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3 handed Razz, river action?

  
 
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bigspenda73
Old 08-21-2008, 08:10 AM     Post subject: 3 handed Razz, river action? #1 (permalink)  
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 Stars $2/$4 razz game, dont have HH's but I'll do my best.

Villain is new since the O8 orbit, he made a few questionable calldowns in 3bet pots when I tried to shut him out.

Villain brings in a Ten
FishMcSpewmonkey completes a 5
I call with 3 7 6
Villain calls

4th
Villain xxT3
Fish xx5K
Hero 3672

Hero bets, villain calls, fish folds

5th
Villain xxT38
Hero 37628

Hero bets, villain calls (orly)

6th (4BBs)
Villain xxT388
Hero 37268Q

Hero bets, villain calls (orly)
Thinking is he has to have A2/A4/24 underneath

7th (6BBs)
Hero 37268QK
Villain xxT388x

Hero............

Is this a bet/fold, bet/call, bet/3bet, c/c, c/r??

Ok, let's say he has A4T388x giving him a 2/5/6/7 for the win. That's 12 outs (we have 3 of em and fish folded a five) so it looks like he wins 12/37 times or about 33% of the time. I'm trying to determine what the best play is.

Rating, in my mind, from worst to best

b/3bet
c/r
b/c
c/c
b/f

I always seem to default to c/c here but is that really the right play? He can already have a ten, which I'm not sure if he'll valuebet on the end. If he does, I'm not sure if he'll call a c/r enough to show a profit for re-opening the betting. If he has a ten he def. calls a river lead but may/may not bet the river. If he bricked/paired I doubt he fires here, seems pretty suicidal against someone who was repping an 8 on 5th BUT maybe he has to be bluffing here (game theory Sklansky right) a certain % of the time.
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TLR
Old 08-21-2008, 03:14 PM #2 (permalink)  
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TLR is an unknown quantity at this point
 Assuming he has T38xx I think the possible outcomes are as follows

1. You bet - he improves T 8 low he either call or raises, and you call lets say he raises 50% of the time, so you lost 1.5 bets

2. You bet and he does not improve, he may call you with 9 or T high, probably not with your board, I think giving him 50% chance of calling is generous given the way the hand was played, so you win 0.5 bets on average

If you check and he checks behind you gain 0, if you check and he improves he will bet and you will call, so you lose 1 bet on average.

I think pot is big enough to rule bet/fold or c/f out of the question, and checking has a better chance to induce a bluff or a wrong value bet with T/9 then betting

He will improve 33% of the time

so c/c = 2/3*0 + 1/3(-1) = -0.33
b/c = 1/3(-1.5) + 2/3*(0.5) = -0.17

The question is does checking to induce a worse hand to bet will make up the difference, and will he pay you 50% of the time with T/9


 
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-21-2008, 06:57 AM #3 (permalink)  
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FWIW, I 3-bet here on 3rd street to shut out the T.

I'm not sure you're ever far enough ahead in Razz on 3rd st to want to see it 3-handed when you can get it HU. But I'm still learning too.
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dsaxton
Old 09-21-2008, 03:16 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
FWIW, I 3-bet here on 3rd street to shut out the T.
The T is almost never calling anyways. He has to both be a fish and have premium low cards in the hole; an unlikely combination. Besides, I don't think you mind an overcall in the event that he actually is bad enough to call with his hand.

In my opinion, a 3-bet should just be for value against a chronic stealer.

I would probably bet / fold the river.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-21-2008, 06:52 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
FWIW, I 3-bet here on 3rd street to shut out the T.
The T is almost never calling anyways. He has to both be a fish and have premium low cards in the hole; an unlikely combination. Besides, I don't think you mind an overcall in the event that he actually is bad enough to call with his hand.

In my opinion, a 3-bet should just be for value against a chronic stealer.
I'm just not sure the dead money you gain in encouraging the pot to go 3-handed is worth the equity you lose if it so happens, as here, that the T is bad enough to call.
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mcatdog
Old 09-23-2008, 09:01 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
I'm just not sure the dead money you gain in encouraging the pot to go 3-handed is worth the equity you lose if it so happens, as here, that the T is bad enough to call.
This doesn't make sense. If him calling with his T is a bad play, then it has to be good for you to have him call. The value he's losing has to end up somewhere!

