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Anosmic

09-17-2006, 10:52 PM Post subject: AA multiway drawish board

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

Converter's still on the fritz so:

I'm BB with A

No real reads at this stage.

1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 4 fold, SB calls, Hero raises,
3 call.

Flop (8 sbs -4 players) 4

SB bets, hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold

Turn (5.5 bbs - 3 players) J

SB bets, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, hero calls

River (11.5 bbs - 2 players) T

SB bets, hero calls.

Thoughts?

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

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Nehmer

09-17-2006, 11:25 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Decatur, IL

Posts: 666

I raise the flop here. No reason to let MP1 and UTG+1 see a cheap turn.

Xanadu

09-18-2006, 12:27 AM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

Definitely want to raise the flop here, and not just because the board is bad. Even a non-connected rainbow flop should be raised here.

On the turn, there is no reason to suspect a set unless it's Jacks. Very few players would lead the flop with a set here. You are usually up against 2 pair or a badly played draw here, so it is very bad to fold. Likewise, you need to call the river.

Anosmic

09-18-2006, 06:11 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

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I really don't like the look of a flop raise.

The pot is 10sb, I raise it's 14, they are going to be getting 7:1 odds to call. Any draw here is getting odds.
If then it's checked to me on the turn I bet into what could be a 8.5BB pot, offering 9:1 and any draw is having a hard time folding.

By just calling the flop and raising the a non-diamond, non-3,6,8 turn I can at least ensure that anyone on a draw behind me is making a bad call.

Villain had 68o, not much I could do about that.

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

midas06

09-18-2006, 06:36 AM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 2,196

if you don't raise the flop you're letting thinner draws like gutshots get correct odds to call.

Anosmic

09-18-2006, 06:52 AM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

So give a 30% shot odds to call to the river deny an 8% shot odds to see the turn?

I don't see how that's good for me.

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

sinky

09-18-2006, 09:56 AM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: SCOTLAND

Posts: 295

Quote:

The pot is 10sb, I raise it's 14, they are going to be getting 7:1 odds to call. Any draw here is getting odds.

According to your hand history, the pot is 9sb and you would be raising it to 11sb. Giving the 2 opps behind you 5.5:1. There are occasions where you should not raise the flop to protect your hand, but this is not one of them.

Anosmic

09-18-2006, 12:40 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

Quote:

Originally Posted by sinky

Quote:

The pot is 10sb, I raise it's 14, they are going to be getting 7:1 odds to call. Any draw here is getting odds.

According to your hand history, the pot is 9sb and you would be raising it to 11sb. Giving the 2 opps behind you 5.5:1.

Right. I screwed up there. Good catch.

Quote:

There are occasions where you should not raise the flop to protect your hand, but this is not one of them.

Is this statement in any way related to the previous statement?

If I raise they get 5.5:1, good enough for flush or OESD or even just 2 overs and the chances are if SB checks to me on the turn they're going to have 8:1.

With the call they'll get a nice easy 10:1 shot on the flop but it goes down to under 4.25:1 on the turn and then they need 9 outs (so flush draw scrapes in). Even SB needs better than a gut-shot to call.

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

kyc12

09-18-2006, 03:32 PM

#9 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2006

Posts: 89

Given implied odds those hands are going to call anyways.

The board is too drawish to give a cheap card. Raise and hope for the best. In LHE you cannot force people not to draw. You can only make it as expensive as possible.

Xanadu

09-19-2006, 04:11 PM

#10 (permalink)

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It's true you can't give the 4 flush or the OESD bad odds to call, but in LHE, it is rare to be able to do that anyway. The point of the raise is two-fold ... to protect your hand from draws like backdoor flushes and gutshots and pairs, and also for value. You are likely ahead here, and if ahead are probably about a 50% favorite, so your raise is for value too. Plus, in this hand, if SB is stupid enough to 3-bet the flop, you can call down and save a BB over the line you took.

dizz

09-21-2006, 01:53 AM Post subject: lol

#11 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2006

Location: moscow, ID

Posts: 7

all this odds and making them pay more later crap is bs.

Raise the flop for one reason. value.

Second reason: information.

'nuff said.

NWNewell

09-21-2006, 02:05 AM

#12 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL

Posts: 283

YOU HAVE TO RAISE THE FLOP! FOR VALUE!

I don't give a damn what my opponents drawing odds are. If they are on a draw, then you are the favorite and you have great equity to build the pot. And if you get people to fold, that is just a great side benifit to increase you chances of winning a little.

PLUS, if you actually are behind already (someone floping two pair or a set). I would much rather get 3-bet on the flop for half price and know right away that I need to call down, than get 3-bet on the turn. They way you played it is much more costly when you hare behind, and it is going to cost you value when you are head.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

09-21-2006, 02:56 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

agreed, this is an automatic flop raise
I'm pretty sure at low stakes people WILL call with only a four in their hand or something
at least make their decision incorrect

Anosmic

09-21-2006, 06:25 AM

#14 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

I think I've had some good replies here, and some I'm less sure about

My problem basically is I'm trying to apply what I learned in SSH. Basically I saw here something that corrolates to the "When a raise will not protect your hand" (Part 3: Postflop concepts".

