Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Nu Zuland bru
Posts: 939
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Alrighty, here's the HH from yesterday I've picked. I'm finding double barrelling to be quite profitable at 25NL, so I'm looking to make sure I do it in the right spots.
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 27/5 and has never folded to a contiunation bet (out of only three opportunities, but I still think it's worth noting)
Stacks:UTG caseybicking ($10.35)
CO jojo972 ($14.60)
BTN Hero ($50.80)
SB Parseval ($34.20)
BB quick653 ($26.70)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BTN  
caseybicking calls $0.25, jojo972 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, quick653 calls $1.25, caseybicking folds, jojo972 folds
Flop:    ($3.60, 2 players)
quick653 checks, Hero bets $3, quick653 calls $3
Turn:  ($9.60, 2 players)
quick653 checks, Hero bets $6.50 ...
Preflop: I iso the two limpers and the big blind calls, which from a decent player I might see as a sign of a bit of strength, since the two limpers are still to act behind him, but this guy was basically a fish, so I think his range is still fairly wide: {A5+, K8s+, KTo+, QT+, JT, 54s+, 22+}
Flop: I flop pretty hard, with an OESD+FD, and so I fire out a fairly large continuation bet. Going off stats, villain is never folding to a flop bet, so I've got like 63% equity against his range.
Turn: I miss the turn, but I figure I've still got quite a bit of equity, and the ace should give me some fold equity, so I fire again, 'cause I think he has a tough time calling with his raggy 8's and 4's now. I'd say he's calling with {A5+, Ks8s, KsQs, 6s5s, 76s, 8s7s, 98s-JTs, 44, 88-99, TT+} (96+1+1+1+4+1+8+3+6+21 = 142 combos)
So he's folding 113/255 or 44% of the time.
I'm betting $6.50 into $9.60, so for it to be a profitable pure bluff, I need him to fold at least 6.5/16.1 or 40% of the time.
So this is profitable as a pure bluff, not to mention the shit ton of equity I have if his range his tighter than I'm thinking.
PS. While doing this analysis I decided I was going to write a program over then next couple of days which, given a board and a hand (eg. 6h7cKd2c, A4o) will tell me how many combinations of the hand there are, 'cause I'm sick of adding them up each time I analyse a bluff.
But getting good at counting hand combinations quickly is probably a useful skill to have, so I might keep doing it by hand. Thoughts?
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