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15k hand check-up at 2/4

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Chicago_Kid

03-16-2005, 06:29 AM Post subject: 15k hand check-up at 2/4

#1 (permalink)

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The following are my stats after 15k hands at 2/4. Interestingly, after 10k hands I was doing pretty well, and expected to continue to improve. However, the latest 5k hands have resulted in a spew-fest I don't wish on anyone at FTR. This has taken me right back down to breakeven...extremely frustrating.

I thought it might be good to get some feedback on my stats and see if there are any glaring issues that someone can identify for me. I'm at a loss at this point...is it possible to simply have a prolonged downstreak through 5k hands (to the tune of 150-200 BB)? Even after doing ok through 10k hands? Am I worried about nothing?

Typically, I play 3-4 tables at a time, but I've been trying 3 more often since the beginning of this 5k hand downward spiral.

http://chicagokid.bravehost.com/index.html

Any feedback is welcome...thanks.

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

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gabe

03-16-2005, 06:43 AM

#2 (permalink)

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gabe is an unknown quantity at this point

link is broken for me

Chicago_Kid

03-16-2005, 12:33 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Anyone know how to past images in the window?

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

Laeelin

03-16-2005, 01:24 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,137

if you email them to me i can post them.

{edited email - a500lbgorilla}

(remove the "NO" and "SPAM")

but i expect there are directions here somewhere, but i dont have the time to write directions right now =)

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

Chicago_Kid

03-16-2005, 08:50 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Laeelin

if you email them to me i can post them.

{Edited email - a500lbgorilla}

(remove the "NO" and "SPAM")

but i expect there are directions here somewhere, but i dont have the time to write directions right now =)

Thanks, Laelin. I went ahead and threw them on a website...should be viewable now. Feedback appreciated...

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

|~|ypermegachi

03-16-2005, 09:23 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

for the most part looks pretty solid. it just looks like a bad run of cards.

you could probably steal some more and WTSD go up 2 or 3%.

Chicago_Kid

03-18-2005, 04:20 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

for the most part looks pretty solid. it just looks like a bad run of cards.

you could probably steal some more and WTSD go up 2 or 3%.

Thanks, Hyper. I have started to think "nasty" in stealing situations, which I didn't previously do as much.

On the WTSD, is this also reflected in Fold to River Bet, at around 45%? Is this too high? Sometimes I get the feeling I should not fold, say, 2nd pair good kick against 2 players, if action is steady. But, I often do see the turn and fold the river. Perhaps weak/tight? These are so situational though...

Also, I did do some further analysis, and found I was regressing on EP&MP/marginal hand discipline (AT-A8, AJ, KQ, KJ, small pairs). Over the past 5k hands my VPIP crept up from 16.7% to almost 19+%. Dammit...time to refocus. I know most folks say pre-flop mistakes are minor in the grand scheme, but these types of hands seem to be dangerous for me. E.g., with AT in MP, if my raise is called by a "good" player, sometimes it's tough to know where I am...and I end up firing at them without much of a read, and getting called down to a passive AJ.

Anyone else have thoughts on these stats? If anyone is interested in seeing other PT views, I can post them...

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

RiverMonkey

03-18-2005, 05:34 PM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 446

Out of curiousity, if you followed SSH's loose-game starting hand tables religiously, does anyone know what would your VP$IP be?

Wow .... Good discipline Chicago!! 16.7 to 19% VP$IP. I wish I could say that I'm that tight pre-flop. (maybe not for $2/4, but you get my drift)

I only have about 9k hands in my PT DB so far. (I know that sample size is too small to make many conclusions.)