Perhaps the size of the pot and the implied odds for good drawing hands makes this sitatuon different, but that's what I was going for.
If you disagree with SSH then that's fine, but we're obviously coming at the hand with different strategies.

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

dizz

09-21-2006, 07:59 AM

#15 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2006

Location: moscow, ID

Posts: 7

does small stakes also advocate folding when you get 3 bet on the turn?

who are you protecting your hand from? jesus?

Anosmic

09-21-2006, 09:17 AM

#16 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

Quote:

Originally Posted by dizz

does small stakes also advocate folding when you get 3 bet on the turn?

You could read it. Then you could quit bugging me.

Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.

Xanadu

09-21-2006, 02:51 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

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When you protect your hand you are typically trying to protect it from backdoor draws, gutshots, overcards, and small pairs. Stronger draws like OESD and 4 flushes are hard to protect against because they have so many outs they will usually have the odds to call. The hand here is not a case of 'when raising cannot protect your hand' because by raising you offer 5.5:1 odds to UTG+1. These odds are bad enough that gutshots and low pairs and backdoor draws and some combinations thereof do not have sufficient odds.

As played, your raise on the turn gave UTG+1 4.25:1 odds on a call. An OESD or flush draw is going to call here, just as they would have if you had raised the flop. There are very few hands that your line protects your hand from that a flop raise wouldn't have. So you ended up giving a cheap card to UTG+1 when you shouldn't have.

When a flop raise will not protect your hand applies in much larger pot. Also consider that often when the pot is so big you can't protect on the flop, you will also not be able to protect your hand on the turn, so you may as well raise for value on the flop. Sometimes all you can do is value bet.

NWNewell

09-21-2006, 05:49 PM

#18 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL

Posts: 283

SSHE is right, but I don't think you are connecting all the concepts.

If you don't have your fair share of equity for the raise and you are not going to be able to protect your hand, then you may not want to raise.

There are times when you have the best hand at the moment, but don't have enough equity to raise. One of the other reasons you might raise is to protect your best hand. However, if there is a drawing board out there, you won't be able to do that either. So, there is no reason to raise.

But if you have enough equity, you should raise. And in fact when you have enough equity, you WANT people to call.

But with AA, even if hone of them has an open-ended striaght draw AND one has a straight draw (two best draws to overtake your hand), you are are about a 40% favorite. Calling is 9:1, raising is at least 5:1. That will give you +3SB EV to call, and +2.8SB EV to raise. So, it is slightly better to call in one of the worst case drawing situation.

HOWEVER, this is your imediate odds and assumes that if you raise, the third person will fold. Now, if this situation is true, that third person is not going to fold. They will call, maybe even reraise if they are crazy. So, your raise will collect you two more SB for one more SB from you. So, your pot odds are actually going to be 6:1. So your "implied" EV for this worst case situation will be +3.4 to call and +3.6 to raise. And as long as you have two opponents calling, every raise on the flop increases your EV.

The only time you wouldn't have better EV to call is if you one of your opponents had flopped a straigh AND flush draw. Because if the third person has nothing and folds, your raise will lower your EV. And if the thrid person calls, he might additional outs against you making your raise even money or slightly less positive than a call. But this possibility is pretty remote and automaticaly jumping to this conclution right away is playing too scared in my opinion.

Against opponents that have any less of a draw you want to raise have have them stay in because obviously your EV well increase even further. and if they fold, that is fine. You EV will also increase, even if the pot is smaller, because you have a better odds to win the pot against one person than two.

Against almost every possible draw, raising is better EV than calling (so you need to raise for value). Against sum draws it may not be better EV to raise, but the chances of that are so remote that I wouldn't worry about it at this point.

And a more realistice situation is that one of your opponents might have a flush or straight draw. And the other might have a a pair and is drawing for trips or two pair. If that would be the case, you would actually make two mistakes with that one action!!! Not just one!! 1. Calling instead of raising, you mis a value raise that would gain you and extra 0.2BB EV if the player drawing to two pair or trips makes the mistake of calling the raise (it would be correct for him to call 1 bet, but not 2). 2. But if he plays correctly and calls 1 bet, but would fold to 2 bets, you would have +3.8SB EV if you correctly calls the one bet, but you would have +5.5SB EV if he correctly folds to your raise (because now you are a 64% favorite against the remaining flush draw)! So, in this situation, if you call you have approximately +3.6SB EV, but if you raise you can be +3.8SB or +5.5SB EV.

Any weeker draws put you in even better shape to raise. Now, true there are some remote cases that will put your raise at a lower +EV than just a call. But they occur less far often than the cases that put your raise at a higher EV than a call. So, on average, raising this flop is much better EV.

Also, if your opponents are not on a draw and actually have you beat (flopping maybe two pair or trips), I would much rather find out and get get 3-bet on the flop for half the price than get 3-bet on the turn for twice the price.

Wow... I'm tired... I hope you enjoy this read while I got take a nap!

lol...

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

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