Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Nu Zuland bru
Posts: 939
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$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG WACKWACKWACK ($30.85)
UTG+1 Burke676 ($14.35)
CO Hero ($10)
BTN vacantdream ($9.70)
SB colorwarrior ($4.95)
BB JusteBelmont ($14.30)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is CO  
1 fold, Burke676 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, 3 folds, Burke676 calls $0.40
Flop:    ($1.15, 2 players)
Burke676 checks, Hero bets $0.70, Burke676 calls $0.70
Turn:  ($2.55, 2 players)
Burke676 checks, Hero bets $1.80, Burke676 calls $1.80
River:  ($6.15, 2 players)
Burke676 bets $0.40, $0.4 to Hero ($7)?
Villain is 22/2
Preflop: I think villain's limp calling range is: {22+, A2s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QTs, QJo, JT, 54s+ }
Flop: Flop I fire out a cbet, it needs to be right 70/185 = 38% of the time to be profitable.
Hands combos in villain's range: 63+33+31+10+21+3+9+9+21 = 200
He continues with {77, TT, JJ, QQ+, AT-AJ, A7s, KTs+, KJo+, QTs+, QJo, JT, 76s+} = 119 combos
So he's folding 40% of the time making this just profitable as a cbet bluff.
Turn: The turn comes an overcard to the board and gives me a gutshot, so I decide to double barrel. This being the point of analysing the hand, to see if that's terribad or okay.
He has 119 combos in his range at the moment, and I need him to fold 180/435 = 41% of the time for this to be profitable.
Basically it seems like this card has given a whole bunch of his range either two pair or pair+straight draw, and so I don't think I'm getting anywhere near as many folds as I thought i was- certainly not 41%. So this is a pretty rubbish bluff.
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