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Belt
Old 11-25-2009, 02:42 AM #16 (permalink)  
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3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Istanbul
Posts: 95
Belt
I get everything that said about the turn but c'mon, how may calling be more profitable than raising by the flop???? I think flop must definitely be raised.

By the flop;

If we flat ->
3.70 * 0.52 = 1.92 - 1.10 = 0.82 (EV = 0.82)

If we raise to 3.40 and he calls with all his range (unlikely I think)->
8.30 * 0.52 = 4.31 - 3.40 = 0.91 (EV = 0.91)

If we raise to 3.40, he folds all AK except AsKs and calls with all the rest ->
2.60 * 0.44 = 1.14
8.30 * 0.49 = 4.06 - 3.40 = 0.66 * 0.56 = 0.37
1.14 + 0.37 = 1.51 (EV = 1.51)

If we raise to 3.40, he folds all AK except AsKs, calls with QQ, shoves with the rest and we call ->
2.60 * 0.44 = 1.14
8.30 * 0.47 = 3.90 - 3.40 = 0.50 * 0.175 = 0.09
23.06 * 0.50 = 11.53 - 10.78 = 0.75 * 0.385 = 0.29
1.14 + 0.09 + 0.29 = 1.52 (EV = 1.52)


One more thing. Balancing may not be as important as it is at higher stakes. But completely disregarding it because this is 10NL doesn't seem right...
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