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Knytestorme
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06-27-2008, 06:34 AM
Post subject: 25k checkup, time to move up?
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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hey guys, thought I'd post my 25k hand stats and get some opinions on if I'm ready to move up or not.
Have been playing 6-max 0.5/1 LHE as my game most recently, at Stars and results are as follows.
Standard Deviation/100: 15.8514
Now bankroll isn't an issue for moving up to 1/2, am now at $3620, but according to the uDevil confidence calculator I'm only at 76.95% confidence of being a winner...and that is my concern
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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stats look fine, but 50-100k would be a better sample size.
VP and PFR should be closer together tho, imo.
However, if BR is not an issue and u have the confidence, u should try moving up.
If after a few ks hands, you dont feel it right or dont get good results, move back down for another while
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"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.
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Knytestorme
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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Yeah, should have mentioned that I know my pfr is too low, have been working on getting it up but think it's a function of playing too nitty for 15k hands or so after coming from nl FR playing like 12/6....has been the hardest adjustment for me.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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You play soooo tight...
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Knytestorme
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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Always hard to read you Fnord 
I'm aiming to try to get to around 24/20 overall so I thought for 6-max that my VP$IP was pretty good....are you saying that I'm playing too tight from the earlier positions and my VP$IP is around 24 only because I am too loose in the blinds, thus artificially increasing my VP$IP? Or is it that I'm just playing too tight for the limits I'm currently at?
I know that to increase my pfr I need to start raising with hands lilke 78s, Axs in earlier positions, etc but I'm finding that doing so at these limits isn't thining the field and I went on a bit of a downswing until I adjusted by playing tighter in all positions, bluffing less and value-betting more but I don't think it was enough hands for that to have had any effect on the stats.
I'm currently going through pokerstove to see where I can open up a bit more but am finding that I'm not comfortable raising with hands like A2o in UTG+1 (for example)....is this something I just have to get used to and learn to play?
Overall I thought my stats were looking ok, apart from PFR, so I am genuinly interested to hear suggestions on where to look at improving since I understand the "teach a man" philosophy you and others here seem to hold to but would also be nice to know if I'm on the right track with my thinking too
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I think your stats look pretty good and your BR is enough to move up. Hell, I'd play 10/20 with that BR!
At the lower limits, playing tighter preflop is ok I think for some of the reasons you mentioned, though 10% still seems pretty low. When you move up , you will definitely want to start increasing your pf raising range at least into the high teens because less people will be in each pot and the chance of winning the blinds outright increases.
A range like this for open-raising is my default:
UTG: 55+, A9+, KQ, A7s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s (14%)
UTG+1: 33+, A7+, KJ+, QJ, A4s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s (20%)
CO: 22+, A5+, K9+, QT+, A2s+, K5s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s+, 76s+ (26%)
Btn: 22+, A3+, K9+, Q9+, J9+, T8+, 98+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s+ (40%)
Having a wider range makes it harder for opponents to read your hand. They can't just assume you have overcards whenever the flop is 987.
Some of these hands I won't raise with if the players behind me are loose preflop but play decently postflop. If the blinds are tight preflop I will raise even more from LP.
Also, your WSD is a bit low at 33%, though that's probably because you are playing so many multiway pots. W$SD of 57% is great, but suggests you might be playing a bit too tight.
If you start calling down a few more hands in HU situations on the river and seeing if the pot odds justify the calls you're making you may be surprised at how many times opponents are just bluffing missed draws or outright junk and your A high or third pair or whatever is good.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Shit didn't notice it's limit. Man, you play tight.
Enjoy getting raked to death.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Looks pretty good offhand, although to me it seems you are running really, really well.
On the 2nd chart, it shows you are a winner with 1 pair hands. I don't think I have ever seen that in the green in anyone's graphs.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Shit didn't notice it's limit.
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Forget what forum you're in Fnord? heh.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Shit didn't notice it's limit.
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Forget what forum you're in Fnord? heh. |
Been checking for posts off the front page.
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Knytestorme
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
Looks pretty good offhand, although to me it seems you are running really, really well.
On the 2nd chart, it shows you are a winner with 1 pair hands. I don't think I have ever seen that in the green in anyone's graphs.
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I thought that too so I ran everything though PokerEV and got the following graphs which I read as running about where I should be, but I do admit I still don't totally understand this tool
Going off Fnord's comment regarding the rake, I have never worked out what that sort of comment means. If I'm showing a profit, then aren't I ahead really...what impact does the rake have other than dropping the bb/100 down a bit? And again, what sort of stats should I be looking at for 6-max given some say it looks good and others are saying it's too tight?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Short Handed LHE is a game of pushing small edges and not missing an edge. As the players get better you will find yourself having to play out more and more hands with little or no edge to avoid giving away a pretty big edge.
