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littleogre
Old 11-01-2009, 06:13 AM #12 (permalink)  

Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
Quote:
Originally Posted by Belt
Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
. This is a pretty easy call. honestly surprised that so many of you say to fold. look at it this way villain is either betting a made hand or busted draw. with the exception of paired Qs what made hands is he betting?
Dude you are aware that you must have at least 35% equity to make this call break even, right?

Say he pushes with straights, sets, 2pair hands with Q, busted flush draws with Qd and unpaired busted flush draws. Lets count;

Str8s with 97 (12 combos)
Str8s with J9 (16 combos)
Sets (15 combos)
Two Pairs with Q (36 combos)
Busted flush draws width Qd (excluding 2pr ones) (7 combos)
Unpaired busted flush draws (21 combos)

He pushes total 107 combos. 21 / 107 = ~20%

Since 35 > 20, no need to be surprised when people say it is a fold.

By the way,
Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
The only AQ i fear is AdQd.
You are the one who is holding the Ad. So no need to be afraid of AdQd.
Exactly what set is he gonna show up with here ? If he flopped a set sure he may check the flop with his hand but most 2nl players do not have the patience to slow play 2 streets when they are not getting action. Sure he could of had a set of 8s on the turn. My problem with that is i showed aggression on the turn so he would have no need to lead out on the river. A set of Qs is also hard to believe.

Unless the guy is an uber nit Qs would have raised long before the river. When he insta shoves the river to me he is saying please fold mister. If we put him on a range AK-a2 suited diamonds and AQo and kq-kts and jt-j7 suited and J(/J& off . Then add suited connectors 34-t9. To finish his range we add 75 off. Then we estimate that he is only ever betting top pair plus and busted flush and str8 draws our equity is 49.3 according stoxev
Pretty sure that is more then 35.

Sorry for got about QT/Q6/Q8 suited and off. our equity then drops to 43 percent