3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Istanbul
Posts: 95
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by surviva316
we're playing against a station.
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Actually, I don't agree with that. As I wrote above, the villain was fairly aggressive post flop. But,
Quote:
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Originally Posted by surviva316
what is he ever folding to your 1/3 PSB shove?!?!?!
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This is the exect same question I asked to myself right after the hand. How can I expact any fold equity while villain only needs ~20% equity to call?
While in the hand I was talking to myself something like "From villains point of view it must be very very hard to call the turn with AsKs because in addition to QQ he must throw some suited spades combos in my range to be break even. And its very hard for him to do so because he is the one who is holding both As and Ks... And with QQ he only breaks even as well."
But probably I was overthinking as Pelion said. And this
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Turn is really bad; think of it this way:
1. Shoving turn = a loss of $7.38 when we miss and a profit of $7.38 when
we hit.
2. Calling turn = a loss of $3 when we miss and a profit of $7.38 when we hit.
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gives a clear picture.
QQ+ is 18 combos and AsKs is 1 combo, so
When we bet all-in for 7.38;
He folds 1/19 = ~5% of the time... 18.68 * 0.05 = ~0.93
When he calls we have ~30% of equity agaist QQ+ (Happens 95% of the time)... 23.06 * 0.30 = ~6.92 * 0.95 = ~6.57
Since we invest 7.38 our EV must be 6.57 + 0.93 - 7.38 = 0.12
If we flat for 3;
We have ~30% of equity against QQ+,AsKs... 14.30 * 0.30 = 4.29
We invest 3 for calling. Our EV must be 4.29 - 3 = 1.29
Flatting seems to be the better play if he calls us with QQ but if he folds them then...
When we bet all-in for 7.38;
He folds 7/19 = ~35% of the time... 18.68 * 0.35 = ~6.54
When he calls we have ~30% of equity agaist KK+... 23.06 * 0.30 = ~6.92 * 0.65 = ~4.50
Since we invest 7.38 our EV must be 6.54 + 4.50 - 7.38 = 3.66
(Those equities I used above are rounded. I didn't stove them for verification. But they must be very close to exect numbers)
Actually he folded... But that was probably the tiny AsKs part of his range and I was lucky. I'm convinced that expecting him to fold his QQ is too optimistic and clearly flatting is the best play on the turn...
Thanks for the replies.
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