Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 885
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fjuanl
First of all, you did a good job explaining how a turn shove doesn't fold out better.
Out of the hands you listed that we beat, how many want to bet for value on this turn? KK, QQ, KJ, QJ all hate that turn card. He has position and can check behind and hope to showdown cheaply. So when he bets the turn, his range is made up of a) AQ, AK, 2pair, sets and b) bluffs. To figure out how many bluffing hands he can have, first decide on what hands make a 4x raise UTG+2
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Well. Taking into account blind level and perceived tightness of villain, I think a pf range of AT+, KQs, and 88+ seems appropriate...?
You're definitely right about the KK, QQ, KJ, QJ bit given position and the transparency of villain falsely representing an Ace given action on previous betting rounds. They'd likely prefer to check behind. The latter two hands, while they may make sense for flop purposes, don't fit in the range I just outlined, so we can eliminate them. Q9 and 89 are highly speculative hands and may have made sense if he had different position preflop, but he didn't, so we eliminate them too.
Unless I totally botched the pf analysis, this does not really leave him with much to bluff with. 99 or 88? I can't see these hands calling hero's raise on the flop. Come to think of it I can't see em betting out 1/3rd the pot behind; he'd have given us good odds to draw even to a gutter... I must say you've got me rather pensive. Is villain bluffing here ever?
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