Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Nu Zuland bru
Posts: 939
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tyty, I'm trying to get gogogogogoing
Today's hand:
$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG Hero ($6.04)
UTG+1 gzuy1960 ($2.06)
CO BigShades ($19.30)
BTN pazurzasty ($2.99)
SB freezerman14 ($2.18)
BB lvtxn2 ($6.90)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG  
Hero raises to $0.20, gzuy1960 calls $0.20, 3 folds, lvtxn2 calls $0.15
Flop:    ($0.62, 3 players)
lvtxn2 bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, gzuy1960 folds
Turn:  ($1.12, 2 players)
lvtxn2 bets $0.65, Hero raises to $2.30, lvtxn2 goes all-in $6.45, $3.29 to Hero ($3.29)?
Villain is 56/37 over 40ish hands.
Preflop: His calling range from the big blind is wide as a wide thing: {A2+, K5+, K7o+, Q7s+, Q8o+, J8s+, J9o+, 22+, 32s+, 54o+, 75s+}
Flop: On the flop he leads with queens and maybe flush draws, so: {AQ, KQ, Q7s+, Q8o+, suited clubs, 22, 77, QQ, KK+}.
Turn: On the turn he continues betting, I think with the same range as the flop. I've picked up an open-ender to go with my flush draw, so I go for a raise expecting to fold out his draws and his weaker queens. Say his calling range is {22, 77, QQ, KK+, 87cc, Q7s, QT+, KQ, AQ} then that means he's folding 39% of his range to my raise.
I'm risking 2.3 to win 1.72, so I need him to fold 2.3/4.02 = 57% of his range for this to work as a pure bluff. However I have 31% equity against his continuing range, so ...
0.39 * 1.72 = 0.67
0.61 * 0.31 * 3.42 = 0.65
0.61 * 0.69 * -2.3 = -0.97
Meaning even if I get no extra bets on the end, the semibluff has a profit of 0.35. Whoop whoop.
He shoves over, rather than folding or calling. It doesn't really matter if I say he's doing this with his one pair hands, or only his sets, I still have about 30% equity as I need to hit my flush or my straight. That's 2.33 : 1 needed, and with the pot at $9 and my call at $3.29 I'm getting 2.7 : 1, so it's a call.
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