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Lance
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01-11-2009, 08:07 PM
Post subject: 6th hand
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 210
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PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) -
Villain 73/9/0.6 (22 hands)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A , 5
2 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls
Flop: (7.5 SB) 9 , 5 , K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls
Turn: (5.75 BB) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls
River: (7.75 BB) K (2 players)
Hero ?
Value bet here ?
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MarkWade
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Texas
Posts: 10
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Is there any value in betting? I don't see him calling with a worse hand. And the way he's called you down so far with no draw on the flop, I don't see him laying down a better hand at this point. I check.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Unless he's a really weird player, this guy's pf 3betting range has us completely crushed. I check/call the flop and probably fold the turn if he bets again.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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MSG85
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Two Pair
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 48
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Unless he's a really weird player, this guy's pf 3betting range has us completely crushed. I check/call the flop and probably fold the turn if he bets again.
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Yea, the only hand I see in his pf 3-bet range that we beat is AQ and maybe AJs.
As played I would c/f the river vs this player, although I think the K on the river and the size of the pot makes c/c somewhat close vs a TAG or LAG.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by MarkWade
Is there any value in betting? I don't see him calling with a worse hand.
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ok, its about time to call you out, mark. do you understand the term valuebet? we WANT worse to call.
i am leaning towards b/f since i am not c/f'ing this. but, i am not c/c'ing this since i think we are beat.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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MSG85
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Two Pair
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 48
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
Quote:
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Originally Posted by MarkWade
Is there any value in betting? I don't see him calling with a worse hand.
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ok, its about time to call you out, mark. do you understand the term valuebet? we WANT worse to call.
i am leaning towards b/f since i am not c/f'ing this. but, i am not c/c'ing this since i think we are beat. |
Wouldn't you need at least 50% equity vs his range (assuming he calls a river bet with 100% of his range) to make value betting correct? I could be wrong about that, I don't participate much in poker discussions so maybe am misunderstanding things.
But if that is the case:
If his pf 3b range is fairly wide for a passive player, say something like: AA-TT, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ (~9-10%), then we are still behind too much on the river to value bet (we are ahead of about 47% of this range on the river). Even if he called us all the way down with that whole range, and would call our river bet with hands as bad as QJhh, we lose money by betting.
I think if we are b/f here it is as a bluff, and I see no value bluffing in this spot.
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
Quote:
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Originally Posted by MarkWade
Is there any value in betting? I don't see him calling with a worse hand.
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ok, its about time to call you out, mark. do you understand the term valuebet? we WANT worse to call. |
No, what he's getting at is that the only hands that call are hands that likely have us beat. I agree. I don't think this is a value bet opportunity.
Check/call. Maybe it will induce a bluff and he flips up AJ or AQ but I'd say he's got TT-QQ.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
i am leaning towards b/f since i am not c/f'ing this. but, i am not c/c'ing this since i think we are beat.
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Not sure why you're betting if you think we're beat. The chance of him folding at this point is close to nil.
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MarkWade
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Texas
Posts: 10
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
Quote:
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Originally Posted by MarkWade
Is there any value in betting? I don't see him calling with a worse hand.
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ok, its about time to call you out, mark. do you understand the term valuebet? we WANT worse to call. |
I understand a value bet. You want a call from a worse hand. I get that. So the crux is - do you think this guy is going to call with a worse hand than the hero's? I don't think he will. I think we will only get looked up by better hands. Hence, I check.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by MarkWade
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
Quote:
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Originally Posted by MarkWade
Is there any value in betting? I don't see him calling with a worse hand.
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ok, its about time to call you out, mark. do you understand the term valuebet? we WANT worse to call. |
I understand a value bet. You want a call from a worse hand. I get that. So the crux is - do you think this guy is going to call with a worse hand than the hero's? I don't think he will. I think we will only get looked up by better hands. Hence, I check. |
just checking. the wording threw me off; i clearly misunderstood. that said, i tend to b/f when i feel we are in for value...i didnt say we were. i just meant that IF we were, b/f is better than c/c.
now, if we are thinking we are beat, but arent folding and want to increase our winning chances by, hopefully, inducing a bluff or "widening villains range," then, we obv c/c.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Lance
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 210
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c/c the river and he showed AQo
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I guess you can't underestimate the stupidity of some guys. I mean really what does he think he's beating with AQ after you c/r the flop on that board? QJ, QT, JT, sure, but you're not going to c/c the river with those!
Nice hand.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Lance
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 210
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Very often we see here QQ, JJ, TT,
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socal1111
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 191
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Unless he's a really weird player, this guy's pf 3betting range has us completely crushed. I check/call the flop and probably fold the turn if he bets again.
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You've got to be kidding me!!!!
Hero has bp, and nut fd (unpaired board)... and an ACE!
YOU WANT HIM TO FOLD TURN?????
HORRIBLE!
DD: Is your wife/girlfriend posting for you?
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"We don't stop playing because we get old. We get old because we stop playing!" -Doyle
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I missed that we picked up the FD on the turn. My bad.
