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Hermann the Lombard
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10-15-2007, 06:53 PM
Post subject: 77 & OESD on FD board
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 7 , 7 .
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.
Flop: (5.40 SB) 9 , 8, 6 (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, MP2 folds, Hero...
Should I call two cold with a lowish pair and an OESD on a FD board? I have to discount the T  7 5 as they may complete someone's flush, and 7  may give me a losing set. I'm not likely to split on a straight because of my two sevens.
Not much info on the opponents. BB is a 38/0 but I haven't seen any hands. UTG is a gambler, 86/21, saw him call PFR in CO with 88 then c/c every street after AJx flop. UTG+1 is a 53/0 making his raise ominous even with no post-flop numbers...but I had seen him make a flush on the river and check it.
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Fnord
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Small pot, passive raiser, I would make a tight fold here.
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
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I fold, especially if you think UTG might 3bet. Then I curse if a  comes on the turn followed by a  .
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I'd probably call here without time to think it through but it's an interesting hand academically because it's a really good example of a situation where it's difficult to count your outs. Ostensibly you have 10 outs to a set or better, but most of those outs are tainted, so 10 outs is too high an estimate.
On the other hand, I don't think you can discount every diamond that improves your hand just because it puts three diamonds on the board. A priori , the chance of a FD being out there with three opponents is < 1/4. There's a lot of hands people could have here that you'll be beating if you hit - Ax, JJ+, two pair, etc. and most of those hands would be left drawing fairly thin.
So I'd maybe subtract one out for Td,7d,5d combined, and a half out for a T that gives someone a higher straight. Maybe subtract another half out for being up against a bigger set or JT where a 7 is no good. Finally, subtract maybe another half an out for the possibility of making our hand and being outdrawn on the river (most likely when a four flush hits). That leaves us with 10-1-.5-.5-1 = 7.5 outs on average to the best hand-- getting 4:1 it's just barely worth paying two more bets to see the turn.
However, we also have to consider how the initial bettor will respond to the raise. If it gets capped back to us one out of four times on average (and we definitely couldn't fold if it did) we'd be getting 3.8:1 on average which would sway it towards a marginal fold.
A lot of estimation involved about counting outs, how often it'll get capped, etc., (and i could be missing something) but it is an interesting marginal decision in any case.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Pretty thin either way. I tend to fold the superthin marginal calls, especially with the possibility of a 3bet or cap. It might be a micro-thin +EV call, but it's tricky to calculate that in less than 15 seconds, at least for me.
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Fnord
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Moderator
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I think you're drawing to half a pot often enough to dump this.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I think you're drawing to half a pot often enough to dump this.
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....and there's the something i was missing. Yeah good eye.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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I figured it as "about 8 outs" so the 7.5 estimate seems good. I thought of it in terms of odds and not of the small pot, and I didn't think in terms of discounting for a possible split pot. Marginal-to-solid fold, I guess. The next round was NOT marginal.
PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 7.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.
Flop: (5.40 SB) 9, 8, 6 (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, MP2 folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls.
Turn: (5.70 BB) K (3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero...
I played it wrong anyway.
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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It's not a completed flush often enough to fold yet, IMO. UTG+1 doesn't have a flush, and UTG probably does have it. You might be drawing dead, but if you aren't you have a few outs left (~6), making a call a reasonable choice since you close the action. You probably lose this hand, but your equity is enough to stay in until the river IMO.
Of course, if river misses then fold.
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Fnord
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Moderator
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I guess none of you guys play Hi/Lo split games?
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I guess none of you guys play Hi/Lo split games?
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In a Hold'em context I don't even know what that means. Seven stud, on the other hand...
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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Fnord
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Moderator
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It means something in the context of basic poker principals.
You're grossly under-estimating how bad it sucks to draw to half a pot.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
It means something in the context of basic poker principals.
You're grossly under-estimating how bad it sucks to draw to half a pot.
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If you could see a 7 in someone else's hand it would cut your odds exactly in half. Also they would hold one of your outs to a set!
Holding two of the sevens makes the chance of open-limper having a seven relatively small, but still can't be ignored. Maybe slash off another 1/2 or 1 out. Sways it from a marginal fold to a clear fold imo.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
If you could see a 7 in someone else's hand it would cut your odds exactly in half.
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Abort, Retry, Fail?
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
If you could see a 7 in someone else's hand it would cut your odds exactly in half.
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Abort, Retry, Fail? |
I take it you're meaning to say 'this is wrong'? If you're paying 2 bets to win 12 (the whole pot) that's 6:1, if you're paying 2 to win 6 (half the pot) that's 3:1. No?
You would also have to subtract one out from the chances of you hitting a set if you could see a 7.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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http://www.pokerplayernewspaper.com/...le.php?id=1853
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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It took a while for Caro to get to the point, but when he did it was short and sharp. Thanks for the lesson!
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
http://www.pokerplayernewspaper.com/viewarticle.php?id=1853
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ok thanks.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I just today received a copy of Slotboom and Mason's 'Hold em on the Come' (i think it's only out in Europe presently). They recommend deducting one out from and OESD if you're using only one of your cards (because you might split the pot), and one more on a two flush board with three or more opponents (not applicable here), and one if someone could make a higher straight (i.e, T comes and someone has QJ). Not clear how they'd count the set outs, but deducting one out because it puts four to a straight on board seems sensible.
So with two opponents left i guess they'd call this hand a seven-outter....
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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