Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Nu Zuland bru
Posts: 939
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So, long story short I decided to put poker on the back-burner for a bit, but somehow that translated into playing the same amount of hours and dropping all study. I'm not happy with that, so I'm back trying to bring my study lay ratio up to 1:1, even if it comes at the cost of volume. First step along that path is bringing back my daily hand review, posting at least one hand in here per day and if it's interesting then posting it in the BC as well.
Villain is 16/12, I have one note on him:
checks AK oop on KhJc3c flop, bets 2/3 pot on 9c turn (w/ Ac), checks Qd river.
$0.05/$0.10 Ante $0.02 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($15.44)
CO ($16.11)
Hero ($27.26)
SB ($11.99)
BB ($10.22)
Pre-Flop: ($0.25, 5 players) Hero is BTN  
UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds
Flop:    ($0.85, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn:  ($0.85, 2 players)
UTG bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75
River:  ($2.35, 2 players)
UTG bets $2, $2 to Hero ($26.21)?
Preflop: Villain has 30% ATS, so I think he's positionally aware and his UTG raising range is really tight, probably something like {55+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs}, so I'm not sure if I can really profitably call here, even with position, would be interested to hear people's views.
Flop: Villain checks. I have seen him cbet before, once, and given my note on him I'm tending to think his cbets are primarily bluffs. The only thing in his range that's air is KQs, so I think his range here is something like {55+, AQo+, AJs+}, and I don't think he'd call his missed mid-pocket pairs, so I check behind.
Turn: Just like in my note, he leads out here on the turn, and I think it's solely for value. I now think his range is {55, 77, 99, KK, AJs+, AQo+} I think once the flop's checked through it's not unreasonable for him to bet out JJ-KK, but given how cautious he was in my note, I'm only putting KK there, to give those hands less weight. I have 39% equity, need about 32%, so I can profitably call.
River: Here he bets out pot again. He doesn't have any flushes in his range (maybe one combo of KsQs, but I don't think he bets turn with that), and given how cautious he was in the previous hand it seems unlikely he's betting anything less than a flush so largely here, which leaves us with bluffs and boats. There's nothing in his range he can be bluffing with, so I have to believe his range for betting here is like {55,77,99,AA}, making this an easy fold.
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