As for the hand I would bet/call. He already showed that he doesn't know how to play razz, I'm not giving him any credit with the board he has. For all we know he thinks he's playing stud and he'll raise the river with three of a kind.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-23-2008, 08:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
I'm just not sure the dead money you gain in encouraging the pot to go 3-handed is worth the equity you lose if it so happens, as here, that the T is bad enough to call.
This doesn't make sense. If him calling with his T is a bad play, then it has to be good for you to have him call. The value he's losing has to end up somewhere!
Umm...look again? There are antes and his bring-in already in the pot. That's less true 3-handed, but I think it still applies. Getting it HU gives you a significantly better chance of winning that money. Let's look at some numbers...There's $1.20 in from antes. Then another $0.50 in the bring-in. Add in Fish's $2, and we're at $3.70. But once we also call, it'll be $5.70. That's giving him almost 4-1 express odds to call. I don't think we're really ever far enough ahead to want to offer those odds, but let's take it a step further.

Against the range of xx5 hands that complete, we're probably about even money. Our expectation is .5*$3.70 -.5*2= +$0.85, whether we call or 3-bet, assuming it is HU (since Fish never folds anything he completed with). Now let's say villain has a 25% chance of winning, taking 12.5% from us and 12.5% from Fish. Our expectation is .375*$5.20 - .625*2 = +$0.7. Even if you argue that his chance to win is not 25%, you can't argue that keeping him in is anything better than marginal, and it will dramatically increase your variance. Not to mention the benefits on later streets that come from you being in the driver's seat.
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dsaxton
Old 09-23-2008, 10:02 PM #8 (permalink)  
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If you don't want to play a pot with someone who has a dog shit hand that's also exposed, I don't know what to say.

Also, you math is extremely oversimplified. Your expectation in the hand is not some weighted average of the money that goes in on 3rd street using some hot and cold equity calculation. There is actually money to be bet on all streets, and your expectation in the hand is the sum of your expectations on all streets (which is of course virtually impossible to calculate). The player with the T up will be giving up tons of value on later streets (either by folding the best hand or giving too much action with way the worst hand) that will surely compensate for whatever equity is lost from allowing him into the pot (once again, this is mostly a moot point since he's hardly ever calling).
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mcatdog
Old 09-23-2008, 10:24 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Jeffrey,

You realize that if your math is correct it implies that the guy should be calling 3rd street with his T? I'm not even making an argument on whether the T should call or not call (although I think his call is horrible that's not my point) it's just the fundamental theorem of poker that if your opponents make a mistake then you gain, and if your opponents' actions hurt your equity then he must be making the right play. Equity isn't created out of thin air.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-24-2008, 08:36 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Jeffrey,

You realize that if your math is correct it implies that the guy should be calling 3rd street with his T? I'm not even making an argument on whether the T should call or not call (although I think his call is horrible that's not my point) it's just the fundamental theorem of poker that if your opponents make a mistake then you gain, and if your opponents' actions hurt your equity then he must be making the right play. Equity isn't created out of thin air.
Money already in the pot can make some pretty strange things marginally correct. The marginally part is enough that a good player would probably not want to play the T here.

On another note, you're misapplying the fundamental theorem of poker there. Yes, you gain from your opponent making mistakes. But in a world outside a vacuum there are other considerations. Here's another overly simplified example: You hold AA in hold'em. Everyone at the table calls your preflop bet. That them doing this is a mistake doesn't change the fact that it very much hurts your equity in the hand.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-24-2008, 08:43 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
If you don't want to play a pot with someone who has a dog shit hand that's also exposed, I don't know what to say.

Also, you math is extremely oversimplified. Your expectation in the hand is not some weighted average of the money that goes in on 3rd street using some hot and cold equity calculation. There is actually money to be bet on all streets, and your expectation in the hand is the sum of your expectations on all streets (which is of course virtually impossible to calculate). The player with the T up will be giving up tons of value on later streets (either by folding the best hand or giving too much action with way the worst hand) that will surely compensate for whatever equity is lost from allowing him into the pot (once again, this is mostly a moot point since he's hardly ever calling).
I agree. The math is oversimplified. I wasn't looking at future streets at all. Assuming they are break even from this point forward, the calculations and related conclusions still hold. I'll admit that it may be worthwhile to take the small hit in equity here if you can make up for it once the betting gets big on later streets. Then again, who do you think you make more from: a decent player with a T showing in a 3-way pot, or a fishy player in a large pot HU?

