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kyc12
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09-29-2006, 04:49 AM
Post subject: 22 flop set - what do you think?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 89
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Sorry, Bodog so no converter, FR
Preflop:
Hero is UTG+1 with 22
Hero limp, MP2 limp, SB complete, BB check.
Flop: 26J rainbow (3.75SB)
SB check, BB check, Hero bet, MP2 call, SB fold, BB call
Turn: K (3.25BB)
BB bet, Hero call, MP2 raise, BB fold, Hero raise, MP2 cap
River: 7(11.75BB)
Hero Bet, BB raise, Hero raise, BB cap
Final pot: 19.75BB
I know preflop fold may be better than limp, how about the play on flop/turn/river? I think there are enough uncertainty that I am not sure that the line I took is correct.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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I like it.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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I think you're good here, Id put him on KJ before i put him on a set. However, I may just call the river raise, but hell, I'm a nit.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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Other than the big blind rising from the dead to raise the river, I think the chances are excellent villain has a better set. Once I bet the river into his turn cap, I doubt he`s raising on two pair... and since he likely would have raised preflop with JJ or KK, I`ll put him on pocket sevens.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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Other than the big blind rising from the dead to raise the river, I think the chances are excellent villain has a better set. Once I bet the river into his turn cap, I doubt he`s raising on two pair... and since he likely would have raised preflop with JJ or KK, I`ll put him on pocket sixes.
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NWNewell
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL
Posts: 283
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkitekton
Other than the big blind rising from the dead to raise the river...
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lol.... I noticed that too... I believe he means MP2
Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkitekton
Other I think the chances are excellent villain has a better set.
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I agree.... feels like a slowplay with his turn raise. And when he caps after you smooth call the BB and 3-bet after MP2 raises it, I'm real nearvous about 666.
He's not worried about the BB's exitement over the King, and he's not worried that you slowplayed the turn even after the King hit. So, what does that leave that he would cap with? Strong King (AK, KQ)? TwoPair? Trips? I would think he would raise preflop with a strong king, KJ (& KK, JJ), and fold K2, K6, J6, J2, 62. The only thing I can think of that makes sense here is 66. Now, that doesn't mean I'm folding because who know is if this guy plays sensable or not (plus I could be an idiot and something else may make more sense than I realize). He may have two pair or something, but I'm probably c/c'ing the river. 66 makes too much sense and I think we are behind often enough, the way this was played, to not have enough equity to add bets.
I don't have too much of a problem betting the river if MP2 is a terrible/wild player, but I'd definitely only calling a river raise.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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22 utg+1 is a fold unless the table is very loose passive.
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kyc12
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 89
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Great comments as usual.
Yes, 22 is a fold pf. But if you follow the "no set, no bet" strategy, it could not be a huge -EV move right? (And it's easy to do so if your pair is bottom pair no matter what the flop is). I won't call every time, only trying to justify myself here.....
I don't have a read on villian. I agree that the possible hands that he have are either 2pair or 66 (all other holdings are too unlikely), but I think he may play some of those Kx hand NWNewell described, esp if suited (after all, that's why I play there).
I do think I was too aggressive on river, but what will you do?
1) c/c
2) b/c
3) other??
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kyc12
Yes, 22 is a fold pf. But if you follow the "no set, no bet" strategy, it could not be a huge -EV move right?
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I think 22 is a fold pf b/c bottom set on the flop loses a lot of times, either to higher sets or to draws that you have no way of ever shaking in a LHE game.
ChezJ
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ChezJ
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kyc12
Yes, 22 is a fold pf. But if you follow the "no set, no bet" strategy, it could not be a huge -EV move right?
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I think 22 is a fold pf b/c bottom set on the flop loses a lot of times, either to higher sets or to draws that you have no way of ever shaking in a LHE game.
ChezJ |
depends on the table if i limp or fold... if i think i can limp and a bunch of people will play without a raise it's +EV... if i think a lot will fold and it's likely to get raised limping is probably -EV...
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ChezJ
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kyc12
Yes, 22 is a fold pf. But if you follow the "no set, no bet" strategy, it could not be a huge -EV move right?
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I think 22 is a fold pf b/c bottom set on the flop loses a lot of times, either to higher sets or to draws that you have no way of ever shaking in a LHE game.
ChezJ |
depends on the table if i limp or fold... if i think i can limp and a bunch of people will play without a raise it's +EV... if i think a lot will fold and it's likely to get raised limping is probably -EV... |
This is right on with Ed Miller's recommendations in SSH. 22 is not a hand you play EP with the 3-5 preflop table, but is limped EP using the 6-8 preflop table IF the table is also passive preflop. As for not being hugely -EV, there are no preflop plays that are hugely -EV depending on how you define huge, but this is limit poker, and your value comes from making slightly +EV plays over and over. Making a slightly -EV play preflop is very bad because you make so many preflop decisions that it adds up quickly. You might consider -0.1 BB a small error, but when you consider that you are doing well to be winning 0.1BB per hand even from late position, to lose .1 BB EV from EP is not slight, but actually a huge error relative to the expected value of playing a hand from EP in general.
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Well, 22 would be good to limp from EP if:
nobody raises preflop
tons of people limp
those aforementioned people get in a raising war postflop with ANYTHING good
but I bet you just posted this hand because it was set over set
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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I look at the hand again, and now I think it's 66, and is Bodog a 5bet cap or am I reading the turn wrong. More I look at it the more I c/c the river. But at the time I would prolly donk, get raised, and then call. Live I may be able to just call down the turn raise. I really dont think it is KK/JJ/77. Why do I have this suspiscion he limped AA? If you had any read on villain it would make it easier to put him on a range.
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kyc12
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 89
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Yup, none of us got his hand right.
He had KK.
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