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$10 PLO DEEEP--->hit miracle turn; pot control?

  
 
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sk8r_daniel
Old 05-09-2010, 02:24 AM     Post subject: $10 PLO DEEEP--->hit miracle turn; pot control? #1 (permalink)  
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The opponent and I collected a bunch of chips (mostly mine) off someone chip dumping all in preflop. He has been playing fairly tight/passive preflop, but is making decent decisions post flop.

I know my flop bet is questionable, but I thought he would fold alot of aces and weak draws. The question is whether or not I should raise him now and risk being freerolled or just call and pot control and then c/r, or b/c safe rivers.

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BTN 11.68
SB 7.46
BB (HERO) 29.33
UTG 9.48
HJ 12.77
CO *villan* 28.64

HERO is dealt QcQh7h5c

CO calls, SB calls, Hero raises to .4, CO calls, SB calls

Flop is Ad4s8s

Hero bets 1.2, villain calls, SB folds.

Turn 6d

Hero bets 2.5, villain raises to 5. HERO ????
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drmcboy
Old 05-09-2010, 03:23 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 wow gross, spades seem better than Ds because I assume if he had a FD and a 57 he would have raised flop. If you think he might bluff the end folding can't be that bad because I think he more or less always has 75. tbh I have no idea what the best play is. If you call I think you should shove spade rivers, dunno what to do on Ds or board pair.

flop bet is OK HU but 3 way on this board OOP I just give it up. but I never fold Ax or weak draws IP!
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sk8r_daniel
Old 05-09-2010, 03:33 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Is it ok if I know he folds too much on the flop?
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drmcboy
Old 05-09-2010, 03:46 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 he both of them? I guess but it's pretty hard for two people to miss that flop
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swiggidy
Old 05-09-2010, 05:21 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 Preflop, I would check this instead of building a pot, especially OOP deep

Since this is 10PLO does he really only have 57? He's never min-raising with a middle set, or A8 trying to get a cheap showdown? Might even have dry 57 and be bad. I'd expect him to bet small if a scare card hits unless he has it.
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sk8r_daniel
Old 05-09-2010, 08:10 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Lets say he could have:

1. Bare Nut Straight
2. Straigh +flush draw
3. Straight + set
4. Set + flush draw
5. Bare set

Even against this range I don't really like reraising and committing so much money. The times he doesn't have it, surely he must be drawing with ~40% equity.
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drmcboy
Old 05-10-2010, 12:37 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 double suited I think checking pre is pretty eh, plus the deep guy might fold. not much point in making a set if the pot is that small and I don't really want to make many other hands unless I'm betting. that said I'm running 50/30 lately.

I'm def not the 10 plo expert but in general I do not expect people to get here with AA- very much and if they do I can't really see them raising this card. it's a min raise but it's also half a buy in with lots more behind. I'm basing reply on read given + stack sizes.
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bigspenda73
Old 05-10-2010, 02:47 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 I'd call, 100% bluff board pairs and probably bluff spades, c/f diamonds but expect them to go check-check a lot and lead bricks as well
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sk8r_daniel
Old 05-10-2010, 04:21 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73 View Post
I'd call, 100% bluff board pairs and probably bluff spades, c/f diamonds but expect them to go check-check a lot and lead bricks as well
Bluffing when the board pairs seems risky against opponents at 10nl, because they tend to overvalue sets and top two. This guy seemed better than most but its hard to tell what these guys are thinking. You just make money by playing good hands and betting them and stealing the odd pot here and there.

I' m still relatively new at Omaha so bear with me: I'm assuming bluffing when the board pairs works because smarter opponents at higher limits with a set (discounting AA) realize that I wouldn't be calling with worse in this spot. Because I would likely fold any 2 pair. The rest of my range that continues are big sets and straights. So he must have a straight or straight+combos if he is trying to get value.
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drmcboy
Old 05-10-2010, 04:59 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 I'm having trouble deciphering that, but bluffing board pairs works because he has 57. If he folds 4s full great but he doesn't have 44 unless it's 5744. I'd be stunned if he folds any other full but maybe he'll decide you have AA i guess.

betting the flop makes even less sense after your description of 10plo.

if you think there is a legit chance he does this with anything besides 57+ then just ship the turn, on one hand you're telling us it's a value town game and on the other hand you don't know what to do with the nuts when going all in is an option. you have 36% equity vs 5s7s** so it isn't like shipping vs that hand is a terrible mistake like folding the best hand on the river will be.

nothing wrong with getting up if you don't want to play 300BBs deep.
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sk8r_daniel
Old 05-10-2010, 05:08 AM #11 (permalink)  
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What i'm trying to say is that i think his range could be more than just 57. He is relatively passive but i'm definitely not ruling it out. Sorry for any confusion.

I am also trying to figure out what range good, high limit players have in this spot. Is it ever worse than the nuts?
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drmcboy
Old 05-10-2010, 05:21 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 Well there are a lot of PLO nits (2/4 and below) because unlike HE you can literally wait for the nuts and go from there, but sure good players/ crazy aggro dudes will raise lots of stuff here like a FD hoping you'll fold a set now or (much more likely given min raise) OTR.

If he can have less than 57 move in, I guess I don't get it. Doesn't seem like you think he'll bluff the river so I don't see much point in just calling and then guessing.

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run some numbers on the range you posted above.
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swiggidy
Old 05-12-2010, 02:53 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 When the board pairs in the micros against an opponent who appears to be breathing bluffing works because they go "zomg he has a boat". There are so few players who even attempt to hand read you can use lines that make no sense just because they won't call down.

I wouldn't fret too much about the range of high limit players. For one their villains range is different. And for 2 I don't think min-raising this turn is ever good (maybe if he had exactly AsAd7s5d) so a high stakes player isn't taking this line.
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