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guitarhero14
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06-29-2005, 06:45 PM
Post subject: 99 on a scary board.
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: .05/.10 NL
Posts: 270
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I am getting to the point where bad beats dont phase me too much, i just want to make sure i am playing right. I think i was playing fairly aggressive during this pot even with a scary board. Comments?
PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (8 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 , 9 .
3 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, MP2 calls.
Flop: (8.40 SB) 6 , 4 , 9 (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB calls $0.10 (All-In), MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.
Turn: (9.20 BB) K (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets, Button calls.
River: (11.20 BB) Q (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets, Button calls.
Final Pot: 13.20 BB
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-guitar
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Looks good.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Strung
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 209
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I don't think you could of played it any different. No way I lay it down on the turn with only 3 to a flush and the fact that he didn't raise makes me think he doesn't have a flush or is close. River.... uhhh.... not sure, if you check he's probably gonna bet so I guess you have to decide whether you are going to call it down if he bets to your check. If the answer is yes then maybe it's better to bet and fold to a raise? (being 4 to a flush and all)
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Strung
If the answer is yes then 100% definitely it's better to bet and fold to a raise? (being 4 to a flush and all) and it's not close
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FYP
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Strung
I don't think you could of played it any different. No way I lay it down on the turn with only 3 to a flush and the fact that he didn't raise makes me think he doesn't have a flush or is close. River.... uhhh.... not sure, if you check he's probably gonna bet so I guess you have to decide whether you are going to call it down if he bets to your check. If the answer is yes then maybe it's better to bet and fold to a raise? (being 4 to a flush and all)
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Even if the opponent were to raise Hero's river bet, I can't see the logic in folding. You've got a set of 9s ; that has enough show-down value to call a raise on the river. The pot is big enough that I don't think you can make that laydown (for example, the raise may only mean two pair, or a smaller set). Look at the odds the pot is laying you on the river, you can't fold your set!
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Phyl
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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I'd play it the same.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Phyl
I'd play it the same.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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I don't think a lower set or worse is raising the river on a 4-flush board nearly often enough to call, but maybe I'm just overestimating people. I fold to a river raise here.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TylerK
I don't think a lower set or worse is raising the river on a 4-flush board nearly often enough to call, but maybe I'm just overestimating people. I fold to a river raise here.
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Ok, fair enough; you hit on a key point here. It's player/game/read dependent as to how one should handle a raise on that river.
Let me be more specific. In the loose $10/20 B&M games that I routinely play in, it would definitely be EV+'ve to call a raise on that river with a set of 9s (against some very str8-forward predictable players I would make this laydown, but against others I think I'd have to call). Assume there's a raise to Hero's river bet, there would be 14.2 big bets in the pot and you've got to call one more, so you only have to be good a little under 7% of the time to make this a good call.
Oh shit, there's an all-in player on the flop .... that complicates things because you might only be winning the side pot if you only beat the button but not the all-in. If you put the all-in on the diamond draw, then obviously your equity drops dramatically.
In order to not let that complicate things, let's assume there is no all-in and he folded on the flop. Against a str8-forward, non-tricky player a laydown is definitely safer than it would be against a tricky player that might try to represent the flush as a bluff. But from a strict EV point of view, wouldn't you say that calling is better than folding?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RiverMonkey
you only have to be good a little under 7% of the time to make this a good call.
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At around 7% it doesn't matter what you do. By the time you factor in rake, blah, blah, blah you need to be good 10%+ of the time to call. Although if it's close you might want to call just to discourage someone from taking shots at you. However, even in aggro online games I'm laying this down to most of my opposition. There is a sort of feedback loop going on in the middle limit games and players overall are really passive on the river unless the game is really tough. Hence, there is a lot of calling and little bluffing (nor much incentive to.) A great reason to bet/fold this river.
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