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200 FR big flop vs good player deepish

  
 
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drmcboy
Old 09-14-2009, 10:25 PM     Post subject: 200 FR big flop vs good player deepish #1 (permalink)  
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 runs 30/13 over 1k hands or so, mix of FR and 6 max, more FR. He plays pretty good, kinda tricky, mostly tight but felts some iffy hands now and again for balance. In 6 max he's more aggro pre but FR he's like standard good pre. Nothing notable has happened today, I've been playing pretty tight.

I would usually not sit to his right in 6 max but FR it's not so bad. he just got the deep stack not long ago, I was leaving soon.

Comments on flop and turn? Esp turn, if you call turn do you call brick rivers? Also lead or check if we make the flush on river?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($250.15)
Hero (MP3) ($335.45)
CO ($344.35)
Button ($172.05)
SB ($194.70)
BB ($198)
UTG ($206.55)
UTG+1 ($77.80)
MP1 ($116.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, 9, 7, 5
3 folds, MP2 calls $2, Hero calls $2, CO calls $2, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($9) 8, 6, Q (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $6, CO raises to $24, 2 folds, Hero calls $18

Turn: ($57) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $50,


Hero ?
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TLR
Old 09-15-2009, 04:55 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think I would reraise the flop
Regarding the turn - what hands will he check-raise you on the flop with ? with 3 players to act after him I doubt he would check a flopped set, he is much more likely to C-R with hands like JT9 so your str8 is probably not good here


 
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drmcboy
Old 09-15-2009, 05:47 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 he acts after me
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TLR
Old 09-15-2009, 05:39 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Sorry, I confused MP2 and CO


 
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-21-2009, 10:03 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Well, let's play with setting some ranges for him...
Hands we are worried about on the turn are JTxx hands, obviously. JsTsxx will play this way for sure if he has any other outs to go along with the draw. Similarly, JTKsXs makes sense. Unless the remaining card is a Q (and wouldn't he normally raise a KQJTss hand), we have these hands in fairly bad shape on the flop, which would argue for a raise there, depending on how we fair against the rest of his range.

Other hands that a big flop raise makes sense for are sets. Certainly QQxx is a contender (again, moreso if his sidecards are decent). 88xx could be as well. I doubt we see 66xx very often though. Against these set hands we are frequently near flipping, and sometimes significantly behind. Clearly against these hands, calling and seeing the turn is the better play, and now we should be raising to charge him for a boat draw.

What other types of hands would you expect this line with? I think we can weight his range toward the JTxx hands, based on playability (since you said he was good) and on the math of it. In that case, a flop raise would probably have been better. Now that we're on the turn, however, just calling is more safe. We still have a number of chances for improvement and definitely still beat parts of his range.

What we do on the river depends on what we know/think about him. Will he bet the flush card if we check? Will he ever skip a bet when we check? Will he call a bet on a flush board holding a straight? Will he call a bet on a non-spade holding a set or two pair?
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davis13
Old 10-07-2009, 02:37 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Given that the worst possible equity you can have here is about 38 on the flop if my sim is correct then its a crime to not felt this hand regardless of who are you against given that you have the NFD. A few things are off such as the villain has a SF gut shot but this probably the worst possible match up for your hand and you are only still a 38/39 equity dog.

pokenum -o as 9c 7c 5s - 8d 8h ts 9s -- qs 8s 6d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Qs 8s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 5s 9c 7c 313 38.17 501 61.10 6 0.73 0.385
Ts 9s 8d 8h 501 61.10 313 38.17 6 0.73 0.615

Given that we made it to this turn, I am unsure what to do, I am never folding but just about every option gross, given you are more than 100 bbs deep, I would probably just call, bet spade rivers, c/c a blank, and fold to a paired river.
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drmcboy
Old 10-07-2009, 03:30 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 If I thought I could get it in on flop I would but if he calls the flop 3 bet we still are pretty deep. If the board pairs after we 3 bet flop do we give up? Also I would hate to fold a combo draw.
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