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5 card draw, draw for GSSD or for back doors

  
 
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surviva316
Old 09-08-2009, 07:18 PM     Post subject: 5 card draw, draw for GSSD or for back doors #1 (permalink)  
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 PokerStars Game #32604395167: 5 Card Draw Limit ($0.10/$0.20 USD) - 2009/09/08 15:02:13 ET
Table 'Eureka VI' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Nickolay59 ($3.84 in chips)
Seat 3: Natacha1982 ($1.82 in chips)
Seat 4: surviva316 ($3.74 in chips)
Seat 5: rperez39 ($5.79 in chips)
Seat 6: TappinDat ($2.87 in chips)
Natacha1982: posts small blind $0.05
surviva316: posts big blind $0.10
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to surviva316 [3c 5h Ah Ts 4h]
rperez39: folds
TappinDat: folds
Nickolay59: calls $0.10
Natacha1982: calls $0.05
surviva316: checks
Natacha1982: discards 3 cards
surviva316: discards 1 card [Ts]

still pretty new to this 5 card draw thing, so i'm not sure about the maths here. villains are both passive and are pretty loose pre-draw, so if i draw even just a pair of aces, then i can have it be checked around and take the pot a lot of times.

should i just go for my 1/12 chance for the straight, or should i draw both the T and the 3 and go for a very meager shot at the straight + meh shot at the flush + all sorts of pair of A's or better possibilities?

i understand i should be more likely to go after the backdoors if ANY of the two cards were connected and less likely if my opponents are tighter and more aggressive
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TLR
Old 09-08-2009, 09:04 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think dropping the T & 3 is a bad , you are better off discarding the 345


 
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brian1175
Old 12-30-2009, 03:57 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I draw 4 to the ace.
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oskar
Old 12-31-2009, 01:13 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brian1175
I draw 4 to the ace.
that exactly

opponent draws 3 so he has a pair or highcards ldo.
when you draw to the 2, you will make a straight 4/42 times or less than 10% of the time, and a pair of aces 3/42 or 7% of the time.

When you discard 4 and keep the ace you will make a pair of aces
( (3/42) * (38/41)^3 )*4 or roughly 23% of the time.

obviously then he can make trips, and you can make trips, and you can make kings or queens that beat his TT... and so on.

The only time you ever want to draw with a 10% chance of making a hand in 5-draw is when you are pretty damn sure that one or more opponents have a monster that they are willing to pay you off with. What's the point in making a straight against a pair?
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samsmoot
Old 03-10-2010, 11:49 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TLR View Post
I think dropping the T & 3 is a bad , you are better off discarding the 345
I agree - discarding four looks weak, but would listen to an argument in its favour.
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