Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 536
|
|
Will Villain call from the SB with T9s, QTs, KTo? Considering that the river is a 3 ( results FTW), we are losing to all of these along with AT, 99, and 44. I would put his value/play-back-at-you-semi-bluff range at (a few combos of AA to account for some overpairs that played the hand weirdly):
Code:
Board: Th Td 4c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.178% 30.24% 04.94% 306 50.00 { JdTs }
Hand 1: 64.822% 59.88% 04.94% 606 50.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, 99, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo, KTo }
If he's not calling from the SB with T9s or KTo, things get a little better, but not much:
Code:
Board: Th Td 4c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.952% 35.17% 04.78% 294 40.00 { JdTs }
Hand 1: 60.048% 55.26% 04.78% 462 40.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, 99, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, ATo }
The question is how often he is all-out bluffing, or deciding to just go with any pocket pair. Let's assume the latter:
Code:
Board: Th Td 4c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.390% 75.82% 01.57% 1935 40.00 { JdTs }
Hand 1: 22.610% 21.04% 01.57% 537 40.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, JJ-22, ATs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, ATo }
Now we have him crushed. So this hand really comes down to a read on how often he can make this play with a suboptimal hand.
My argument after the flop action would be to definitely check back this turn. That gives us an easy call or value bet on the river, and in spots like this, easy is good  . It gives him a chance to bluff the river with whatever he bluffed the flop with, and if he checks your bet is clearly for value. If he check/raises the river, I'm paying him off because if he is good enough to go for 3 check/raises with a hand that beats ours then gg him. Also, our hand is underrepped -- it looks like we could be going for thin value with JJ+ and might have to fold to the raise.
Of course, this changes entirely when we have AT on the turn, when we're doing well against an only-value range:
Code:
Board: Th Td 4c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.237% 43.05% 11.19% 1951 507.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 45.763% 34.58% 11.19% 1567 507.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, 99, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, ATo, KTo }
|