preflop capping range beat except JJ, which I would probably have checked through the turn with and definately wouldn't call his raise with. If he has KQ, I would probably expect a donk bet on the flop. The hand this by far mostly represents is QQ. Also, even though UTG is a bad player(over about 20 hands), I still think it makes the turn check-raise by UTG+1 represent a stronger hand, because it is a multiway pot.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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You still have to call. If your opponent is smart enough to know he's beat unless he has QQ or KK, because he knows you so well, then he is smart enough to notice that you will fold to a turn raise after being the aggressor the whole hand in a big pot. Now you just gave him another tool to beat you with. Perhaps he already knew you were capable of big laydowns and semi-bluffed AQs!!
I agree with your reasoning that a strong thinking player will mostly have QQ or KK here. But just how sure can you be?
Here is another thing. Would your opponent make the same plays with AA? If this sequence could only mean QQ,KK, or AA, it's pretty much a dead even play between calling and folding. So, if AA would be played the same, any chance at all that he has AK or AsQs makes a call profitable. If QQ+ would all be played this way, there is a 1/7 chance he has AA.
To me, this is a case where every assumption has to be taken unfavorably to turn it into a bad call. Since even in the worst possible scenarios it is only barely a fold, a fold cannot be correct.
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