Socal is your wife/gf posting for you? You seem very emotional.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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socal1111
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 191
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Socal is your wife/gf posting for you? You seem very emotional.
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HAHAHAHA!!
No, but she WAS going thru very strong contractions every 5 minutes as I was posting! I'm not joking, actually... she really is about to have our first. Maybe I AM a bit emotional 
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"We don't stop playing because we get old. We get old because we stop playing!" -Doyle
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Dude, you're gonna get hit not paying attention to her. You don't want a woman giving birth to start swinging at you...they get superhuman from all the hormones.
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Trons
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 86
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I hate to use a read after only 22 hands without examples of what he's showndown and how he's played it. He could have easily gotten a strange set of hands to cause those numbers.
I'll probably take some heat for this, but it may start an interesting question:
Lance, are you by any chance a NL Player normally? I'm not quite sure what the idea behind the open raise is here? I don't mind playing Axs if there are several limpers in the pot before you, but it's mainly a drawing hand. As played, the open raise sounds like it's from the school of "if it's good enough to open, it's good enough to raise" and I've never bought into that (NL and tourney play is very different here). IF you have position and you have the odds, then yeah, OOP and pot odds not being there and I'm not thrilled here.
Basically to play this hand profitably (imo) you have to have some nice odds to pay on those times you hit to cover the times you don't (which will be most of the time. He also 3 bet you PF and king hits and you C/R him?
I'm all about pushing marginal hands far with the vast majority of players we have at the tables, but C/R'in a 3bettor with a K high board I don't think is the way to do this.
I said I didn't like using his numbers with only 22 hands, but I'm going to...the numbers tell me that he has a fairly good grasp of what hands are raising hands and while they maybe a little looser then my numbers (I'm running about 6.75 PFR) they still aren't so far off the scale that we can't put a K in a lot of the hands he's 3betting you with.
In this hand it seemed to work, but over all I think C/R a flop with a pair of 5's may be a bit much. One more thing to look at (if he's shown that while very LAG, he's also a decent post flop player) is what kind of hands might he have raised with...if I'm in his position, I'm prefering mid to high PP's to 3bet because I want it heads up where my PP has an edge over your Ax (hopefully)....I'd make his play with 88+ almost everytime...not something you want to run into with a pair of 5's on the flop.
Either way, I'd note that this guy called down with A high and tried to bluff the river against a check...very valuable info in the future.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Trons is right!
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Jsttrons
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sinky
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: SCOTLAND
Posts: 295
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trons
Lance, are you by any chance a NL Player normally? I'm not quite sure what the idea behind the open raise is here? I don't mind playing Axs if there are several limpers in the pot before you, but it's mainly a drawing hand. As played, the open raise sounds like it's from the school of "if it's good enough to open, it's good enough to raise" and I've never bought into that (NL and tourney play is very different here). IF you have position and you have the odds, then yeah, OOP and pot odds not being there and I'm not thrilled here.
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It's 6 handed, EP and HJ folded, you have A5s. This is a open raise every time. In this situation we are not playing this hand because of it's suitedness. We have an Ace and shorthanded it will be the only A more often than not. Only problem I see with the raise in this particular hand is that we have a poor seat. Villain is going to be cold calling a lot, giving the blinds nice odds to call us.
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Trons
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 86
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I didn't notice it was 6m...I wrote this right before going to bed...please forget what I said and continue taking money from the donks 
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Trons is right!
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Jsttrons
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Lance
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 210
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Quote:
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It's 6 handed, EP and HJ folded, you have A5s. This is a open raise every time. In this situation we are not playing this hand because of it's suitedness. We have an Ace and shorthanded it will be the only A more often than not. Only problem I see with the raise in this particular hand is that we have a poor seat. Villain is going to be cold calling a lot, giving the blinds nice odds to call us.
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i think c/r on the flop is still better than b/c, c/c or c/f.
And 73/9/0.6 (22 hands) its enough to know he is a donk.
As i said, many times you see villain's hands like TT, JJ at the showdown.
Nobody wants to give up a bottom pair on the flop against preflop 3-donkbettor
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Trons
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 86
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lance
i think c/r on the flop is still better than b/c, c/c or c/f.
And 73/9/0.6 (22 hands) its enough to know he is a donk.
As i said, many times you see villain's hands like TT, JJ at the showdown.
Nobody wants to give up a bottom pair on the flop against preflop 3-donkbettor
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The only problem I see with this is the 73/9/0.6.
If we're not above half of his 9%, then we may be screwed...and how many of his 9% include a K (on the flop)?
The 73% shows that he likes to see a lot of hands, which is fine from a "he just limped into my pot" stand-point, but a 3bet PF usually indicates some kind of strength...and with that flop, it hits a lot of what he's 3betting PF with. That's why I don't like the c/r on the flop with bottom pair.
You stated that a lot of times you'll see hands like TT and JJ at showdown, both of which beat our 5's...
I personally think that hero got lucky with his aggro and villain called down with an A high...
I say all this with FR in mind. Hands like this is the reason I don't think I could play 6max profitably.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Trons is right!
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Jsttrons
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