4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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I think lots of times with one pair hands people take one off on the flop in semi bloated pots like this. When the turn comes more or less a blank (a 6 really only helps 87), then they start to hit the gas to protect their hand against overcards and such.
I can see merit in just calling the turn, the pot is big enough that any OESD or flush draw is calling.
I think what makes it a tough spot is that all those players behind us probably have pretty lukewarm hands like gutshots+1 overcard or a pair (5 outs). If we just call, we may encourage them to school, getting 7,8,9:1 odds, thus getting almost the right price to call. Possibly even +EV with a river bet or 2 going in on the river.
Raising will mostly force them out (though I've seen stupider calls for 3 bets cold in live games), essentially forcing them to play (fold) correctly, getting only 5-6:1.
River I think is an easy bet against these two. I just can't see either one checking a flush, or a very unlikely straight, there.
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