FWIW, I'll quote Ted Forrest from his writings on Razz in the Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide: "It is pretty rare that you want multiway action in razz." (page 407, final sentence).
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dsaxton
Old 09-24-2008, 10:21 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Assuming they are break even from this point forward, the calculations and related conclusions still hold.
Ok, but the assumption is obviously wrong when the guy has a T showing and his opponents are playing almost perfectly against him.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-24-2008, 11:48 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
who do you think you make more from [on later streets]: a decent player with a T showing in a 3-way pot, or a fishy player in a large pot HU?
And further more (somehow I missed this until just now when I reviewed the OP and learned that my thought of villain being decent was wrong):
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Villain is new since the O8 orbit, he made a few questionable calldowns in 3bet pots when I tried to shut him out.
Doesn't this mean that even if we're trying to get more value out of villain, we're better off 3-betting because he is likely to call, even with a T?
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mcatdog
Old 09-25-2008, 12:58 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
On another note, you're misapplying the fundamental theorem of poker there. Yes, you gain from your opponent making mistakes. But in a world outside a vacuum there are other considerations. Here's another overly simplified example: You hold AA in hold'em. Everyone at the table calls your preflop bet. That them doing this is a mistake doesn't change the fact that it very much hurts your equity in the hand.
This thing about AA wanting the pot heads-up to maximize its equity is kind of a canard. I just did a Monte Carlo simulation that says if AA goes all-in for $100 and gets called by 5 random hands, it has 48.9% equity, which means we get $293 back on our investment. If we just get called by one random hand, we have 85.2% equity, and get back $170. They are making mistakes and it helps your equity a ton, just like the fundamental theorem of poker says it should. Now you can say that getting 5 callers makes AA too hard to play postflop and you'd be right. But just from the simplified perspective of hot-cold equity, getting all these callers doesn't hurt your equity, it helps it big time.

I think in this razz hand, the opposite is going on. Using the simplified 3rd street math, the T should call, but we don't want him to, but based on how the hand is actually going to play out, he shouldn't call, and we do want him to.
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DrivingDog
Old 10-01-2008, 04:43 PM #15 (permalink)  
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He makes a bigger mistake by calling a 3bet, give him the chance.
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dsaxton
Old 10-02-2008, 12:03 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
He makes a bigger mistake by calling a 3bet, give him the chance.
For the sake of being pedantic, it's actually a 2-bet.
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baudib
Old 12-01-2008, 03:20 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Low-limit razz is the easiest (but most boring) way to grind out consistent profits. Y/N?

I think reads are important, if you think he could three-bet with hands you beat then c/c is ok.

IMO, multiway action in razz produces some of your more profitable pots...It's rare that there are 3 or more quality starting razz hands, so someone is often in there with a brick or pair underneath and is putting bad money into the pot.
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Phantaroth
Old 02-05-2009, 06:32 PM #18 (permalink)  
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I think c/c is almost always the best play here, but then again, I play at a lower $ level Razz and everyone there sucks at Razz.
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ThatsSoMinusEV
Old 02-18-2009, 12:30 AM     Post subject: Replying #19 (permalink)  
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with your hand and read on villian a raise is appropriate here. You don't want the T coming along because it greatly dimishes your equity in the pot, and obviously you get heads up with the "fishmcspewmonkey" whose range of hands your ahead of. If he does 3bet you then, then you can eliminate hands from his range and call. Your not going to be that much of a dog so it's really not the end of the world even if he has like A25 in the hole. Get value from his wide range and make the ten make a bigger mistake by cold-calling the raise.

4th, 5th and 6th are bets

7th I'm sure that villian will check back all tens and nines that we can get value from, but whether he'll call you with them is puzzling. I believe that with villians misplaying of 3rd he will feel like he has to call made nines and probably tens too. However, i never feel that he'd raise a worse hand. So, i think bet/folding is the best line here...

p.s. as played, villians line isn't so bad on 5th or 6th with something like A2-24 in the hole. You only flatted 3rd, 4th was an autobet and so he's getting odds to call down with against a reasonable range of (9-9-28)6.
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Mr Bigcity
Old 02-18-2009, 02:12 AM #20 (permalink)  
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you should bet so that he does not get control of the hand on the river and maybe bluff you off the best hand. If you wanna play it conservative then just check and call a bet if he does take a stab at the pot
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