Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 536
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Is there any history here? Like have you called 2 streets with middle pair? Someone who decided to call 2 streets with 98s or JJ-99 or AT or worse because of his high barreling tendency is definitely folding this river. It's just such a great river to 3-barrel. Here's a range that I think could feasibly raise preflop and bet all 3 streets:
Code:
Board: Ac 8d 7d 5c 2d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.535% 61.63% 02.91% 53 2.50 { AA, 88-55, AJs+, AdTd, Ad9d, A8s-A7s, Ad6d, A5s, Ad4d, Ad3d, A2s, KcQc, KdQd, KcJc, KdJd, KcTc, KdTd, Kc9c, Kd9d, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QdTd, Qc9c, Qd9d, Qc8c, JcTc, JdTd, Jc9c, Jd9d, Jc8c, T9s, Tc8c, 9c8c, 97s, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 35.465% 32.56% 02.91% 28 2.50 { AsJc }
That's pretty much a minimally-sensible range, and we have enough equity to call. Considering that he's barreling 100% so far, he could even be a little bit wider. And is he even good enough to value bet AQ this big on the river? I would much prefer calling to raising he, for the reasons mentioned, and I think we have just enough equity to call.
If we're folding AJo here, are we exploitable? What stronger hands (other than flushes, which aren't a huge percentage) are we playing this way and then calling the river with?
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