Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,439
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer
CO ($80.55)
Hero (Button) ($47.75)
SB ($25)
BB ($25.35)
UTG ($25) - Only nine hands on player. FWIW, he's been 50/25 in those nine hands. The best reads I have on player come from this hand; he posted UTG and check/called preflop. I'm going to assume his passiveness preflop translates into passiveness postflop. Though not always true, I have to make a generalization at this point.
MP ($27.75)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , K
UTG (poster) checks, 2 folds, Hero bets $1.25, 2 folds, UTG (poster) calls $1
I haz AKs, I raise for value. Standard.
Flop: ($2.85) K , J, 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2
I flopped a TPTK. I expect villain's calling range to be wide here (again, I'm assuming fish). {Kx, Jx, QT, T9, PPs} all come to mind.
Turn: ($6.85) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.75, UTG raises to $12.50, Hero folds
Sweet. I got check-raised by a player that I assume to be passive. Here we see Beluga's Theorem at work. I cannot really think of anything I beat here. I really don't imagine villain playing his flush draws like this...but let's assume he does. We will also assume villain never folds his flush draw to my shove. Using the EV equation: 0 = 32.35x - 18(1-x) where x = my equity, my shove of $18 would need an equity of 35.75% to be breakeven. Villain would need to have a whole bunch of flush draws in addition to his {KJ,55,33} for my shove to be even close to breakeven. Again, villain probably doesn't play his flush draws very aggressively and this is a standard fold (IMO).
Total pot: $14.35 | Rake: $0.70
Results:
UTG didn't show
Outcome: UTG won $13.65
OK...so a standard hand, right? I agree. However, this is a spot where I would usually think "OMGFISH, I SHOVE." However, this thinking really makes no sense. It probably should be the opposite: "OMGFISH RAISED? SNAPFOLD!" Fish are usually passive. Here, we're not sure villain is a fish, but we will make that assumption. In the past, I probably would have shoved this and be stunned when I saw KJ or a set. It's sad really. I guess I just wanted to post this hand to show that I'm trying to grow as a player...
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