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10-1 odds thin call? or fold?

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asdpikas

04-11-2009, 09:08 AM Post subject: 10-1 odds thin call? or fold?

#1 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2007

Posts: 1,056

villain is 36/18/2.6 over 500+ hands

3/6 Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($60.00)
Hero (CO) ($145.50)
BTN ($84.00)
SB ($146.00)
BB ($68.00)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 5 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, Hero raises, BTN calls, 1 fold, BB calls

Flop:

(6.5 SB, 3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BTN folds, BB calls

Turn:

(5.2 BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls

River:

(9.2 BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero ????

consider pot odds, should I call?

I mean, i only have to win one of these once in a while:

3/6 Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($182.00)
UTG+1 ($112.50)
CO ($55.50)
BTN ($72.00)
SB ($80.50)
Hero (BB) ($160.50)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 6 players) Hero is BB

2 folds, CO raises, BTN 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero 4-bets, CO calls, BTN calls

Flop:

(12.5 SB, 3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls, BTN calls

Turn:

(7.8 BB, 3 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, BTN folds, Hero calls

River:

(11.8 BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls

Final Pot: 13.8 BB
Hero shows:

CO shows:

Hero wins 13.2 BB ( won +7.8 BB )
CO lost 5.5 BB
BTN lost 2.5 BB

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DrivingDog

04-12-2009, 02:42 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Location: UK

Posts: 923

Hand 1) It's hard to see what we're beating besides a bluff. I also don't see why we bet the turn unless we think villian will habitually donk the flop with things like K9 or T9. I check behind on the turn and call the river. As played I think we can fold to the turn c/r.

Hand 2) Yeah villian looks like he's FOS. If he had anything on the flop he'd raise it there. 87 (Edit: I mean 76) is possible but so are a lot of spewy draws. Anything you're folding to on the river?

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

asdpikas

04-12-2009, 03:42 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

I think u're right... i fired the turn as a semibluff figuring i dont wanna give free cards to weak holdings/gutshots, and i have outs, but i probably should've checked behind. Without reads, it's hard to know what the hell he's with that line.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

Hand 2) Yeah villian looks like he's FOS. If he had anything on the flop he'd raise it there. 87 is possible but so are a lot of spewy draws. Anything you're folding to on the river?

Not much, maybe something like Ks

Chopper

04-13-2009, 07:13 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

one... i fold to the turn c/r. who cbets and check/bombs a scare card on a bluff?

two... sweet result, but i dont like firing into 3 players w/ AQ on this board. their calls and the turn raise scream JX or pp or even AK to me. i cant see AX here doing that to me.

but, i learned something....its possible. but, how likely?

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

04-13-2009, 07:26 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

Anything's possible. The problem I find is that the good limit players I play against sometimes get in the habit of rationalizing calls based on the one hand that they remember where they beat a bluff with it (or folded and the winner showed his bluff).

I really can't see calling hand one down. As someone said earlier in the thread, all we beat is a bluff, and we're not getting rid of the villain with aggression.

As I said in the "crying calls" thread, the crying call isn't a replacement for basic logic. If the villain's range is narrow enough (or there aren't any hands in it that you can beat), it doesn't matter that you are getting great pot odds. It's possible to get 12-1 pot odds and not, in fact, have even a 1 in 11 chance of winning the hand.

As for hand 2, you had a nice read. Just don't do this too often!

BennyLaRue

04-13-2009, 07:31 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

one... i fold to the turn c/r. who cbets and check/bombs a scare card on a bluff?

This. I don't think the crying-call-in-a-big-pot logic works here on the river considering the mistake made on the turn, unless you've got a locked down read.

DrivingDog

04-13-2009, 09:32 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

two... sweet result, but i dont like firing into 3 players w/ AQ on this board. their calls and the turn raise scream JX or pp or even AK to me. i cant see AX here doing that to me.

but, i learned something....its possible. but, how likely?

Villian calling the flop and raising the turn when he's sandwiched between two players smells a bit too much like he's trying to buy the pot and/or picked up a draw to make me want to fold.

Doesn't mean he always has one or even most of the time but if we're just calling down UI we only need to be right about 18% of the time. My guess is that we will win more often than that in this situation.

