www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

10 - 1 on the flop, (Play overcards/runner,runner flush?)

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

noble007

07-27-2006, 12:40 PM Post subject: 10 - 1 on the flop, (Play overcards/runner,runner flush?)

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2006

Location: London

Posts: 531

.25/.50 tables (Loose, passive.)
Here's my Question Say you have Kc & Jc, you call in late position & 5 people see the flop...

The flop is Qh,3c, 9d.

There is a bet in first position & 3 more people call that raise.
So now there is about $2.50 in the pot,
at the moment you have nothing & it is an easy fold, but you are getting 10-1 odds to see if the next card could give you an 8 outer to a straight or a 9 outer to a near nut flush is it worth calling?

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

midas06

07-27-2006, 12:50 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 2,196

you also have the gutshot, which you only need 6.5-1 to peel on the flop

noble007

07-27-2006, 12:55 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2006

Location: London

Posts: 531

Oh yeah sorry, pretend the gutshot isn't there.

Say the flop was
Qh,3c,7d

I didn't take it from a real hand, just hypothetical.

thenonsequitur

07-27-2006, 02:57 PM Post subject: Re: 10 - 1 on the flop, (Play overcards/runner,runner flush?

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Location: Location

Posts: 637

You have 3-to-the-nut-straight, so your that's probably worth 1.5 outs. You have 3-to-a-disguised-flush, so that's another 1.5 outs. If you hit king making a split top pair, your hand may or may not be good, so discount the 3 kings to maybe 1.5 outs. See SSH's chapter on counting outs to see the theoretical basis for these estimates.

The rest is a standard odds calculation.

That's a total of 4.5 outs. With 47 cards to come, your odds are roughly 9.5:1.

Just compare that to the pot size to detemine if you should continue.

So if 5 people see an unraised flop, that's 5 bets preflop. Then a bet in first position and three callers is 4 more bets (and you're in last position, which is a bonus). So you have to put in 1 bet to win 9.

So you are getting 9:1 on your money on a 9.5:1 draw.

By these calculations this is a very close fold. But my estimate of 4.5 outs is rough anyway, and even half an out more makes this breakeven, so either way there isn't much equity difference between folding and calling. So implied odds should play a role. This is close enough that if you know your opponents will pay you off well when you hit (and the loose passives as you describe will), implied odds can justify a call.

elipsesjeff

07-27-2006, 03:15 PM

#5 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Northern Virginia

Posts: 4,900

elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

I don't like you to discount your Kings so much, as, if you hit you are likely to be good as a higher kicker would have raised preflop. Plus, I believe that the added value of getting paid off by another King if you were to hit negates any discounting you have to do. You also dont know if someone has the Q or not so your Jack might be good. With two runner runner draws and an overcard, I'll call one on the flop.

Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.

noble007

07-27-2006, 03:40 PM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2006

Location: London

Posts: 531

Cool thanks for the replies & the description of how to count those draws in terms of outs nonsequitur, also thanks elipsesjeff I am quite a newbie & have moved over to limit holdem from Nl25 as I hope there will be less variance & your article on this site about Limit was very helpful

thenonsequitur

07-27-2006, 09:45 PM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Location: Location

Posts: 637

Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I don't like you to discount your Kings so much.

For some reason I was discounting because of two-pair with Kx, but two-pair is clearly not very likely on this board. You're right. Not sure what I was thinking. Re-evaluating, I don't think I discount the kings at all. With 6 outs, this is a clear call on the flop.

Xanadu

07-27-2006, 10:34 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

All non-nut outs get discounted. 5-way, top pair is going to lose fairly often, however ragged the board. There was an UTG bet and 3 callers. Likely there are 2 or more pairs out there, all of which could hit their kicker or trips. Surely the Ks can't be worth more than 2 outs.

arkitekton

07-29-2006, 10:05 PM

#9 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

I agree w Xanadu--there's just no way in a 5-way pot you can count tke kings as a full three outs. The bet and 3 calls means it won't be unusual for me to be reverse-dominated. I'm also not counting the runner-runner straight draw as 1.5 outs. If an Ace comes on the turn and a bet gets raised, we're all folding the gutshot. The 2nd nut flush runner-runner draw is also hard to value at 1.5. It's not the nuts.

With the straight draw at something like 0.75, the flush draw at 1.25, and the kings at 1.5, this is an easy fold for me on the flop.

Xanadu

07-30-2006, 04:15 PM

#10 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

After a little further analysis, the back door straights and flushes are worth about 2.25 combined, and I give the kings about 1.5, so right at what arkitekton said. Further, 3 cards on the turn give us excellent draws. If the A, 9, or T of hearts fall, we have either 12 or 15 outs to the nuts or near nuts. If the players at the table are inclined to stay in to the river and call bets and raises, this is a fairly easy call for me to close the action with last position the last 2 rounds.

elipsesjeff

07-30-2006, 05:15 PM

#11 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Northern Virginia

Posts: 4,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by arkitekton

With the straight draw at something like 0.75, the flush draw at 1.25, and the kings at 1.5, this is an easy fold for me on the flop.

So you don't call the flop (or turn)getting 10-1 on a four outer????

Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.

arkitekton

07-31-2006, 06:38 AM

#12 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

I agree the position is good, but the draws and therefore the outs aren't straightforward. If the the turn brings such as Ad, Ah, As, 9d, 9h, 9s, it wouldn't surprise me in a 5 player turn if we get bet out of this pot with our gutshot. I also expect to have to put in two or more bets on other draws. If it was as straightforward as,

Quote:

So you don't call the flop (or turn)getting 10-1 on a four outer????

no, of course not--10 to 1 money on 10.75 or 10.5 to 1 card odds? Why would I???

