Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,436
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by acoss3006
Thanks fellow Aussie.
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No worries mate!
Quote:
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Originally Posted by acoss3006
For instance, even if the villians only folded 50% of the time (conservative) and called our shove the other 50%, and assuming we only won half the flips when they call (also conservative), its still massively EV, as:
Villians folds = 0.5 * 900 = 450
Villian calls (but we win showdown) = 0.25 * 6000 = 1500
Villian calls (we lose at showdown) = 0.25 * -3000 = -750
Overall EV = 450+1500-750 = 1200
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You're on the right track, but you're actually far better than 50% against the average $1.20 player's calling range. This is from Pokerstove, if you don't have it, download it (it's free):
equity win tie
Hand 0: 65.000% 62.22% 02.78% { AKs }
Hand 1: 35.000% 32.22% 02.78% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, A2o+, KTo+, QJo }
Even against a much tighter range you're still better than 50% to win:
equity win tie
Hand 0: 54.259% 48.08% 06.18% { AKs }
Hand 1: 45.741% 39.56% 06.18% { 77+, AJs+, AJo+ }
One other really relevant consideration here is the fact that it's the bubble and losing the hand puts you out in 4th whilst winning it doesn't guarantee you 1st place (put another way, chips you lose here are worth far more than chips you win). Look in the FAQs for a discussion of the Independent Chip Model (ICM) for an explanation of this.
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