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Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,461
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Originally Posted by Belt
No, I only want to put more money in while I have lots of equity in the pot but I don't mind if he shoves over either. And I want to raise this because I beleive this is the most profitable way. Why would I play the hand this way if I can see a more profitable way to play it?
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It's not the most profitable play. You have about 50% equity. which means you win the pot 50% of the time, and your opponent wins the pot 50% of the time. This makes it neutral EV (unless I'm missing something here). This alone should make it clear that calling is way more profitably then raising assuming he's felting his whole range on the flop (QQ+,AK).
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I beleive that it will be very hard to get the money in if I hit on the turn when I flat call this flop...
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Why? His range is very strong, it's a 3bet pot, and if you hit the turn it's not like he's getting away from his hand. He's also a huge fish, what makes you think he's not going to pay you off?
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Shoving AK would have been profitable on his part, you are saying I guess. I beleive that it depends on the range he puts me on...
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I'm saying once you raise the flop, if AK folds vs your particular hand, that's a mistake and you gain. (This is according to the fundamental theorem of poker). So this would make your flop raise slightly +EV if we can fold AK, but calling is superior because we can get him to fold AK on the turn assuming he doesn't double barrel it.
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As I said a couple of times before, I have seen my mistake and I am convinced that calling the turn is much better then a shove. What I'm advocating here is the flop raise...
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I think there's enough explanation in this thread to show you why raising the flop is sub-optimal.
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