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88 post flop - thoughts

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ArcticKnight

01-29-2006, 08:37 PM Post subject: 88 post flop - thoughts

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: golf course

Posts: 416

I know, what in the hell am I doing at 30/60..
Have no fear, it was a short visit...
I was up and was watching a short handed table and there were two players over 60%VP$IP, so I jumped in.

The SB s 62/30 and MP is 58/29...they are continously hammering each other with less than optimal holdings, and now I'm caught in..

Anyway.. I have question about the flop. Call or Raise??

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8

, 8

.
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, MP caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 6

, 5

, 9

(3 players)
SB checks, MP bets,

So what's the play for Hero here...

Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........

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pokerfanatic

01-29-2006, 08:56 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: 6max limit tables

Posts: 1,968

Way ahead or way behind here... What's your gut tell you...

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord

Xanadu

01-29-2006, 09:03 PM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

Raise that flop and fire one out on the turn regardless of what falls. You are ahead most of the time here with crazy opponents and you still have the gut shot if you aren't.

elipsesjeff

01-29-2006, 10:51 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Location: Northern Virginia

Posts: 4,900

elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

Fight Fire with Water, I call and let him keep betting.

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More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.

Demiparadigm

01-29-2006, 11:04 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Party 6 max

Posts: 1,602

Calling lays the sb 15 to 1. I raise the flop, then slow down on the big streets.

If it were HU, I call.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

koolmoe

01-29-2006, 11:51 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Drowning in prosperity

Posts: 1,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Calling lays the sb 15 to 1. I raise the flop, then slow down on the big streets.

If it were HU, I call.

Poker is freedom

dsaxton

01-30-2006, 02:34 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Arlington, VA

Posts: 2,667

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

Way ahead or way behind here

Wouldn't you say slighty ahead or way behind?

pokerfanatic

01-30-2006, 04:29 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2004

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Posts: 1,968

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

Way ahead or way behind here

Wouldn't you say slightly ahead or way behind?

Even though they are nutty 62/30 and 58/29 I’d like to see post flop numbers as well this only tells me they play too many hands and are over Argo PF tells me nothing about there play post flop... a 62/30/0.82 plays a lot differently after the flop then a 62/30/2.83 would correct? The hand ranges for the action on the flop would change dramatically... Given this is 5 handed there numbers are leaking money but not as bas as if they were playing 10 handed... You have to figure at best you are a ahead and both player have over cards and they share at least one card like AK, KQ v your 88 3 Qs, 2 Ks, 3 As beat you so you have 8 outs where if one held say AK and the other had QJ then you have 6 outs for each hand to beat you so 12 total... really your about 56% to win against both players... assuming they don't share cards if they share one then your more a 70% fav... however since both opponents put in 3 and 4 bets I have to figure they both have solid hands even though they are raising around 30% how likely are they to be 3 betting and capping all 30% I’d say it's more around 5-10% of 30%... so really I have to put at least one of them on a hole pair and the other on two big cards... so if either of them have like A9s say which is possible, you are now about 24% to win and reduced to two outs... so really if it was HU this situation would be a slightly ahead or way behind but because it is 3 handed it has potential of being way ahead when they share outs... though I think a vast majority of the range I can put them on even with there nutty PF play is at least one of them probably has a bigger pair then you have, so I would give myself 4 outs to the GS and 2 for a set so 6 outs, 13:1 you can make a call but I don't know if you want to be raising a 6 outer, sure it works out great if your ahead because they slow down but if your behind you're surly putting in 3 bets on 6 outs or less...

So I said you are either way ahead or way behind because of future betting rounds, when you are ahead you can become way ahead with the right card or already be way ahead when they share outs... but when your way behind it's going to coast to draw and you might only have a GSD if they played 99 that way or something or catches a bigger set on the turn hand you river your set... the future rounds make it become one of those well your going to pay out the ass when way behind, or they get to draw for the right price when your way ahead and they share outs... to me it's kind of a fucked up spot and seems like a lose lose situation... because if you are ahead there are SOO many more cards that can fuck your hand then help it...

I was kind of using a saying that everyone knows for a tough decision though your line is probably more accurate given my break down… Though if I knew there post flop play little bit bettor it would be easier to further define the hand…

that was kind of long winded sorry bout that...

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