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2 b&m hands from yesterday

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pokerlearner

06-20-2005, 05:20 PM Post subject: 2 b&m hands from yesterday

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: california

Posts: 366

Hi guys,
Went to all 3 days at b&m this weekend and was pretty good. Here are 2 hands from yesterday. Please let me know if I played too chicken.

I know that a play is probably correct regardless of whether its online or b&m but i play a lot more passive in b&m (people are likely to show you a wide variety of hands chasing wide variety of draws

. insane number and variety of straights and flushes get made on these tables !!

1) I get AA on the button. I raise after 6 people have called. all 6 people call.
Flop: Q-Q-7. Checked to me, I bet, SB raises (check raised me

), everyone folds and I call.

Turn: Q-Q-7-x
SB checks, I check behind

reason: didnt want him to check raise me again. I have rarely seen anyone on these tables raise for information !!)

River: Q-Q-7-x-x

SB bets, I call.

SB shows 10-10.

I played this hand like a pussy didnt i !! Anytime the board pairs, almost 8-9 out of 10 times someone has that card to make trips. I just didnt want to fall for that especially after SB check raised me on flop. Should I have bet on turn after sb had checked ?? I have lost a lot of money pushing overpair against trips on a paired board. but here it was HU so maybe he didnt have the Q ??

Again, maybe in this specific case he had 10-10 but usually on a paired board if someone check raises you on tables where usually people play straight forward (and sometimes make sneaky check raises...) was it still correct play ??

2) AQs of spades in LP. 6 people call, I raise, everyone else calls.

Flop: A-K-10 (K and 10 are of hearts)
Checked to me, I bet, 4 people call.

Turn: A-K-10-x (completing the potential heart flush).
MP 1 bets, MP2 calls, I call.

River: A-K-10-x-x
MP 1 bets, MP2 calls, I call.

MP1 shows K-9 for pair of kings, MP2 shows A7. I win.

It was totally incorrect to just call two streets right. I shouldve raised and then folded if he reraised right ?? but what if he just called my raise and led out again ?? I figured, I was preflop raiser and since MP2 came alive after flush hit the board, he had it. He was a total fish and lost one rack while i was at the table. I thought he was playing straight forward. !!
But on other hand, If i really believed that he had the flush then i shouldnt have called cuz i didnt have any redraw. correct thinking ??

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Xanadu

06-20-2005, 06:59 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

In the first case, it is important to know the odds a Q is out there against you. This is 2x the probability of a single queen being out minus the probability both are out.

Probability one specific Q is out there(6 hands): 12/47=.255

Probability both are out:

(12!/2!(12-2)!)/(47!/2!(47-2!))=12*11/(47*46)=.061

Prob(at least one Q) = 2*0.255-.061= 0.449

But the true probability is higher as many will play any Q, so lets see what the probability is for a Q to be dealt to one of your 9 opponent:

P(one specific Q in 9 hands): 18/47= 0.383

P(both Q in 9 hands): 18*17/(47*46)= 0.142

P(at least one Q in 9 hands): 2(0.383)- 0.142= 0.624

So we see that in this situation, the probability of someone having the Q is somewhere between 45% and 62.4%.

So, in general, with no reads, you are in call down mode heads up with that many people seeing the flop. You were not a pussy. Especially when you add in the additional possibility of 77 being out there against you.

Without a good read, best to just play the odds in these situations. You can bet/raise more liberally with additional players in the pot ... a lot of people are going to call down with a 7, any pp, possibly even any A.

One more comment, it seems you over estimate the odds of someone having trips against you ... you said 8-9 out of 10 times ... even if everyone sees the pot it is only a little more than 6 out of 10 times.

pokerlearner

06-20-2005, 08:16 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: california

Posts: 366

thanks for your reply xanadu. I was not mathematical when i said 8-9 out of 10 times. Thanks for letting me know the correct odds. I was just talking from my memory and we all know how that works (always remembers the bad instances and forgets the good ones !!).

will keep that in mind.

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2 b&m hands from yesterday

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