Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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Lucky for me, M2M knows how to get me to do work. So long as i dont have to search my database to find a hand i can do the maths. Thx m2m
Flop 3bet, we're risking 30 to win 7.5+5+14=26.5 when he folds, and risking 30+ to win 26.5+21=47.5+ when he doesnt.
Im gonna split it up into two things. 1st assuming we have 0 equity
taking b/b+p we need him to fold 53% of the time.
Assuming some stuff about btn, id say he can really only be raising with flush draws, 22, 77, and maybe AJ...maaaaaybe. Thats 6 for sets, 9 for AJ (discounted to like 4) and lets say 10 combos of straight draws. Then he just needs to be bluffing with 22 combos for us to be making a b/e play WITHOUT any equity. If he only bluffs with A2 (9) and say 98 (16) and always folds then we're good.
However, against his flushy draws, we have a good deal of equity so we probably dont even need him to fold as much as that to be ok.
Lets say we actually have 4% equity (cuz villain haz 22), lets also assume we shoved all in for 35 instead and that villain still folds that 53% of the time.
Then we have an expected value of $1.57. Of course we're done with the hand when villain does anything but fold...but its cool anyway!
2nd part: we actually bet like 32
7.5+5+14=26.5 still, so assuming 0% equity (shown to be false) we need him to fold about 50% of the time. Thats def significant, and means he probably only needs to be b/fing A2 and like 76(no diamond) or something.
What ive learned here
-if u can bruff smaller without changing nothing, do it (ldo)
-we probably still have equity against a guy's continuing range, so if we find we're breakeven assuming 0% equity then our breakeven play is actually +EV
-i should 3b bruff flops more against ppl that fold to much
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