4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
Posts: 2,524
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3-bet bluff-
weaktight | Hand Poll | KTo - $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem - Hero 3bets to 45 cents PF.
9/5/9 over 483 hands 26% ATS, 100% fold to 3bet (2 hand sample).
Villains range for opening in the CO is something like: { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } which is 338 combos. (Taking blockers into consideration obv.)
He's continuing OOP to a 3bet with: {AQo+, 99+, KQs, } which is 61 combos.
.45/(.45+.30) = 60% of the time he needs to fold for this 3bet bluff to be breakeven.
He continues with 61 out of 338 starting hand combinations, so he's folding 277 combos.
277/338 = 82% of the time, making this a very profitable 3bet bluff.
C-bet bluff-
weaktight | Hand Poll | KQs - $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
Villain is 13/7/4 over 234 hands. His VPIP for MP is 13% his PFR is 10%. Fold to c-bet is 71% over 7 samples, hasn't 3bet yet in 54 spots.
Villain appears to be a weak/tight TAG/nit that plays pretty straightforward pre and post flop. Considering his ATS is 26%, I can assume he is at least somewhat positionally aware. Considering this we can discount a lot of stronger hands like AQ+, KQ, TT+ from his limping range, especially with a limper in front of him.
For his limp/calling range PF I'll give him {22-99, TJ, QT-QJ, KT-KJ, AT-AJ, 89s-T9s} for a total of 152 combos.
On this flop he's probably not donking anything.
He's probably continuing one street with: {55-99, AT-AJ, 89s} for a total of 51 combos.
I'm risking .45 to win .72 so, .45/(.45+.72) = 38% of the time he needs to fold for this c-bet to be breakeven.
He's continuing with 51 combos out of 152 starting combinations, so he's folding 101 combos.
101/152 = 66% he's folding to a c-bet making this an extremely profitable c-bet bluff.
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