Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,439
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In continuance with my analysis of bluffing hands, here's a hand where I pulled a [most likely] slightly -EV preflop move and made up for it knowing the +EV flop situation I put myself in would make up for preflop.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer
BB ($25)
UTG ($25.35)
MP ($41.11) - Villain is standard weak/tight fish. I've seen know aggression for him and he basically plays fit/fold postflop.
Hero (Button) ($28.36)
SB ($35.58)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 5 , 7
1 fold, MP bets $1, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP calls $2
I like to three-bet bluff a small amount of the time with suited one-gappers on the button. I figured villain may fold this preflop, but if he calls, I still have a pretty +EV situation postflop. Knowing this, I chose to three-bet him and take the pot on the flop with a cbet if he were to call. For this move to be immediately +EV,
Flop: ($6.35) 9 , 9 , Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $4, 1 fold
So the flop is a bit more coordinated than I wish it were. However, I choose to go on as planned and cbet. Villain would need to fold 38.6% of the time for this to be profitable. My plan on the turn, if villain were to call this bet, is a check/fold.
I actually wish Flopzilla remained free so I can use it to check how villain's range actually hit this flop...meh...back to paper & pen, I guess.
Total pot: $6.35 | Rake: $0.31
Results:
Hero didn't show 5, 7 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $6.04
This is a standard example of making a slightly -EV bet during one street to set up a +++EV situation on a future street. Thanks to the coaching I'm currently getting, I am beginning to understand this conceptually. Hopefully I can continue to put this concept into practice.
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