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99 on xAx flop

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snowboard_31

01-31-2008, 01:01 AM Post subject: 99 on xAx flop

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Mar 2007

Posts: 206

Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (8 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9

, 9

.
3 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (5.40 SB) A

, 5

, 7

(2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero......

Are we peeling one card then folding unimproved? only the 2 nines are really keeping us in this hand if he keeps betting right?

Just to be sure a cbet is mandatory here right?

1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
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"If you can pinpoint a player's range, you can own his soul."
-Bond18

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DrivingDog

01-31-2008, 01:12 AM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

No reads this is an easy puke-fold. C-bet is mandatory because you don't want to give free cards to KQ, KJ, QJ types of hands. Also if you check it encourages him to bluff with these same hands. He might also be bluffing here but more likely we have two outs and insufficient odds to chase in a small pot.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

KoRnholio

01-31-2008, 02:55 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

Yeah I let it go. There really aren't any draws that he could be raising here.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

Fnord

01-31-2008, 03:39 AM

#4 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Usually fold, don't rule out other options though if you think he's FoS.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Ragnar4

01-31-2008, 07:36 AM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

also, if the villan is a thinking player, sklansky argues that you should call here every once in a while to let him know that you won't be pushed off a hand to a simple raise.

If villan is not a thinking player, toss it and hustle his stack later.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

snowboard_31

01-31-2008, 02:28 PM

#6 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Mar 2007

Posts: 206

Im trying to identify leaks in my game so heres another question, when is it correct to peel after your cbet is raised? When the pot is larger? When you can pickup a draw on the turn? when the board is more draw heavy as villian could be raising with a draw?

DrivingDog

01-31-2008, 04:38 PM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

There's no simple answer to this question. Depends on your reads, board texture, position, number of opponents, your outs if behind, size of pot, etc. Can't really be boiled down to a formula that you could compute in your head in 15 seconds.

Assume we plan to just call down here unless we improve, and assume villian will bet every street if we check to him. We can conclude that if we are behind, we have 2 outs, or about a 8% chance of winning by the river (and maybe gaining an extra BB), and if we are ahead, villian probably has about 5 outs on average, or about a 20% chance of improving to beat us by the river.

This means we stand to lose on average -1.7 BB if we're behind on the flop, and win an average of 3.9 if we're ahead on the flop. So we need to be ahead on the flop 29% of the time to make calling down +EV. Certainly reason enough to do so vs. some opponents, but at this level I wouldn't expect it to be worthwhile vs. typical passive fish whose cold calling range includes any Ace.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

arborman

02-05-2008, 11:22 PM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 300

It's best to plan your action prior to c-betting. HU and c-betting you are hoping to fold your opponent on the flop or turn.

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99 on xAx flop

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