4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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OK let me put it this way. Our EV for getting it in on the flop is like +$1. I think we can do better by calling. Just as a really simplified example, we will hit a spade or a 7 25% of the time on the turn. If we average winning $4 over the times we hit the turn and just fold when we miss we've done better than if we got it in on the flop. If we also play the turn in a +EV way when we miss we only add value to this.
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We stand to have our best equity vs him on the flop.
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That doesnt make sense. Our equity now is 52%. That means our average equity on the turn is 52%, and our average equity on the river is 52%. We stand to sometimes have lower equity on the turn, but we will control the pot and not put a tonne of money in in that case (and sometimes see a free river card). We will sometimes have him drawing almost dead on the turn and then we will control the pot and ensure that a lot of money goes in when we are significantly better than a coinflip.
You dont beat loose/passive/bad players by getting the best of them in a bunch of coinflips. You beat them by using your position and their tendancy to call a lot (and not raise or fold) to control when the money goes in and to ensure that its when you have a significant equity edge. We dont have that here. We stand a good chance of having it on the turn. Vote for Call!
Out of position where our ability to control is massively reduced, Id be far more inclined to just get it in and see what happens. Likewise, against a tighter more aggressive player who actually has a folding range here Id be more inclined to get it in on the flop, but in this case Im still hoping he folds and I get to take the $2 or so thats already there.
edit: Although now you know hes capable of putting in almost all his stack and then folding that changes things...
I wouldnt expect that fold from many players at all though.
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