On the hand under discussion, where the implied odds are not at all clear, where my outs aren't clean, where a solid percentage of my outs aren't to the nuts, where I have to consider that I'll catch a king and often lose (and with which I'll be giving reverse implied odds on the river), where I'm going to have to continue to pay to continue to draw, and where I'm going to be bet out of the pot on some of my draws, no--I'm not enamored of this hand. I'd fold it, but I don't consider it a big mistake to call with it, either--just a minor one. If I sit down with this hand for 20-30 minutes, really go into detail on most scenarios, make a bunch of educated guesses, and come to the conclusion that calling on the flop is actually a tiny +EV I have to admit I wouldn't be truly stunned--just surprised.

elipsesjeff

07-31-2006, 07:21 AM

#13 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Northern Virginia

Posts: 4,900

What odds do you need to have to draw to your 4 outer? Its not 10.75-1 BTW.

Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.

Xanadu

07-31-2006, 02:40 PM

#14 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

It's more than a tiny +EV, primarily because of your position and that the aggressor in the hand is in first position. The hand being 5-way helps tremendously as well. You could get paid off handsomely if you hit a big hand. And you will likely have all the information you need for a correct decision on the turn.

arkitekton

08-01-2006, 07:21 AM

#15 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

lol--okay, okay. When a bunch of smart guys think something's a good idea, it behooves me to look a little further. It's obvious some of the assumptions following can be debated. I've tried to stick to the conditions of my earlier post while leaning in favor of opposing argument where possible. As to other matters, I've assumed that about half the time we catch a draw on the turn, that the pot gets raised--a not unlikely occurrence with 5 players and some high cards on the board. I've also assumed that on our flush and straight draws two opponents are in for the turn and river, and that about half the time there's a river bet that gets raised that all three players call. I've also assumed that when we catch a King on the turn we never have to fold to a turn or river raise or 3 bet or cap, but to compensate, I haven't counted the times we stay for draws and catch a king on the river--win or lose.

Scenarios follow. Last of five players, we call the flop bet. Then, on the turn,

a King hits, there's a turn bet and a river bet which 3 players call. We win half the time= 1.5/47 * 17 small bets = +0.543 small bets

a King hits, there's a turn bet and a river bet which 3 players call. We lose half the time= 1.5/47 * 5 small bets = -0.160 small bets

6 clubs other than the A, T, or 9 hit on the turn.
a club hits on the river. We win 95% of the time. 0.95 * 6/47 * 8/46 * 21 small bets = +0.442 small bets
a club hits on the river. We lose 5% of the time. 0.05 * 6/47 * 8/46 * 5 small bets = - 0.006 small bets (though I suspect we're raising here and getting 3-bet, losing 7 small bets)
a non club hits on the river. We lose. Half the time the turn gets raised. 6/47 * 38/46 * 4 small bets = -0.422 small bets

the Tc hits on the turn. We catch a straight or flush on the river and win. 0.935 * 1/47 * 15/46 * 21 small bets = + 0.136 small bets
the Tc hits on the turn. We catch a straight or flush on the river and lose. 0.065 * 1/47 * 15/46 * 5 small bets = - 0.002 small bets
the Tc hits on the turn, nothing comes on the river. We lose. 1/47 * 31/46 * 4 small bets = -0.057 small bets

the Ac or 9c hits on the turn. We catch a straight or flush on the river and win. 2/47 * 12/46 * 21 small bets = +0.233 small bets
the Ac or 9c hits on the turn. We miss on the river. We lose. 2/47 * 34/46 * 4 small bets = -0.126 small bets

the Td, Th, or Ts hits on the turn. We catch a straight on the river and win. 0.92 * 3/47 * 8/46 * 21 small bets = +0.214 small bets
the Td, Th, or Ts hits on the turn. We catch a straight on the river and lose. 0.08 * 3/47 * 8/46 * 4 small bets = - 0.004 small bets
the Td, Th, or Ts hits on the turn, and we miss on the river. We lose. 3/47 * 38/46 * 4 small bets = -0.211 small bets

One of the six non-club Aces and 9 hits on the turn, giving us a gutshot. We get bet out of the pot forty percent of the time. We lose. 6/47 * 4/10 * 1 small bet = -0.051 small bets
We don't get bet out of the pot, but miss on the river. We lose. 6/47 * 6/10 * 4 small bets = -0.306 small bets
We don't get bet out of the pot, and fill the gutshot on the river. We win. 6/47 * 6/10 * 8/46 * 21 small bets = +0.280 small bets

The turn comes with something other than a club, an Ace, K, T, or 9. We lose. 26/47 * 1 small bet = - 0.553 small bets

The positive outcomes sum to 1.848 small bets
The negative outcomes sum to 1.898 small bets

To be frank, I think the idea that a pair of Kings will win this pot, what with 5 people staying for the turn, is a wildly optimistic assumption that some posters made--though I grant you get a little lift with, occasionally, three outs on the river. Winning with a pair of kings is a significant part of the positive EV on this hand. btw, I haven't double checked the math, nor have I done all the tweaking necessary so that a flush and straight aren't winning 1000% of the time, so caveat emptor. Interesting problem. I fold.

arkitekton

08-01-2006, 07:42 AM

#16 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: canada

Posts: 269

...make that "100% of the time."

Latest Poker News
KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 09:26 AM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

All Other (Limit) Poker

10 - 1 on the flop, (Play overcards/runner,runner flush?)

Play for FREE and practice your game at...