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Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,371
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Belt
I put him on QQ+, AK after that 3bet, I can't see him defending a wide range here. He plays aggro post so I decided I have enough implied odds and called...
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So you want to get all in as a coinflip according to your range when you could play this hand much more profitably another way, interesting.
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I decided that a raise must make him fold all his AK exept AKss. So a raise must give me 15/34 (~45%) fold equity and if get called I still have lots of pot equity. I thought any sizing less then 3x may seem weak and may encourage him to shove over and anything more seemed useless.
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Here you say you think you can fold out AK but want AK to shove over you. With the amount of money in the pot I believe AK would be correct to shove after you raise rather than fold, but tbh I didn't even bother doing the math on this so maybe you can. Here is the PokerStove output:
Board: Jd 4s Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.091% 43.09% 00.00% 6399 0.00 { AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AKo }
Hand 1: 56.909% 56.91% 00.00% 8451 0.00 { 9s8s }
Quote:
After getting called on the flop now I can only put him on QQ+, AKss. This turn card is good for me after the flop aggression. He must put me on 98ss, KQss, TT-QQ and maybe QJss,KJss,AJss. And this range must weigh through TT,JJ I guess. So a raise must fold out QQ and AKss. AA,KK may call hoping me to hold QQ. On the other hand AA and KK seemed less likely to me at this point since he would shove over the flop with them most of the time but I can't totally discount them from his range anyway. Which meens 7/19 (~35%) fold equity and I still have nearly 30% of equity in the pot if got called. Also his weak bet gave me some courage to calculate that much fold equity while he is getting million to 1 odds to call...[/color]
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He's not even putting you on a hand, you are never folding out any of his range on this turn, ever. Trying to push people off overpairs in a raised pot is one thing by trying to do it in a 3bet pot is absolute spew. If you wanna jam turn it should be at least some sort of scare card for him and not just a blank that changes nothing in regards to board texture (he called flop so he likes his hand, the turn isn't changing that). However, he lead into you again after you raised flop i.e. repping massive strength, he wants the chips in the middle - you have 0 fold equity.
Here is why calling is better:
You can take the pot away on the turn when he cbets his air/(AK or w/e) and gives up. When he as a real hand that he isnt folding on the flop, we have tons of outs to improve and we can for sure count on being paid off and anytime he has a hand he's willing to showdown he's almost certianly going to play for stacks.
I dunno if I explained it well, but vs a fish this is just a pretty intuitive call because our implied odds are great and these guys typically cbet/give up with their air so we'll fold it out on the turn if checked to. As i said before we don't need to balance our range for raising the flop vs a fish. raise your nut hands, call your medium strength ones, fold your air.
98s is a medium strength hand in this spot relative to villains range and the board texture - call.
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