My VP$IP is hovering around 25-to-28%, and I'm at 1.6BB/100

I'm not happy with my BB/100; I know I can do better @ PP $2/4. Maybe I'm full of it, but I like to push myself. Then again, Hyper mentioned in another thread that you need about 1M hands to have a 95% confidence in your true win-rate. So, that could be used to say that I've been lucky to make 1.6BB/100 at my current VP$IP level. I'd prefer to assume that it implies my true win-rate is higher

(wow, this Monkey really is full of it ... cough cough)

I've been told my VPIP is too high; I'm still not convinced that I need to bring it down for PP$2/4. Maybe I'm naive, but I truely believe that the real-$$ is won with superior post-flop play.

If I was playing at higher limits it wouldn't be hard to convince me that I'd absolutely need to bring it down to the 18-20% range.

Rather than obsessing about my VP$IP, I'm focusing on other aspects of my game such as finding post-flop leaks, finding ways (e.g. using other players' play to help me) to build pots when I've got an edge, going for over-calls when it makes sense, hand protection, controlling cold-calling frequency etc. Chicago, I recommend you do the same .... Don't worry about your VP$IP being at 16 or 19% ... IMHO, working on these other things will give you more return on your investment of effort.

As always, I'm open to suggestions, comments, criticisms, and the odd insult or two!

Chicago_Kid

03-18-2005, 07:35 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RiverMonkey

Rather than obsessing about my VP$IP, I'm focusing on other aspects of my game such as finding post-flop leaks, finding ways (e.g. using other players' play to help me) to build pots when I've got an edge, going for over-calls when it makes sense, hand protection, controlling cold-calling frequency etc.

Monkey, I think this is good advice. It's very easy for beginners (like myself) to first look at the most straight-forward areas for leaks, namely pre-flop. The pareto majority here is definitely post-flop play.

I do think I need to work on pushing equity, building pots on the come, value betting turn and river streets, and protecting and controlling hands. I don't think my W$SD (53%) and W$WSF (33%) are way off (chime in if you disagree). Under that assumption, I'm starting to think it's not the pots I chase and/or lose that hurt my W/R, but the pots I win that are not often maximized . I'm starting to see extra bets I would have previously missed...which has got to be goodness. This has taken time though. I recently noticed this when I changed sites to clear a bonus, and stepped down a level. I decided to really look for every opportunity to bet/raise whenever I could. Variance increased a bit, but winnings went up, too.

As far as the cold-call leak, I almost NEVER do so pre-flop ('Limp/call to reraised preflop' is 1 in 15k, if this is the correct metric), so I think I'm good here. Post-flop I never do so w/o odds.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RiverMonkey

Out of curiousity, if you followed SSH's loose-game starting hand tables religiously, does anyone know what would your VP$IP be?

I think SSH players would actually be a wee bit LAGGIER, b/c Miller seems to focus on live, recreational games (like weekend games in Vegas) where the majority of players are there to have fun. He definitely encourages this "fun" approach too, while killing them softly. It's tough to take on this role playing 10-15% of hands!

As an example, I was playing with this guy at a local B&M casino, who seemed like the laidback partier guy; kinda scruffy by friendly. He was to my left, so I happened to be watching him closer than most. This guy introduced himself right when I sat down, shot the bull, and frequently mentioned that he was about ready to leave to go drinking with his buddies. He showed down crap laughing, seemed like an airhead at times and was a general fun guy to play with. In short, he didn't leave for 5 hours, was in a lot of flops (I remember b/c I was conscious of his growing stack), and he seemed to be throwing money around while always cracking up the table about his "lucky" wins; mainly the biggest, craziest pots of the night. The guy NEVER made a mistake that I saw and never got upset at suckouts at our very fishy table. Needless to say, he left with a huge stack...and I distinctly remember thinking "that guy is SSHE personified".

Alas, online is pretty different though, particularly if you are multi-tabling. In sum, I can see that 15-20 probably doesn't mean a heck of a lot, if you properly employ the post-flop tactics you listed above. I'll keep working at 'em...

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

RiverMonkey

03-18-2005, 07:50 PM

#10 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 446

I think it's kind of ironic that your location says "dodging monkey crap" and yet you can still see at least a small amount value in my response.

