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kyc12

09-02-2006, 04:34 AM Post subject: A5o at BB

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2006

Posts: 89

***** Pacific Hand History for Game 146716462 *****
$2/$4 Limit Hold'em - *** 09 01 21:56:09 2006
Table Bull Frog (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 10: boncuk ( $743.51 )
Seat 1: UTG+1 ( $193.75 )
Seat 2: MP1 ( $166.7 )
Seat 3: MP2 ( $36.37 )
Seat 4: MP3 ( $494.1 )
Seat 5: CO ( $111.05 )
Seat 6: Button ( $127.54 )
Seat 7: SB ( $127.41 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $135.3 )
Seat 9: UTG ( $52.5 )
SB posts small blind [$1].
Hero posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac 5d ]
UTG calls [$2].
boncuk calls [$2].
UTG+1 folds.
MP1 calls [$2].
MP2 calls [$2].
MP3 folds.
CO calls [$2].
Button calls [$2].
SB calls [$1].
Hero checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, 2h, 5c ] (8 SB)
SB checks.
Hero checks.
UTG checks.
boncuk checks.
MP1 bets [$2].
MP2 calls [$2].
CO calls [$2].
Button calls [$2].
SB calls [$2].
Hero calls [$2].
UTG folds.
boncuk folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7s ] (7BB)
SB checks.
Hero checks.
MP1 bets [$4].
MP2 calls [$4].
CO calls [$4].
Button calls [$4].
SB folds.
Hero folds.
** Dealing River ** [ 7c ] (11BB)
MP1 bets [$4].
MP2 folds.
CO folds.
Button calls [$4].
** Summary **
MP1 shows [ Kc 4c ].
Button shows [ 4s 4d ].
Button collected [$49.4].

I folded to the turn because I don't think my hand will improve other than hitting another 5. If an A hit, someone probably have a str8. If a 4 hit, someone probably have a 6. Any other card give an overpair. Heck, the way my thinking is, I may just folded the flop.

Is this too pansy?

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Shark Bait

09-02-2006, 04:43 AM Post subject: Re: A5o at BB

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 481

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyc12

Is this too pansy?

you nailed it.

<a500lbgorilla> Limit is poker with training wheels!

outphase

09-03-2006, 04:38 PM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 949

Betting the flop changes the hand slightly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

arkitekton

09-04-2006, 07:18 AM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

lessee...

if you're ahead, and you're ahead about 25% of the time, let's say something like half the deck beats you.

If you're behind, 75% of the time, let's say an Ace saves you half the time, the fives twice, and the fours twice. 5.5 outs sound okay?

.25 x .50 x $13 = +$1.625
.25 x .50 x $2 = -$o.25

.75 x .133 x $13 = +$1.3
.75 x .867 x $2 = - $1.3

Unless you disagree with the assumptions, calling is a big plus EV.

btw, I happen to be straight, but in my experience gay guys are no more or less tough than straight guys, so equating weakness with a stereotype of homosexuals probably isn't the most insightful word choice you could have made in asking, "is this too pansy?".

kyc12

09-04-2006, 03:24 PM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2006

Posts: 89

I apologise for using that word. I was quoting another forum topic "don't be a poker pansy" I saw a while ago. But I'll use other words from now on.

Okay let's go back to the hand. arkitekon, can you explain your math? Is it corresponding to the flop/turn/river situation?

Also, is calling down everyone's opinion? And outphase, if you bet the flop and get rasied, hat do you do? If say you bet the flop and 4 calls, with the same turn card what do you do?

arkitekton

09-05-2006, 12:34 AM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

np, kyc, and thanks for the thoughtful reply. With the math, I honestly didn't go in trying to prove one should call on the flop, though my hunch was that calling was slightly +EV.

The math is concerned with the question of whether to call the turn, as that's when your decision to fold happened to occur. This is also the kind of problem that particularly lends itself well to calculation since your action can end that round of betting--that just cuts down on the unknowable variables.

I'm not claiming my assumptions are spot on, but they seem reasonable to me, and if nothing else provide fuel for rebuttal. The 25% figure I used was in consideration of those times your ahead as of the turn card--I then branched in two directions, with .25 x .50 x $13 = +$1.625, and
.25 x .50 x $2 = -$o.25, where

.25 x .50 x $13 = +$1.625 accounts for
you're ahead (the .25)
you stay ahead (the .50, or half the time)
and what you can expect to win, if you're ahead, and stay ahead (the $13)

the second branch of the equation, .25 x .50 x $2 = -$o.25, takes into account the times you're ahead as of the turn (.25),
the river card--about half the deck, as I mentioned, beats you (.50), and the cost of calling on the turn and the river ($2).

Obviously, sometimes your cost on the turn and river will be less than $2, since if it's bet and raised in front of you, and you're looking at all of a pair of fives, you're likely to fold.

How's that all sound?

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