It's just so hard to put CO on any hand that beats us besides A2s, 76s, maybe 44. If he has any kind of hand besides a FD he should be raising the flop - 66-TT, QQ-AA (maybe 44 and 22), Jx and especially a set. When he has a made hand, CO wants to knock out Btn when his hand's vulnerable and wants to pump the pot when it's a monster to get max value out of any big hand Asd and/or Btn might have.

Slowplaying a monster in a huge pot that was capped preflop is just plain bad. Doesn't mean people won't do it but it does mean if they do they're just as likely to do other stupid things like call this flop with A6 and raise the turn when they pick up a draw.

I wouldn't have been surprised to see CO turn over a FD here. With all the draws out there I don't think there's any river card I could fold to. Maybe one that completes both draws like the 7s or 6s, but that's about it.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

KoRnholio

04-13-2009, 09:53 PM

#8 (permalink)

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KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

one- definitely fold to the turn CR without a solid read

two- This line definitely fits with a monster. A flop raise won't knock anyone out. By smooth calling the turn, Hero rates to fire again, at which time he can raise to knock out the button. I've played JJ-AA that way on that board many times. Especially if the Hero is aggressive and likely to fire again with subpar holdings.

Without the gutshot draw, I think we can safely dump this on the turn nearly always.

Also, why did you include results in hand 2?

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

DrivingDog

04-13-2009, 10:13 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

two- This line definitely fits with a monster. A flop raise won't knock anyone out. By smooth calling the turn, Hero rates to fire again, at which time he can raise to knock out the button. I've played JJ-AA that way on that board many times.

Sorry I don't follow this logic. You have an overpair or better and 'a flop raise won't knock anyone out but a turn raise will'. Why are you trying to knock people out on the turn when you can get them to put in more bets on the flop while you have a big equity advantage? The idea is to make more money not less

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

asdpikas

04-13-2009, 10:16 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

Also, why did you include results in hand 2?

I posted hand 2 purely as an example (had no trouble calling down). Hand 1, i didnt really know on the river. Also, I folded in hand 1, called in hand 2.

Does everyone auto fold to c/r in hand 1? I have 4-6 (clean) + 3 (very dirty) outs, and am getting 8.2-1

asdpikas

04-13-2009, 10:24 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

you would do that for protection against FDs. I just dont think a capped 3way pot needs any protection. With 4+ players in, i like waiting for the turn to raise, cause you let people stick around with overcards/weak draws, when they are drawing thin to dead, plus there are more chances you really face an FD.

BennyLaRue

04-13-2009, 10:27 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by asdpikas

Does everyone auto fold to c/r in hand 1? I have 4-6 (clean) + 3 (very dirty) outs, and am getting 8.2-1

What are the outs you think are clean?

asdpikas

04-13-2009, 10:32 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

Quote:

Originally Posted by asdpikas

Does everyone auto fold to c/r in hand 1? I have 4-6 (clean) + 3 (very dirty) outs, and am getting 8.2-1

What are the outs you think are clean?

4 Ks + 2 Js

BennyLaRue

04-13-2009, 11:14 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Posts: 646

Quote:

Originally Posted by asdpikas

Quote:

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

What are the outs you think are clean?

4 Ks + 2 Js

I don't think I'd count them all. With those stats, AJs and QJs are probably in his cold-calling range. The K might get you a split of the pot. You might have 5 or 6 outs total, including the dirty Ts. I think you're falling just short of a profitable call if you put him on a range like below. I guess it's close enough that a call isn't bad though.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

880 games 0.005 secs 176,000 games/sec

Board: Js 5h Qc Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.591% 10.45% 01.14% 92 10.00 { JdTs }
Hand 1: 88.409% 87.27% 01.14% 768 10.00 { AQs-ATs, KJs, QJs, AQo-AJo }

Chopper

04-14-2009, 12:06 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

Quote:

Originally Posted by asdpikas

Does everyone auto fold to c/r in hand 1?

i cant say its an autofold. but, w/o much of a read, i'm not willing to put any more dinero in the pot. i bet i fold 3/4 of the time here, tho, with what became 3rd pair.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

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