4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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claiming that this flop is amazing for us is just silly. sure, we are almost 100% to have the best hand but we are very close to 0% to get 3 streets of solid value since we raised UTG and it is a multiway pot vs at least one very good player.
as for the actual analysis it seems the most important question is this: is it more likely that thousandair would actually overcall out of position pre 150bb deep with kk/aa, or to represent that he did such a thing as a bluff? id say the former is 100 times more likely. So now you just have to decide whether he'd overbet jam AK on the river, and I personally think he's a much better player than that...
oh i forgot to mention JTdd. He can definitely have that. its only 1 combo though and i think hed lead it and check call it a lot on the flop
basically on river he's overbetting into a very strong range on the river while barely representing anything, which is generally an indication that one either has the nuts somehow, or has an absolutely sick amount of respect for the other player's abilities and is going very far out of his way to exploit him
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