My wins online and at the B&M have gone up substantially since I started looking for opportunities to build pots when I have pot equity edge, and going for over-calls rather than just blindly raising when I have the best hand. CR'ing from EP to LP-aggressors to protect my hands is another one that's really helped my game.

Don't tell too many people about SSH (For fellow FTR'ers? No problem. But please don't ever mention it at my local B&M)

Chicago_Kid

03-18-2005, 08:15 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RiverMonkey

I think it's kind of ironic that your location says "dodging monkey crap" and yet you can still see at least a small amount value in my response.

Touche'...no offense meant I assure you.

"Dodging monkey crap" actually refers to small stakes maniacs whipping chips at you (defense mechanism). However, it's probably time for a new location...I'll noodle.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RiverMonkey

going for over-calls rather than just blindly raising when I have the best hand.

Forgive the ignorance, but can you provide an example of the "over-call"? Maybe a good one for me...

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

RiverMonkey

03-18-2005, 08:37 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 446

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chicago_Kid

Forgive the ignorance, but can you provide an example of the "over-call"? Maybe a good one for me...

SSH has a whole chapter on this, and I don't, for one second, think I can describe it better than them.

(If I remember correctly, there's also a whole chapter on situations when you should not go for over-calls)

That being said, here's an an example off the top of my head.

Pre-flop:
----------
No raises
Many limpers
I'm in early postion with a middy-pocket pair

Flop:
-----
I flop top set, and there's no flush or str8 draw on-board. Guy leads out in front of me with a bet. Rather than raising and knocking out everyone behind me, I just call (aka smooth-call). Everyone behind me calls too (those are the over-calls). Instead of making it HU or three way with a raise, I now have all this extra dead money being added to the pot .

Turn:
------
The EP-guy leads out again ...... If the turn card is 'safe' for me, I again just call hoping that everyone behind me will call, or better yet someone after me will raise cuz they just hit two pair or something similar. If I think just calling this LP-raise will get more callers behind me and I'm not vulnerable!! ..... again, why not just call instead of re-raise? You are getting more dead money in the pot right. (In practise, it's a little more complex than this because you have to look at the chances of getting sucked out on, chances that you'll get the other callers, etc. It may be best to re-raise and get more money in on the turn ... it really depends on the numbers, hands you put your opps on, how loose/clueless your opponents are etc. etc.)

River:
-------
Let's say you still have the best hand. Let's also say I just smooth called the turn raise and did get the over-calls I was hoping for. EP-guy now checks due to strength shown by LP guy. You can now go for a check-raise, or lead out and hope to be raised so you can re-raise. If it gets checked around cuz you tried for the CR that's bad. If you bet out and get raised and you get to re-raise that's obviously good. etc. etc.

Bottom line is that you made so much more money on this pot than you would of had you raised the flop bettor etc. Going for OVER-CALLS in the right situation will make you much more money in the long run than just simply & blindly raising when you have the best hand (q best-hand that's not vulnerable to draws or re-draws - this is a critical point!).

Chicago_Kid

03-18-2005, 08:45 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RiverMonkey

SSH has a whole chapter on this, and I don't, for one second, think I can describe it better than them.

As usual, you explained it very well.

So, (kid's mind spinning) intelligent slow-plays and selective aggression maximize winnings where pure aggression often do less than such...

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

Chicago_Kid

03-19-2005, 07:31 PM Post subject: Overcall example (flop)

#14 (permalink)

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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J

, A

.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, BB 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 3

, 8

, 2

(4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 8

(4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB folds, MP2 caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (21.50 BB) 6

(3 players)
SB bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 27.50 BB

Results in white below:
MP2 has 8d 7h (flush, eight high).
Hero has Jh Ah (flush, ace high).
SB has Kh 6c (flush, king high).
Outcome: Hero wins 27.50 BB.

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

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