Profit = Edge - Rake
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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i cant believe DDog hasnt said to "take shots" at the next level w/o 300bb. the best advice i got was to play a range of limits, to find soft games, and carry about 150-300 bb for the highest level you play. reasoning: you wont often be playing at the highest end of your range.
if you are happy with your game, currently, take a shot for a few sessions and see how you feel after. you should know by now if you are playing well or if you are overmatched.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Knytestorme
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Short Handed LHE is a game of pushing small edges and not missing an edge. As the players get better you will find yourself having to play out more and more hands with little or no edge to avoid giving away a pretty big edge.
Profit = Edge - Rake
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I think I'll have to read this a few times to make sure I'm understanding what you're saying here but I have an idea of what you mean so thank you for that.
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Knytestorme
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
i cant believe DDog hasnt said to "take shots" at the next level w/o 300bb. the best advice i got was to play a range of limits, to find soft games, and carry about 150-300 bb for the highest level you play. reasoning: you wont often be playing at the highest end of your range.
if you are happy with your game, currently, take a shot for a few sessions and see how you feel after. you should know by now if you are playing well or if you are overmatched.
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hehehe, in his first post he said he'd be playing 10/20 with it which would be around 180bb 
I tried some 1/2 at FullTilt earlier and ended up about even over 200 hands apar from j-high flush running into nut flush and costing me around 8 bets. Don't think I felt outmatched as much as behind the 8-ball with no stats on anyone and thus not having any idea what some of their plays meant.
Guess I'll just have to knuckle down and make the move, seems the only way to make effective rakeback or bonus-whore lhe is playing at least 1/2.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Knytestorme
I think I'll have to read this a few times to make sure I'm understanding what you're saying here but I have an idea of what you mean so thank you for that.
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When you figure it out, I'll see you in the NLHE forum....
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Knytestorme
I think I'll have to read this a few times to make sure I'm understanding what you're saying here but I have an idea of what you mean so thank you for that.
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When you figure it out, I'll see you in the NLHE forum.... |
Fnord you used to have so much love for limit. What happened?
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
Fnord you used to have so much love for limit. What happened?
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Online - See Above
Live - NLHE is sooo much better when you can read souls
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
Fnord you used to have so much love for limit. What happened?
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Online - See Above
Live - NLHE is sooo much better when you can read souls |
I was just chatting to Chopper on msn the other day about that. Ideally I would like LHE to be my main online game, but I want so badly to learn NL cash for live play...
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Fnord, i get the "rake kills you" angle.
but, if everyone pays the same % of rake, barring rb, why do we care? the field is level. some win, most dont. when we move higher, i suppose games get tough enough we just keep passing money around, so we start playing live a lot more...if we continue playing.
true, thats boring, but doesnt rb make it a bit easier to take? NL games are shit, imo. but, i suck at poker, so...i guess its not the same thing.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
but, if everyone pays the same % of rake, barring rb, why do we care?
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See ya at the Blackjack tables.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Actually everything up to 3/6 is pretty soft, at least on PS. It's not hard to find four good games between 2/4 and 10/20. By 'good' I mean lots of people limping preflop, people calling the flop with air, calling down raises with garbage, etc.
I don't doubt it's easier to find fish in NL - there's just so many more games to choose from
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
Fnord you used to have so much love for limit. What happened?
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Online - See Above
Live - NLHE is sooo much better when you can read souls |
OK, so my question is... should I just start playing NLHE? I have a couple hundred dollars in my BR, so far doing OK in limit. Low level limit is fun because everyone is bad and you can nut peddle while stealing blinds once in a blue moon.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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nut peddling is NOT reading souls.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
nut peddling is NOT reading souls.
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well we're not even talking about live games at this point
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Knytestorme
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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Well thanks for all the opinions and advice.
I made the move up to 1/2 and promptly went on a 30BB slide, but given how swingy I usually am at lhe I'm not too concerned yet given it's only over about 1k hands and I haven't played much in the last week (damn omahahahaha)
Let's see how I do I guess, am hoping to be able to feel comfortable at 3/6 by the end of the year, though will have to move back to fulltilt for that since I have rakeback....if only UB/AP weren't the mess they are now, extra 3% rakeback would be cream.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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would you give me some details of AP's rb? and, why you say you have to go back to FTP for 3/6. is it volume?
i would think the bbj rapes you bad enough to make you play somewhere else regularly.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Knytestorme
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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AP/UB/Vegas rakeback are 30% compared to 27% for fulltilt, should be available from any rb spot still.
Meant I'll have to go back to fulltilt for my play now, as opposed to continuing to play at stars, mainly so I can have the rakeback as a buffer of sorts against losses while I learn the game and get stats at each level-up.
Yeah, the bbj at Ap I noticed was annoying, haven't actually played there since 2006 I think...I just have rakeback at there, ub, vegas, ftp, mansion, doyles, cake and pkr but haven't played at any apart from ftp in ages. I really should get round to at least whoring the sign-ups, though will avoid cake after your post
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pankfish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
Posts: 385
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3 bet more/call less
Full Tilt's rb is better than ub/ap's rake back. Full Tilt gives you 27% of dealt rake, UB/AP only gives you rake back for pots that you contribute to. Cake has the best rake back for americans that I know of.
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<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs
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