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400 PLO8 - bet river for whatever reason?

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salsa4ever

09-06-2007, 03:03 AM Post subject: 400 PLO8 - bet river for whatever reason?

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Melbourne

Posts: 1,073

There is no history between me and villain. He seems kind of tight, he hasn't shown down very much and has rebought a couple of times when he fell to about $350.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $229.50
UTG+1: $490.80
MP1: $358.05
MP2: $410.30
HERO: $489.30
CO: $104.45
Button: $417.55
SB: $107.20
BB: $196.20

Pre-flop: (9 players) HERO is MP3 with A

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, HERO raises to $12, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 3

($40, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, HERO bets $28, SB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: K

($96, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, HERO bets $80, UTG+1 calls.

River: 9

($256, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, HERO ???

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigred

Would you bone your cousins? Salsa would.

Quote:

Originally Posted by salsa4ever

well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?

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Fnord

09-06-2007, 03:07 AM

#2 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Why do we think he has anything but A2xx here?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

salsa4ever

09-06-2007, 03:30 AM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Melbourne

Posts: 1,073

I think it's extremely likely that he has A2 here. But if he does have A2, it's actually very unlikely for him to win high, and if he actually did have me beat both ways (he'd have to play all four cards... so - A255 or A246 or something) I don't think he'd go check check check.

Therefore, we have three options:

1. check - low risk option against probable A2
2. bet the pot. try to drive out A2 by representing a better A2. Depending on what A2 he has, possible. I don't know whether he's capable of laying down nut low, but if I had to guess, I'd guess no.
3. intermediate bet, hoping that an inferior A4 comes along or maybe just AA hoping to split the pot. But I open myself up to a check raise if he's really slowplaying a monster...

To answer your question, here's some hands he MIGHT realistically have that I can beat (or drive off for half).

AAxx, especially AA4x or AA6x or AAxx with clubs
Some kind of set: A377 or something
Some kind of non-ace low hand: 2345

But I agree most likely he has A2

Fnord

09-07-2007, 08:18 AM

#4 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

I'm leaning towards a value shove. Wouldn't a two way hand have woken up by now?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Pelion

09-07-2007, 11:30 AM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 3,206

Well he either has A2xx or he has a better one way hand than you. I cant see how betting *is* betting for value since we are almost always splitting when he calls. If we bet I think we shove as a bluff and then win half the pot when he calls most of the time anyway.

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

Fnord

09-10-2007, 12:21 AM

#6 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

If he has A2xx with no high value then shoving puts him in a very difficult spot. He either gets quartered or gives up a pretty big pot.

Our only fear is getting quartered by a better A2xx, but with no aggression shown so far I'm inclined to think we got this locked up. Still worst case is we get quartered.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

bigspenda73

09-10-2007, 12:40 AM

#7 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,545

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

um, we don't have A2xx fnord

salsa4ever

09-10-2007, 03:05 AM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Melbourne

Posts: 1,073

^^

correct.

if I had A235, I would not be posting this hand, and the decision would be a total nobrainer

Fnord

09-11-2007, 01:44 AM

#9 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

So why did you bet the turn?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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400 PLO8 - bet river for whatever reason?

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