4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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I think he very rarely has a set taking this passive of a line on this board. Unless you've seen him slowplay in awful situations before, I'd be inclined to weight his range quite heavily towards 99 + JJ.
Given that there are 2 combos of flush draws in his range and 12 combos of 99-JJ, I'd always want to be betting this river for value because where I think you're mistaken is in assuming he'll value bet JJ on the end here. Most people wont imo having taken this line, thinish value is likely not something that crosses his mind and I'd not be surpised to see him jus snap check back JJ.
You're liking c/c because you think 2 extra combos might bluff AcKc and AcQc. There's 6 combos of 99 here that will probably call a gayish $7.50 bet but check back 100% of the time. There's 6 combos of JJ that will defo call this bet and check back like 70% of the time (I'd say this is a fair assumption.) Also, this guy's 22/20 he's probably opening JTs/T9s and may well call a 3-bet with these to mine vs BU, especially after you've overcalled and his price is better. These weak top pairs will snap $7.50 and check back for sure if you go for a c/c.
So yeah I'd reconsider your river line imo. I think the rest of the hand is good.
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